| SymbolName · Range · Price | Turn Zone SignalWatch Bottom · Exit · Neutral | StageVerdict · Phase · Track | CESCoil Energy | Smart MoneyIQ · delivery · ATS | Long-Term CaseArchetype · Decline | ValuationScore | Fib / S·RNear support or resistance | VerdictAction · Timing | CoverageUpdate · Sources | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
◉MONITOR LISTBTZ & PTZ < 20 · sorted by signal strength ↓ 36 symbols | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BANKINDIA ▼ ₹11635%₹178 ₹138 +0.1% | Conflicted ⚡ HiVol 5% | Markup · LATE Building the Base — Institutions accumulating Markup PhaseNo event⚠ UTAD FAILED | 53/150 BUILDING | Mixed · 44 OBV↑ ▲ Smart money buying @ ₹138 FII 6.9% ▼ -0.4% Jun'26 DII 14.0% – +0.0% Jun'26 DII 1(+0) – ↓1 | A · Severe Deep past decline — re-rating story | 88/100 Cheap DY 3.2% FV ₹330 +58% MoS | 89.0% Fib ₹138 (-0.1%) Darvas Box: ₹134 (tested 5×) – ₹154 (tested 2×) Watch ₹145 (5%↑) DZ +2.5% SZ +8.3% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BANKINDIA
₹137.94
+0.18 (+0.1%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY BANK · Midcap · 🟡 10/26 accumulating — Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +0.5% SOS stale
YTD -4.1%1Y +15.9%3Y +60.8%5Y +113.5%-36.4% from ATH
Market Cycle
Buying Frenzy Peak
16dA 241d ▶BBuying Frenzy 302dC 2dD 57dE 35% of 52-week range
₹116 (52W Low)
₹178 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 18 vs PTZ 12Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
★ TURNAROUND · SEVERE
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 419dphase: MEDIUM
⚠ Aged SC
⬇ RECOILING ★
✓ MARKUP FIRM
Evidence
MEDIUM · capped
Evidence 12✓/7✗
SM: ACCUM 3/5
▼ BTZ DECAYING — weakening +0.0
Mixed · IQ 44
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
↓ -9% / ↑ +25% · n=2
⚡ BOS (69b ago) · SS 1/5
AVWAP ✓ +4.2%
AVWAP✗ -5.1%
W= 45
TF: 0/5
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (5 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 5% big days
LU↓
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Smart money Accumulating·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 35% of 52W range (8/13 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has suffered a severe drawdown (55–70%+), qualifying as a turnaround setup — historically 57–65% of setups in this range reached 10x+ over 5–7 years. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (12/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting · ⚠ signals weakening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹149.33. UPTREND ACTIVEStrong Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Smart money still accumulating; Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.1% · Vol 0.3× This week-1.5% · Vol contractingsmart money accumulating Past month-5.5% · vs Nifty +0% (3mo) · 52W range: 35%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 53/150 · character change 3 sessions ago ✓ Approaching a demand (support) zone 2.5% below at ₹134.52 — watch for a bounce. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 26.2% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the lower half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 40/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗ Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang.12✓ 7✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
12
↳ MKDN→FLATRS: Top 44% ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓🏦 Smart money footprint: large investors actively buying — confirmed 6w ago (volume/delivery-based, not ownership data — FII/DII shareholding doesn't yet confirm this). 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 26.2% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the lower half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 40/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price just above prior swing low (₹138, 0.1% away) — watching for break vs hold ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹138, 0.1% away) — confluence with technical level 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Volume Profile Support: High-Volume Node within 3% below current price — institutional memory support. HVNs represent where the most historical volume traded; prior buyers absorbed selling at these levels and will likely do so again. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Stochastic 18 — deeply oversold; confirms RSI bottom context 🌡 Regime ✓Approaching a demand (support) zone 2.5% below at ₹134.52 — watch for a bounce. ✓ATR 4th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible ✓Hurst 0.38 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. 📋 Fundamentals ✓P/E 5.7x — deeply undervalued; bottom entry has value support ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 13% — growing business; supports accumulation
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
7
⚠ UTAD FAILED · 8d ago ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗SC-low not yet retested — Phase B support floor unvalidated; risk of a deeper shakeout to test lows ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.4% -> 6.9%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 5.7x is above the estimated justified range (1-1x) for its ROCE x reinvestment growth profile
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1.7Y agoFresh (10%) Turn ZoneDemand Zone LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Severe decline · 36% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹138.02 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹139.40 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
39.9%
-0.9σ
-4.8 vs 45% med
±1σ band 39–53%
Weekly delivery ▲
51.2%
+1.5σ
+6.5 vs 45% med
±1σ band 38–48%
Monthly delivery ▲
48.4%
+1.2σ
+5.9 vs 42% med
±1σ band 38–47%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 44 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹137.62
Close +0.23% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹17,515
0.68x vs normal
Turnover
0.33x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
39.9%
z-score -0.7σ
mth z +1.5σ
Open Gap: -0.12%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓
Promoter73.4%→ flat FII6.9% ↓0.4% DII14.0%→ flat Public5.8% ↑0.4% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →↓1
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20261 inst. Total holders1 (+0) Decreasing stake↓ 1 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 44 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹137.62
Close +0.23% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹17,515
0.68x vs normal
Turnover
0.33x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
39.9%
z-score -0.7σ
mth z +1.5σ
Open Gap: -0.12%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Extension
57% of prior decline recovered — momentum extending toward prior highs
₹138 Decline Low ₹85
Target ₹271
61.8% 78.6% 100% 127.2% 161.8%
₹143 ₹158 ₹178 ₹204 ₹236 61.8% RECOVERY ₹143 +3.5% 78.6% NEAR FULL ₹158 +14.9% FULL RECOVERY ₹178 +29.3% DEMAND ZONE ₹135 -2.5% ₹138…₹135 SUPPLY ZONE ₹149 +8.3% ₹147…₹149 Critical Level
₹136.85(-0.8%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹149.33 (+8.3%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹134.52 (-2.5%) ₹145+5.4% ₹175+26.8%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termUp (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.38 (mean-reverting) · ADX 14 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Darvas Box — 26wk range
INSIDE BOX
Top: ₹154 (2× tested)
Bottom: ₹134 (5× tested)
Width: 15.2%
Classic read: accumulate near the box bottom (₹134), wait for a confirmed close above the box top (₹154) before treating a breakout as validated — the box alone is a range description, not an entry signal.
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
18/ 100 W: COUNTER ↓ G6 setup 8 · G2 zone 4 · G3 div 4 · G5 inst 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 · LQ LPS 1 · G4 osc 1 · G1 event 0 · RS RS -4 Top reasons Price is near a known demand zone OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Price is coiling in an early-stage Volatility Contraction Pattern
Continuation Watch Zones
₹1455.4%↑ · SUPPLY_ZONE, PIVOT_CLUSTER · HIGH ₹17526.8%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, FIB_1.000 · HIGH ₹15210.2%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, SUPPLY_ZONE · MEDIUM Prior decline ₹85 → ₹178
Institutional Quality
44
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
53
/ 150
Bias votes:▼▲––▲▼–––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day persistent_compression: HV20_pct=5≤10 AND HV60_pct=18≤20 Wyckoff_PhaseB (+5)
Valuation
88
/ 100
Undervalued
VALUE TRAP RISK
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹330 +58.2% margin of safety
Momentum
37
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 37% of 288 Midcap
VALUE TRAP RISK
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-2.6% below Weekly RSI43 Monthly ADX14 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.38 — mean-reverting NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Mean-reverting (H=0.38) RSI 43 Long-Term Compounding Case A severely beaten-down quality business. Deep declines like this historically create the strongest long-term recovery opportunities over a 5–7 year horizon. FII -0.4% QoQ P/E 5.7× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Severe decline, 36% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹67K CrP/E 5.7xP/B 0.7xROE 12%ROCE 6%Rev 5yr +13%/yrPft 5yr +39%/yrRev QoQ +2.7%Pft QoQ +7.0%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 12% ROCE 6% Sales Growth (QoQ) +3% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Severe) Currently Unloved 36% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -80% Revenue Growth Level +13%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 80% peak-to-trough (Severe) — 57-65% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest, median ultimate multiple 12-16x Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +39% Rev 5yr CAGR +13% Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 3-4% Justified P/E 1-1x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.93x P/B Ratio 0.7x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
POONAWALLA ▼ ₹36148%₹570 ₹462 -1.1% | Conflicted ⚡ HiVol 6% | Markup · LATE Final Shakeout Test — Awaiting confirmation Markup PhaseNo event | 42/150 BUILDING | Mixed · 51 OBV↑ ▲ Smart money buying @ ₹471 FII 11.0% ▲ +0.8% Jun'26 DII 16.7% ▲ +4.6% Jun'26 DII 4(+1) ▲ ↑1 ↓1 +2new −1ex | A · Severe Deep past decline — re-rating story | 29/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹158 -193% above | 62.0% Fib ₹460 (-0.3%) Watch ₹502 (9%↑) DZ +7.2% SZ +9.2% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
POONAWALLA
₹461.55
−5.25 (-1.1%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY FIN SERVICE · Midcap · 🟡 34/70 accumulating — Partial Rotation RS vs Sector +14.2% SOS staleMF BUILDING 5mo · 18f
YTD -4.4%1Y -8.1%3Y +10.7%5Y +225.8%-19.1% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
15dA 17dB 155d ▶CTesting 1dD 42dE 47% of 52-week range
₹361 (52W Low)
₹570 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 22 vs PTZ 18Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
★ TURNAROUND · SEVERE
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 472dphase: MEDIUM✓ INST ALIGNED↻ FULL CYCLE
⚠ Aged SC
⬇ RECOILING ★
Evidence
MEDIUM
Evidence 18✓/5✗
SM: ACCUM 2/5
Trend + Delivery: Bull
Mixed · IQ 51
Pattern
Established (4w)
↓ -16% / ↑ ≥+500% · n=2
⚡ BOS (5b ago) · SS 1/5
AVWAP ✓ +11.0%
AVWAP↑ +5.0%
Sqz↑
W= 56
★ FII +0.75pp DII +4.60pp (QoQ)
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (65d)
⚠ Price data (4 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 6% big days
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Smart money Accumulating·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 48% of 52W range (14/18 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has suffered a severe drawdown (55–70%+), qualifying as a turnaround setup — historically 57–65% of setups in this range reached 10x+ over 5–7 years. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (18/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting · signals strengthening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹503.80. UPTREND ACTIVEStrong Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Smart money still accumulating; Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday-1.1% · Vol 1.2× · gap -0.4% This week-3.7% · Vol expandingsmart money accumulating Past month-2.3% · vs Nifty +11% (3mo) · 52W range: 48%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 42/150 · structure break 5 sessions ago ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 49 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗ P/E 53.0x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover18✓ 5✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
18
⌄ EARLY ABSORPTION ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested 6× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. ✓🏦 Smart money footprint: large investors actively buying — confirmed 4w ago. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 13.0% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the lower half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 36/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price just above prior swing low (₹466, 1.0% away) — watching for break vs hold ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹460, 0.3% away) — confluence with technical level 📦 Volume & Flow ✓CMF +0.119 — money flowing in, institutional buying — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 49 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓TTM Squeeze firing ↑ 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (10w ago) — trend intact ✓Hurst 0.44 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.8% -> 11.0%) ✓DII buying QoQ (+4.6% -> 16.7%) 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 24% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Profit QoQ +21% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
5
RS: Bottom 26% 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🏛 Institutional ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 53.0x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗P/E is 1.20x its own 5yr median (44x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗ROE 6% — low returns; quality concern at bottom
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1.8Y agoFresh (7%) Turn ZoneGolden Cross LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Severe decline · 19% off ATH ◆ Smart Money Signal(recent daily data) Institutional Activity Present: Block trades 1.6× normal with neutral-to-positive delivery. Smart money is active — watch price reaction to determine intent. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹471.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹416.80 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it ⚠ Delivery Signal SuppressedNear ex-dividend date (±3 bars) — delivery SM signal not counted (SM-DIV-1) Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
61.8%
+1.4σ
+10.9 vs 51% med
±1σ band 43–59%
Weekly delivery ▼
33.9%
-2.1σ
-16.9 vs 51% med
±1σ band 42–57%
Monthly delivery ▲
53.4%
+1.8σ
+14.0 vs 39% med
±1σ band 32–47%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 51 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹457.46
Close +0.89% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹25,951
1.61x vs normal
Turnover
1.08x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
61.8%
z-score +1.3σ
mth z +1.4σ
Open Gap: -0.43%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.9% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII buying ↑
Promoter59.0% ↓4.9% FII11.0% ↑0.8% DII16.7% ↑4.6% Public12.8% ↓0.4% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders4 ↑1↑1 ↓1 +2new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 4 inst. Total holders4 (+1) Increasing stake↑ 1 Decreasing stake↓ 1 New entrants+ 2 Full exits− 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 51 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹457.46
Close +0.89% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹25,951
1.61x vs normal
Turnover
1.08x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
61.8%
z-score +1.3σ
mth z +1.4σ
Open Gap: -0.43%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.9% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Extension
Near full recovery (81%) — approaching prior resistance; break above confirms new markup
₹462 Decline Low ₹267
Target ₹746
100% 127.2% 161.8% 200%
₹506 ₹572 ₹654 ₹746 FULL RECOVERY ₹506 +9.7% 127.2% TARGET ₹572 +23.8% 161.8% TARGET ₹654 +41.8% DEMAND ZONE ₹428 -7.2% ₹434…₹428 SUPPLY ZONE ₹504 +9.2% ₹496…₹504 Critical Level
₹428.10(-7.2%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹503.80 (+9.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹428.10 (-7.2%) ₹502+8.8% ₹569+23.3%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.44 (mean-reverting) · ADX 23 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
22/ 100Top 11% of D_MARKUP (n=9) W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) G5 inst 6 · G6 setup 6 · G1 event 5 · BOS BOS 2 · G3 div 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 · LQ LPS 2 · RS RS -4 Top reasons The panic-selling peak bar has a long lower shadow — the sell-off was rejected within the same session The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired bullish — the compression is releasing OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal
Continuation Watch Zones
₹5028.8%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, FIB_1.000 · HIGH ₹56923.3%↑ · FIB_1.272, PIVOT · HIGH ₹4763.0%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW Prior decline ₹267 → ₹506
Institutional Quality
51
/ 100
Top 23% in universe
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
42
/ 150
Bias votes:▼▲––▲▼▲––3↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired bullish — the compression is releasing Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days
Valuation
29
/ 100
Expensive
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹158 192.6% above fair value
Momentum
55
/ 100
Average
Top 45% of 288 Midcap
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Mixed vs EMA 200+3.4% above Weekly RSI49 Monthly ADX23 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.44 — mean-reverting NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Mean-reverting (H=0.44) RSI 49 ⬆ GX 52d -1.6% Long-Term Compounding Case A severely beaten-down quality business. Deep declines like this historically create the strongest long-term recovery opportunities over a 5–7 year horizon. FII +0.8% QoQ DII +4.6% QoQ PROM ↓ -4.9% P/E 53.0× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Severe decline, 19% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹42K CrP/E 53.0xP/B 3.6xROE 6%ROCE 8%Rev 5yr +24%/yrPft 5yr +24%/yrRev QoQ +10.2%Pft QoQ +20.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 6% ROCE 8% Sales Growth (QoQ) +10% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Severe) Currently Unloved 19% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -80% Revenue Growth Level +24%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 80% peak-to-trough (Severe) — 57-65% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest, median ultimate multiple 12-16x Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +24% Rev 5yr CAGR +24% Cash-Flow Stage Startup CFO / CFI / CFF − / − / + Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 5-6% Justified P/E 13-17x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.20x P/B Ratio 3.6x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VTL ▼ ₹38656%₹688 ₹554 -1.7% | Neutral | Markup · LATE Final Shakeout Test — Awaiting confirmation Markup PhaseNo event | 34/150 BUILDING | Mixed · 44 OBV↑ ▲ Smart money buying @ ₹567 FII 6.1% ▲ +0.4% Jun'26 DII 14.7% ▼ -1.3% Jun'26 DII 3(+0) – ↓2 | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 50/100 Fair DY 0.8% FV ₹468 -18% above | 79.0% Fib ₹555 (+0.1%) Watch ₹676 (22%↑) DZ +14.1% SZ +24.2% | HOLD Markup running — trail stop | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
VTL
₹554.00
−9.60 (-1.7%)
25-Sep-26
HEALTHCARE · Midcap · 🟡 7/15 accumulating — Partial RotationSOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 13f
YTD +26.6%1Y +27.2%3Y +40.9%5Y +54.7%-19.5% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
2dA 22dB 144d ▶CTesting 3dD 50dE 55% of 52-week range
₹386 (52W Low)
₹688 (52W High)
Stage
MARKUP — LATE ◆ base: CONDITION★★☆
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 385dphase: MEDIUM
⚠ Aged SC
✓ MARKUP FIRM
Evidence
MEDIUM · capped
Evidence 15✓/11✗
SM: ACCUM 3/5
Mixed · IQ 44
Pattern
Established (4w)
↑ +1% / ↓ -6% · n=3
⚡ BOS (68b ago) · SS 2/5
AVWAP ✓ +10.2%
AVWAP✗ -4.4%
Rising Ch 6%
Sqz
W= 49
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (2 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Smart money Accumulating·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 56% of 52W range (11/18 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting · signals strengthening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹688.00. UPTREND ACTIVEStrong Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Smart money still accumulating; Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday-1.7% · Vol 0.1× This week-4.2% · Vol contractingsmart money accumulating Past month-8.1% · vs Nifty -9% (3mo) · 52W range: 56%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 34/150 · character change 3 sessions ago ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+11.804) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✓ Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 36.1% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the upper half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 76/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 41 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.15✓ 11✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
15
↔ BLOCK BUY/SELL ₹127Cr — MATCHEDRS: Top 15% ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested once (secondary test) — support validated once; additional tests strengthen the floor ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. ✓🏦 Smart money footprint: large investors actively buying — confirmed 0w ago (volume/delivery-based, not ownership data — FII/DII shareholding doesn't yet confirm this). 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 36.1% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the upper half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 76/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹550, 0.7% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Block deal present but facilitated (same entity on both sides) — no net institutional direction ✓Up/Down vol ratio 8.85× — buyers committing 8.8× more capital than sellers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+11.804) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✓Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze: BB bandwidth has contracted inside the Keltner Channel — volatility coiling to multi-week lows. Squeezes historically precede sharp directional expansions; in a bullish/neutral regime the resolution bias is to the upside. 🌡 Regime ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (31w ago) — trend intact 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.4% -> 6.1%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Profit QoQ +67% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis ✓Debt/Equity 0.2x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
11
📊 Price & Structure ✗Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% above current price (at 555). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. ✗CLV(5d) -0.45 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 41 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🏛 Institutional ✗DII selling QoQ (-1.3%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E is 1.59x its own 5yr median (13x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗ROE 7% — low returns; quality concern at bottom ✗P/E 20.7x is above the estimated justified range (5-6x) for its ROCE x reinvestment growth profile ✗Operating margin contracting -4.7pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — profitability weakening
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1.5Y agoFresh (2%) Turn Zone LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 19% off ATH ◆ Facilitated Trade1 block/bulk deal · last 20 days · ₹127.5 Cr — no confirmed institutional buyer — MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED ↔ MatchedSame entity on buy & sell: MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED — facilitated/arbitrage, no directional intent ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹567.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
37.0%
-0.8σ
-10.8 vs 48% med
±1σ band 35–56%
Weekly delivery ▲
40.0%
-0.2σ
-4.7 vs 45% med
±1σ band 30–53%
Monthly delivery ▲
49.5%
+1.1σ
+13.2 vs 36% med
±1σ band 21–48%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
↔ BLOCK BUY/SELL ₹127Cr — MATCHED NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 44 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹557.74
Close -0.67% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,615
0.71x vs normal
Turnover
0.07x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
37.0%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z +1.1σ
Open Gap: +0.07%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.1x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing. Close -0.7% below VWAP — sellers dominated the session. Bearish intraday structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII selling ↓
Promoter65.1% →0.0% FII6.1% ↑0.4% DII14.7% ↓1.3% Public14.2% ↑1.0% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders3 →↓2
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20263 inst. Total holders3 (+0) Decreasing stake↓ 2 Unchanged 1 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 44 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹557.74
Close -0.67% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,615
0.71x vs normal
Turnover
0.07x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
37.0%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z +1.1σ
Open Gap: +0.07%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.1x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing. Close -0.7% below VWAP — sellers dominated the session. Bearish intraday structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹554 Base Low ₹543
Swing High ₹597
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹576
₹570
₹564
38.2% SUPPORT
₹576
50% MIDPOINT
₹570
61.8% GOLDEN
₹564
DEMAND ZONE ₹476 -14.1% ₹487…₹476 SUPPLY ZONE ₹688 +24.2% ₹677…₹688 Critical Level
₹543.35(-1.9%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹688.00 (+24.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹476.15 (-14.1%) ₹676+22.1% ₹564+1.8%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.48 (random walk) · ADX 13 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
20/ 100Top 22% of D_MARKUP (n=9) W: NEUTRAL G4 osc 5 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · G6 setup 4 · G5 inst 3 · G2 zone 2 · LQ LPS 1 · G3 div 1 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events Volume on up-days is running well ahead of volume on down-days — genuine buying pressure, not just drift OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal
Continuation Watch Zones
₹67622.1%↑ · PIVOT, SUPPLY_ZONE · MEDIUM ₹5641.8%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW ₹5906.6%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW Prior decline ₹338 → ₹419
Institutional Quality
44
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
34
/ 150
Bias votes:▼▲–▲▲▼–––3↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal A large institutional block trade bought shares recently
Valuation
50
/ 100
Fair Value
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹468 18.5% above fair value
Momentum
49
/ 100
Average
Bot 49% of 288 Midcap
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-1.3% below Weekly RSI41 Monthly ADX13 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.48 — random walk Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL No clear momentum (H=0.48) RSI 41 Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.4% QoQ DII -1.3% QoQ P/E 20.7× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 19% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹18K CrMargin 3v3yr -4.7ppP/E 20.7xP/B 1.5xROE 7%ROCE 9%D/E 0.2xRev 5yr +10%/yrPft 5yr +12%/yrRev QoQ +8.2%Pft QoQ +66.7%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 7% ROCE 9% Sales Growth (QoQ) +8% Debt / Equity 0.18x CFO/EBITDA 59% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 19% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -49% Revenue Growth Level +10%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 49% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +12% Rev 5yr CAGR +10% Margin 3v3yr -4.7pp Debt Trend -0.10x Cash-Flow Stage Growth CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / + Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 5-6% Justified P/E 5-6x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.59x P/B Ratio 1.5x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SUNPHARMA ▼ ₹1,54861%₹2,047 ₹1,852 +0.1% | Bottom | Markup · LATE Demand Taking Over — Price gaining strength Markup PhaseNo event | 27/150 FORMING | Moderate Inst. · 65 Neutral flow FII 14.5% ▼ -1.4% Jun'26 DII 22.1% ▲ +1.1% Jun'26 DII 5(+1) ▲ ↑2 +2new −1ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 21/100 Expensive DY 0.8% FV ₹631 -193% above | 89.0% Fib ₹1,846 (-0.3%) Watch ₹2,001 (8%↑) DZ +14.5% SZ +7.2% | HOLD Markup running — trail stop 3×Black Crows | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SUNPHARMA
₹1,852.20
+2.30 (+0.1%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY PHARMA · Largecap · 🟡 14/39 accumulating — Partial Rotation RS vs Sector -7.7% SOS staleMF NEUTRAL 5mo
YTD +7.7%1Y +12.3%3Y +66.6%5Y +187.1%-9.5% from ATH
Market Cycle
Demand Taking Over
16dA 1dB 30dC 4d ▶DUptrend 1dE 60% of 52-week range
₹1,548 (52W Low)
₹2,047 (52W High)
Stage
MARKUP — LATE ◆ base: CONDITION★★☆
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 245dphase: MEDIUM✓ INST ALIGNED↻ FULL CYCLE✓ DEMAND CONFIRMED
⚠ Aged SC
⬇ RECOILING ★
Evidence
MEDIUM
Evidence 16✓/12✗
FII↔ DII↔ BUYING
Trend + Delivery: Bull
Moderate Inst. · IQ 65
Pattern
Established (5w)
↓ -0% / ↑ +76% · n=4
⚡ BOS (18b ago) · SS 2/5
AVWAP ✓ +4.4%
AVWAP↑ +6.3%
Sqz↓
W↓ 48
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
Cov 20/20
Index: Watch
Trade & Risk
LU↓
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Trend continuation·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 61% of 52W range (12/20 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting · signals strengthening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹1,984.80. UPTREND ACTIVEStrong Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Supply absorbed at the base; Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.1% · Vol 0.4× · gap +0.5% This week+0.8% · Vol contracting Past month-2.5% · vs Nifty +2% (3mo) · 52W range: 61%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 27/150 · character change 4 sessions ago ✓ Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+7.608) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 43 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ Money flow is negative (MFI 29, CMF -0.17) — selling pressure is dominant on volume.16✓ 12✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
16
⚡ Cycle Stage ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 25.1% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year best (own-history percentile 98/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹1842, 0.6% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹1846, 0.3% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+7.608) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✓MFI 29 — deeply oversold, seller exhaustion 📈 Trend Momentum ✓Momentum Score 65/100 — trend intact vs Largecap peers, supports staying invested 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (42w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 48) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+1.1% -> 22.1%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 12% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.1x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
12
RS: Bottom 48%▲ 3×Black Crows (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗SC-low not yet retested — Phase B support floor unvalidated; risk of a deeper shakeout to test lows 📊 Price & Structure ✗Three Black Crows pattern on the weekly chart. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 29, CMF -0.17) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.59× — sellers committing 1.7× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 43 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.57 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-1.4% -> 14.5%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 36.4x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover 🕯 Pattern ✗Weekly candle: Three Black Crows (bearish — sellers still in control)
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1Y agoFresh (6%) Turn ZoneGolden Cross LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 10% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹1,933.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
59.0%
-0.7σ
-5.8 vs 65% med
±1σ band 57–71%
Weekly delivery ▲
70.2%
+1.7σ
+6.3 vs 64% med
±1σ band 59–67%
Monthly delivery ▲
66.1%
+0.9σ
+2.2 vs 64% med
±1σ band 62–66%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 65 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹1,849.49
Close +0.15% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹28,320
0.69x vs normal
Turnover
0.43x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
59.0%
z-score -0.8σ
mth z +0.5σ
Open Gap: +0.48%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter54.5%→ flat FII14.5% ↓1.4% DII22.1% ↑1.1% Public8.8% ↑0.3% Pledge0.0% +0.0% DII Holders5 ↑1↑2 +2new −1exit
Sector MF: NEUTRAL · 5mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 5 inst. Total holders5 (+1) Increasing stake↑ 2 New entrants+ 2 Full exits− 1 Unchanged 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 65 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹1,849.49
Close +0.15% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹28,320
0.69x vs normal
Turnover
0.43x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
59.0%
z-score -0.8σ
mth z +0.5σ
Open Gap: +0.48%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹1,852 Base Low ₹1,828
Swing High ₹1,985
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹1,925
₹1,906
₹1,888
38.2% SUPPORT
₹1,925
50% MIDPOINT
₹1,906
61.8% GOLDEN
₹1,888
DEMAND ZONE ₹1,584 -14.5% ₹1,602…₹1,584 SUPPLY ZONE ₹1,985 +7.2% ₹1,968…₹1,985 Critical Level
₹1,828.00(-1.3%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹1,984.80 (+7.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹1,583.70 (-14.5%) ₹2,001+8.1% ₹1,912+3.2%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.57 (trending) · ADX 19 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
27/ 100Top 1% of D_MARKUP (n=9) W: COUNTER ↓ G1 event 8 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · G6 setup 4 · G4 osc 3 · G5 inst 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 · BOS BOS 2 · LQ LPS 1 · G3 div 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events supply_exhaustion_confirmed ratio=0.25 (+3) Delivery % has been trending up recently
Continuation Watch Zones
₹2,0018.1%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, SUPPLY_ZONE · MEDIUM ₹1,9123.2%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW Prior decline ₹1,068 → ₹1,162
Institutional Quality
65
/ 100
Top 2% in universe
Moderate Inst.
Coil Energy Score
27
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––––▲▼––1↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day This is the narrowest daily range in 7 sessions — classic pre-breakout compression The trading range is unusually wide — more room for a big move once it resolves
Valuation
21
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹631 193.4% above fair value
Momentum
65
/ 100
Above Average
Top 35% of 146 Largecap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200+1.4% above Weekly RSI43 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX19 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.57 — trending Weekly candleThree Black Crows NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Trending momentum (H=0.57) RSI 43 ⬆ GX 212d +5.0% Three Black Crows: Three consecutive strong red candles, each closing near the low. Sellers are firmly in control — sustained, organised selling pressure. Vol & Turn Zone ▸SC: 2.7× vol · AR: 0.7× — weak Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -1.4% QoQ DII +1.1% QoQ P/E 36.4× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 10% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹4.6L CrMargin 3v3yr +1.7ppP/E 36.4xP/B 5.3xROE 16%ROCE 20%D/E 0.1xRev 5yr +12%/yrPft 5yr +17%/yrRev QoQ +4.7%Pft QoQ +7.0%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 16% ROCE 20% Sales Growth (QoQ) +5% Debt / Equity 0.06x CFO/EBITDA 60% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 10% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -53% Revenue Growth Level +12%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 53% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +17% Rev 5yr CAGR +12% Margin 3v3yr +1.7pp Debt Trend -0.03x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 9-11% Justified P/E 12-18x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.98x P/B Ratio 5.3x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SMCGLOBAL ▼ LT OPP · ~1.2Y ago ₹5477%₹95 ₹86 +0.6% | Conflicted | Markup · LATE Uptrend in Progress — Trail your stop Markup PhaseNo event | 32/150 BUILDING | Mixed · 42 Neutral flow FII 2.1% ▼ -0.3% Jun'26 DII 0.0% – -0.0% Jun'26 | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 70/100 Fair DY 1.5% FV ₹89 +4% MoS | 38.0% Fib ₹85 (-0.5%) Watch ₹94 (10%↑) DZ +20.6% SZ +10.9% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SMCGLOBAL
₹85.60
+0.53 (+0.6%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY FIN SERVICE · Smallcap · 🟡 34/70 accumulating — Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +27.9% SOS staleMF BUILDING 5mo · 18f
YTD -6.0%1Y +25.2%3Y +127.9%5Y +139.1%-9.9% from ATH
Market Cycle
Uptrend in Progress
16dA 3dB 61dC 2dD 4d ▶EUptrend 76% of 52-week range
₹54 (52W Low)
₹95 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 12 vs PTZ 12Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 287dphase: MEDIUM↻ FULL CYCLE
⚠ Aged SC
Evidence
MEDIUM
Evidence 16✓/11✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — aging clock +0.0
★ LT Accumulation
Mixed · IQ 42
Pattern
Established (6w)
⚡ BOS (10b ago) · SS 4/5
AVWAP ✓ +8.4%
AVWAP↑ +12.0%
Sqz
W↑ 56
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
4/14 ACCUM · FINANCE
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Trend continuation·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 77% of 52W range (12/20 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (12/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting · ⚠ signals weakening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹94.90. UPTREND ACTIVEModerate Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.6% · Vol 0.3× This week+5.8% · Vol contracting Past month+8.0% · vs Nifty +25% (3mo) · 52W range: 77%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 32/150 · structure break 10 sessions ago · long-term accumulation window open ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 59 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✗ MACD Histogram Divergence (Class A (strong)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.16✓ 11✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
16
↔ BLOCK BUY/SELL ₹43Cr — MATCHED ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested 12× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹83, 2.6% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹85, 0.5% away) — confluence with technical level 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Block deal present but facilitated (same entity on both sides) — no net institutional direction ✓Up/Down vol ratio 11.52× — buyers committing 11.5× more capital than sellers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 59 (neutral), MACD above signal. 📈 Trend Momentum ✓Momentum Score 74/100 — trend intact vs Smallcap peers, supports staying invested 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (10w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 56) 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. 📋 Fundamentals ✓P/E 15.1x — reasonably valued; supports bottom thesis ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 16% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Profit QoQ +76% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
11
RS: Bottom 9% ⚠ ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗MACD Histogram Divergence (Class A (strong)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗MFI 85 — overbought, distribution setup likely ✗MACD histogram div (bear) (13d ago) — momentum diverging bearishly, caution on bounces 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.3% -> 2.1%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E is 2.16x its own 5yr median (7x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗CFO/EBITDA -18% — weak cash conversion; earnings quality caution ✗P/E 15.1x is above the estimated justified range (4-5x) for its ROCE x reinvestment growth profile
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT OPPORTUNITYUNDERWAYSC · ~1.2Y agoFresh (19%) Turn ZoneGolden CrossHH+HL Trend LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 10% off ATH ◆ Facilitated Trade3 block/bulk deals · last 20 days · ₹42.6 Cr — no confirmed institutional buyer — MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED, JUNOMONETA FINSOL PRIVATE LIMITED, NK SECURITIES RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED ↔ MatchedSame entity on buy & sell: JUNOMONETA FINSOL PRIVATE LIMITED, MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED, NK SECURITIES RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED — facilitated/arbitrage, no directional intent ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹79.10 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹78.55 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
52.3%
-0.3σ
-4.7 vs 57% med
±1σ band 42–71%
Weekly delivery ▼
52.2%
-0.3σ
-2.1 vs 54% med
±1σ band 44–70%
Monthly delivery ▲
64.7%
+1.7σ
+10.3 vs 54% med
±1σ band 48–60%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
↔ BLOCK BUY/SELL ₹43Cr — MATCHED NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 42 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹85.52
Close +0.09% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹9,829
0.68x vs normal
Turnover
0.28x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
52.3%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z +1.6σ
Open Gap: -0.13%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓
Promoter66.7% →0.0% FII2.1% ↓0.3% DII0.0% →0.0% Public31.1% ↑0.3% Pledge0.1%→ flat
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 42 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹85.52
Close +0.09% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹9,829
0.68x vs normal
Turnover
0.28x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
52.3%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z +1.6σ
Open Gap: -0.13%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹86 Base Low ₹78
Swing High ₹90
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹85
₹84
₹82
38.2% SUPPORT
₹85
50% MIDPOINT
₹84
61.8% GOLDEN
₹82
DEMAND ZONE ₹68 -20.6% ₹69…₹68 SUPPLY ZONE ₹95 +10.9% ₹93…₹95 Critical Level
₹77.66(-9.3%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹94.90 (+10.9%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹68.00 (-20.6%) ₹94+9.5% ₹89+4.0%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.46 (random walk) · ADX 39 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
12/ 100Bot 22% of D_MARKUP (n=9) W: NEUTRAL RS_BTZ RS 5 · BOS BOS 2 · G6 setup 2 · G4 osc 1 · G5 inst 1 · LQ LPS 1 · G1 event 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events bos_confirmed bars_ago=10 mult=0.71 (+2.1) Bollinger Bands are squeezed tight — a volatility contraction that often precedes a breakout
Continuation Watch Zones
₹949.5%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, SUPPLY_ZONE · MEDIUM ₹894.0%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW Prior decline ₹38 → ₹46 · limited pivot history
Institutional Quality
42
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
32
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––▼–––––0↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Repeated high-volume, price-holds-steady bars recently — buyers/sellers absorbing supply in a cluster, not just once A large institutional block trade bought shares recently
Valuation
70
/ 100
Fair Value
SWEET SPOT
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹89 +4.0% margin of safety
Momentum
74
/ 100
Above Average
Top 26% of 89 Smallcap
SWEET SPOT
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+15.6% above Weekly RSI59 Monthly ADX39 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.46 — random walk Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH No clear momentum (H=0.46) RSI 59 ⬆ GX 52d +7.7% MACD Div ▼ (13d ago) Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -0.3% QoQ DII -0.0% QoQ P/E 15.1× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 10% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹2K CrMargin 3v3yr -0.3ppP/E 15.1xP/B 1.4xROE 8%ROCE 11%D/E 1.6xRev 5yr +16%/yrPft 5yr -1%/yrRev QoQ -0.4%Pft QoQ +76.2%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 8% ROCE 11% Sales Growth (QoQ) -0% Debt / Equity 1.56x CFO/EBITDA -18% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 10% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -36% Revenue Growth Level +16%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 36% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR -1% Rev 5yr CAGR +16% Margin 3v3yr -0.3pp Debt Trend +0.70x Cash-Flow Stage Startup CFO / CFI / CFF − / − / + Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 6-7% Justified P/E 4-5x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 2.16x P/B Ratio 1.4x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IIFL ▼ LT OPP · ~1.4Y ago ₹40970%₹705 ₹617 -0.1% | Conflicted ⚡ HiVol 8% | Markup · LATE Final Shakeout Test — Awaiting confirmation Markup PhaseNo event | 29/150 FORMING | Mixed · 45 OBV↑ ▲ Smart money buying @ ₹621 FII 23.9% ▼ -4.3% Jun'26 DII 7.5% ▲ +0.4% Jun'26 DII 1(+0) – +1new −1ex | A · Severe Deep past decline — re-rating story | 57/100 Fair DY 0.6% FV ₹582 -6% above | 50.0% Fib ₹622 (+0.8%) Watch ₹691 (12%↑) DZ +8.0% SZ +9.5% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IIFL
₹616.95
−0.60 (-0.1%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY FIN SERVICE · Midcap · 🟡 34/70 accumulating — Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +33.6% SOS staleMF BUILDING 5mo · 18f
YTD +1.1%1Y +37.3%3Y +1.7%5Y +125.7%-12.5% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
2dA 15dB 63d ▶CTesting 1dD 2dE 70% of 52-week range
₹409 (52W Low)
₹705 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 19 vs PTZ 12Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
★ TURNAROUND · SEVERE
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 361dphase: MEDIUM↻ FULL CYCLE
⚠ Aged SC
⬇ RECOILING ★
✓ MARKUP FIRM
Evidence
MEDIUM · capped
Evidence 14✓/10✗
SM: ACCUM 2/5
★ LT Accumulation
Mixed · IQ 45
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
↓ -16% / ↑ +103% · n=4
⚡ BOS (23b ago) · SS 2/5
AVWAP ✓ +21.2%
AVWAP↑ +14.6%
W= 57
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (65d)
⚠ Price data (6 spikes)
Cov 20/20
4/14 ACCUM · FINANCE
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 8% big days
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Smart money Accumulating·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 70% of 52W range (10/16 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has suffered a severe drawdown (55–70%+), qualifying as a turnaround setup — historically 57–65% of setups in this range reached 10x+ over 5–7 years. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (12/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting · signals strengthening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹675.80. UPTREND ACTIVEStrong Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Smart money still accumulating; Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.1% · Vol 0.3× This week+2.8% · Vol contractingsmart money accumulating Past month-5.7% · vs Nifty +30% (3mo) · 52W range: 70%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 29/150 · long-term accumulation window open ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+13.598) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 50 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top.14✓ 10✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
14
⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested 3× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. ✓🏦 Smart money footprint: large investors actively buying — confirmed 1w ago (volume/delivery-based, not ownership data — FII/DII shareholding doesn't yet confirm this). 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 52.3% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year best (own-history percentile 96/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price just above prior swing low (₹627, 1.6% away) — watching for break vs hold — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+13.598) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. 📈 Trend Momentum ✓Momentum Score 74/100 — trend intact vs Midcap peers, supports staying invested 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (13w ago) — trend intact 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.4% -> 7.5%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓P/E 13.4x — reasonably valued; supports bottom thesis ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 18% — growing business; supports accumulation
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
10
RS: Bottom 6% ⚠ 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.8% above current price (at 622). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 50 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗MACD histogram div (bear) (30d ago) — momentum diverging bearishly, caution on bounces 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.61 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-4.3% -> 23.9%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E is 1.22x its own 5yr median (11x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗P/E 13.4x is above the estimated justified range (4-5x) for its ROCE x reinvestment growth profile
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT OPPORTUNITYUNDERWAYSC · ~1.4Y agoSporadic (28%) Turn ZoneGolden CrossHH+HL Trend LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Severe decline · 12% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹621.15 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹605.00 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
48.1%
-0.2σ
-1.4 vs 50% med
±1σ band 43–56%
Weekly delivery ▲
52.6%
+0.9σ
+5.2 vs 47% med
±1σ band 41–53%
Monthly delivery ▲
46.2%
+1.0σ
+4.7 vs 41% med
±1σ band 34–46%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 45 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹616.57
Close +0.06% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹14,849
0.52x vs normal
Turnover
0.30x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.1%
z-score -0.2σ
mth z +1.5σ
Open Gap: -0.17%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Trade size only 0.5x normal — exclusively retail activity. No institutional conviction behind this move. Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
Promoter24.8%→ flat FII23.9% ↓4.3% DII7.5% ↑0.4% Public43.8% ↑3.9% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →+1new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Sep 2025 → Dec 20251 inst. Total holders1 (+0) New entrants+ 1 Full exits− 1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 45 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹616.57
Close +0.06% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹14,849
0.52x vs normal
Turnover
0.30x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.1%
z-score -0.2σ
mth z +1.5σ
Open Gap: -0.17%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Trade size only 0.5x normal — exclusively retail activity. No institutional conviction behind this move. Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Extension
80% of prior decline recovered — momentum extending toward prior highs
₹617 Decline Low ₹280
Target ₹1,127
100% 127.2% 161.8% 200%
₹703 ₹819 ₹965 ₹1,127 FULL RECOVERY ₹703 +14.0% 127.2% TARGET ₹819 +32.7% 161.8% TARGET ₹965 +56.4% DEMAND ZONE ₹567 -8.0% ₹580…₹567 SUPPLY ZONE ₹676 +9.5% ₹662…₹676 Critical Level
₹567.40(-8.0%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹675.80 (+9.5%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹567.40 (-8.0%) ₹691+12.0% ₹654+6.0%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateDown Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.61 (trending) · ADX 22 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
19/ 100 W: NEUTRAL G6 setup 5 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · G3 div 2 · G4 osc 2 · G5 inst 2 · BOS BOS 1 · SC_BULL SC 1 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Price is coiling in an early-stage Volatility Contraction Pattern
Continuation Watch Zones
₹69112.0%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, FIB_1.000 · HIGH ₹6546.0%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, SUPPLY_ZONE · MEDIUM ₹6200.4%↑ · PIVOT · LOW Prior decline ₹280 → ₹703
Institutional Quality
45
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
29
/ 150
Bias votes:▼▲––▲▼–––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility is actively tightening further, right now Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Repeated high-volume, price-holds-steady bars recently — buyers/sellers absorbing supply in a cluster, not just once
Valuation
57
/ 100
Fair Value
SWEET SPOT
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹582 6.0% above fair value
Momentum
74
/ 100
Above Average
Top 26% of 288 Midcap
SWEET SPOT
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Mixed vs EMA 200+13.3% above Weekly RSI50 Monthly ADX22 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.61 — trending NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Trending momentum (H=0.61) RSI 50 ⬆ GX 66d +15.6% MACD Div ▼ (30d ago) Long-Term Compounding Case A severely beaten-down quality business. Deep declines like this historically create the strongest long-term recovery opportunities over a 5–7 year horizon. FII -4.3% QoQ DII +0.4% QoQ P/E 13.4× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Severe decline, 12% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹28K CrP/E 13.4xP/B 1.9xROE 13%ROCE 11%Rev 5yr +18%/yrPft 5yr +17%/yrRev QoQ +6.2%Pft QoQ +14.4%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 13% ROCE 11% Sales Growth (QoQ) +6% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Severe) Currently Unloved 12% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -75% Revenue Growth Level +18%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 75% peak-to-trough (Severe) — 57-65% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest, median ultimate multiple 12-16x Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +17% Rev 5yr CAGR +18% Cash-Flow Stage Startup CFO / CFI / CFF − / − / + Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 6-8% Justified P/E 4-5x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.22x P/B Ratio 1.9x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SPLPETRO ▼ ₹46281%₹979 ₹880 +0.0% | Conflicted | Markup · Running ★☆☆☆☆ Possible to exit · Final Shakeout Test — Awaiting confirmation Markup PhaseNo event | 28/150 FORMING | Mixed · 36 Neutral flow FII 3.8% ▲ +0.1% Jun'26 DII 4.1% ▼ -0.1% Jun'26 DII 2(+0) – +1new −1ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 20/100 Expensive DY 1.5% FV ₹303 -190% above | 127.0% Fib ₹881 (+0.1%) Watch ₹975 (11%↑) DZ +19.6% SZ +11.2% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SPLPETRO
₹880.00
+0.10 (+0.0%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY ENERGY · Smallcap · 🟡 23/51 accumulating — Partial Rotation ↗ RS vs Sector +27.7% SOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 7f · UNKNOWN
YTD +36.2%1Y +7.0%3Y +78.0%-10.1% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
16dA 2dB 123d ▶CTesting 3dD 20dE 80% of 52-week range
₹462 (52W Low)
₹979 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 15 vs PTZ 25Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 167dphase: MEDIUM
⚠ Aged SC
✓ MARKUP FIRM
Evidence
MEDIUM
Evidence 16✓/14✗
FII↔ DII↔ BUYING
▼ BTZ DECAYING — aging clock +0.0
Mixed · IQ 36
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
↑ +17% · n=1
⚡ BOS (5b ago) · SS 3/5
AVWAP ✓ +20.2%
AVWAP↑ +16.5%
Sqz↑
W↑ 66
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Trend continuation·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 81% of 52W range (12/22 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (25/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. Confirmed uptrend — this is a momentum play, not a bottom-buying opportunity · ⚠ signals weakening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹979.00. UPTREND ACTIVEModerate Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.0% · Vol 0.4× · gap -0.4% This week+1.7% · Vol contracting Past month+24.2% · vs Nifty +25% (3mo) · 52W range: 81%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkMARKUP · RUNNINGconfidence MEDIUM · CES 28/150 · structure break 5 sessions ago ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Money flow is positive (MFI 82, CMF +0.47) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✗ Multiple bearish signals — RSI 73 (overbought), MACD above signal, Stoch 88 (overbought, turning down). ✗ MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top.16✓ 14✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
16
⌄ EARLY ABSORPTION 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Money flow is positive (MFI 82, CMF +0.47) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✓CMF +0.472 — money flowing in, institutional buying ✓Up/Down vol ratio 6.12× — buyers committing 6.1× more capital than sellers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓TTM Squeeze firing ↑ 📈 Trend Momentum ✓Momentum Score 70/100 — trend intact vs Smallcap peers, supports staying invested 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (22w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 66) 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.1% -> 3.8%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Profit QoQ +41% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis ✓Debt/Equity 0.1x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern ✓Operating margin expanding +3.9pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — within the common range for genuine improvement
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
14
RS: Bottom 9% ⚠ ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗SC-low not yet retested — Phase B support floor unvalidated; risk of a deeper shakeout to test lows ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Multiple bearish signals — RSI 73 (overbought), MACD above signal, Stoch 88 (overbought, turning down). ✗MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗EMA200 Overextension: price is 0.2% above EMA200 — exceeds the historical 95th-percentile stretch. Adaptive mean-reversion risk is at its highest; statistically, extended moves this far above the long-run trend attract aggressive supply. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗RSI 73.0 — overbought, elevated reversal risk ✗MFI 82 — overbought, distribution setup likely ✗MACD histogram div (bear) (2d ago) — momentum diverging bearishly, caution on bounces ✗Stochastic 88 — overbought, elevated distribution risk 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.58 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗DII selling QoQ (-0.1%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗CFO/EBITDA 29% — weak cash conversion; earnings quality caution
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint ⚠ LT EXIT RISKEARLYBC · ~7M agoSporadic (34%) Turn ZoneGolden Cross ⚠ SM EXIT RISKPrice near 52W high (81% range) — early accumulators sitting on gains · Distribution score elevated (PTZ 25) — supply entering the market · Wyckoff bias shifted to distribution phase LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 10% off ATH Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
42.6%
-0.3σ
-4.8 vs 47% med
±1σ band 34–58%
Weekly delivery ▼
32.8%
-0.7σ
-9.0 vs 42% med
±1σ band 29–55%
Monthly delivery ▼
32.1%
-0.9σ
-15.9 vs 48% med
±1σ band 31–61%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 36 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹870.46
Close +1.10% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹9,917
0.76x vs normal
Turnover
0.45x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
42.6%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z +0.2σ
Open Gap: -0.44%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.5x avg) — no conviction in the current direction. Close +1.1% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII selling ↓
Promoter64.2%→ flat FII3.8% ↑0.1% DII4.1% ↓0.1% Public27.7% →0.0% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders2 →+1new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20262 inst. Total holders2 (+0) New entrants+ 1 Full exits− 1 Unchanged 1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 36 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹870.46
Close +1.10% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹9,917
0.76x vs normal
Turnover
0.45x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
42.6%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z +0.2σ
Open Gap: -0.44%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.5x avg) — no conviction in the current direction. Close +1.1% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹880 Base Low ₹708
Swing High ₹844
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹792
₹776
₹760
38.2% SUPPORT
₹792
50% MIDPOINT
₹776
61.8% GOLDEN
₹760
DEMAND ZONE ₹708 -19.5% ₹719…₹708 SUPPLY ZONE ₹979 +11.2% ₹962…₹979 Critical Level
₹708.00(-19.5%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹979.00 (+11.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹708.00 (-19.5%) ₹975+10.8% ₹902+2.5%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp Long-termUp
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.58 (trending) · ADX 38 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
15/ 100 W: ALIGNED ↑ (3w) G1 event 6 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · BOS BOS 2 · G6 setup 1 · G5 inst 0 Top reasons The panic-selling peak bar has a long lower shadow — the sell-off was rejected within the same session Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired bullish — the compression is releasing
Continuation Watch Zones
₹97510.8%↑ · PIVOT, SUPPLY_ZONE · MEDIUM ₹9022.5%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW Prior decline ₹451 → ₹499
Institutional Quality
36
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
28
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––▲–▼▲––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired bullish — the compression is releasing The trading range is unusually wide — more room for a big move once it resolves
Valuation
20
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹303 190.0% above fair value
Momentum
70
/ 100
Above Average
Top 30% of 89 Smallcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+21.6% above Weekly RSI73 MACD (weekly)Bull cross Monthly ADX38 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.58 — trending NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH Trending momentum (H=0.58) RSI 73 ⬆ GX 111d +13.6% MACD Div ▼ (2d ago) Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.1% QoQ DII -0.1% QoQ P/E 27.1× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 10% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹13K CrMargin 3v3yr +3.9ppP/E 27.1xP/B 7.0xROE 14%D/E 0.1xRev QoQ +6.8%Pft QoQ +40.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 14% Sales Growth (QoQ) +7% Debt / Equity 0.06x CFO/EBITDA 29% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 10% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -40% Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 40% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Margin 3v3yr +3.9pp Debt Trend -0.43x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Valuation Context P/B Ratio 7.0x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAILTEL ▼ ₹24510%₹402 ₹260 -0.5% | Conflicted ⚡ HiVol 7% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 41/150 BUILDING | Weak Money Flow · 11 Neutral flow FII 4.0% ▲ +0.3% Jun'26 DII 1.0% – +0.0% Jun'26 DII 1(+0) – | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 23/100 Expensive DY 1.1% FV ₹81 -222% above | 50.0% Fib ₹259 (-0.4%) DZ +4.7% SZ +27.0% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated Hammer | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAILTEL
₹260.15
−1.40 (-0.5%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY IT · Smallcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▼ RS vs Sector -18.4% SOS staleMF NEUTRAL 1mo · 6f
YTD -30.0%1Y -34.6%3Y +24.3%5Y +108.2%-57.9% from ATH
Market Cycle
Declining Demand
16dA 66dB 1dC 17d ▶DDeclining Demand 35dE 9% of 52-week range
₹245 (52W Low)
₹402 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 14 vs PTZ 16Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
⚠ Aged SC
Rally Fail 30d ago
DISTRIBUTING 2/4
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 16✓/12✗
⚠ 2 conflicts
Weak Money Flow · IQ 11
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↓ -26% · n=1
⚡ BOS (69b ago) · SS 1/5
AVWAP↓ -28.6%
AVWAP✗ -27.9%
Sqz↓
W= 36
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (5 spikes)
Cov 20/20
2/13 ACCUM · IT
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 7% big days
Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 10% of 52W range (12/20 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (16/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹438.65. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.5% · Vol 0.8× This week-1.8% · Vol contractingSign of Weakness today Past month-7.4% · vs Nifty -12% (3mo) · 52W range: 10%monthly trend bearish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 41/150 ✓ Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 40 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Monthly Trend (bearish): The monthly EMA-12 is below EMA-26 and close is below EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is down. Long-term structural headwind in force.16✓ 12✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
16
RS: Top 7%▲ Hammer (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested 15× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✓Near 52W Low (10% of range, down 35% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹257, 1.1% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹259, 0.4% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 40 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓ATR 10th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible 🏛 Institutional ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.3% -> 4.0%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 15% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Profit QoQ +79% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Hammer — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
12
📊 Price & Structure ✗Relative Strength (lagging): Underperforming Nifty 50 by 29.0% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year low (own-history percentile 1/100). The quarterly RS trend has just turned up (early, unconfirmed) — institutions may be starting to re-enter; treat the bearish setup with some caution. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Monthly MACD (bearish): MACD histogram is negative and the monthly trend is bearish (hist=-12.885) — macro momentum is deteriorating. Institutional sellers are in control at the macro level. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 📈 Trend Momentum ✗Momentum Score 20/100 — still lagging vs Smallcap peers, no confirmed relative strength yet 🌡 Regime ✗EMA200 falling — price -16% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (46w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗Monthly Trend (bearish): The monthly EMA-12 is below EMA-26 and close is below EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is down. Long-term structural headwind in force. ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 48.1x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗P/E is 3.21x its own 5yr median (15x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗Operating margin contracting -7.0pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — profitability weakening
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1.9Y agoFresh (0%) Turn ZoneGolden Cross LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 58% off ATH ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹275.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
32.8%
-0.3σ
-3.2 vs 36% med
±1σ band 27–44%
Weekly delivery ▼
27.2%
-0.4σ
-5.4 vs 33% med
±1σ band 23–39%
Monthly delivery ▼
18.6%
-0.8σ
-5.2 vs 24% med
±1σ band 17–30%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 11 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹259.17
Close +0.38% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹9,635
0.94x vs normal
Turnover
0.74x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
32.8%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z +0.7σ
Open Gap: -0.21%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑
Promoter72.8%→ flat FII4.0% ↑0.3% DII1.0%→ flat Public22.2% ↓0.2% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →stable
Sector MF: NEUTRAL · 6 funds · 1mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2024 → Jun 20241 inst. Total holders1 (+0) Unchanged 1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 11 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹259.17
Close +0.38% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹9,635
0.94x vs normal
Turnover
0.74x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
32.8%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z +0.7σ
Open Gap: -0.21%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Testing 50% — midpoint; balance zone between bulls and bears
₹260 Base Low ₹248
Swing High ₹270
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹262
₹259
₹256
38.2% SUPPORT
₹262
50% MIDPOINT
₹259
61.8% GOLDEN
₹256
DEMAND ZONE ₹248 -4.7% ₹251…₹248 SUPPLY ZONE ₹330 +27.0% ₹325…₹330 ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹438.65 (+68.6%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹248.00 (-4.7%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹325…330 ₹330+27.0% DEMAND ZONE band ₹251…248 ₹248-4.7%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.46 (random walk) · ADX 19 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
14/ 100 W: NEUTRAL G6 setup 7 · G3 div 3 · G4 osc 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Monthly ADX confirms a strong downtrend is in force — exhaustion is more likely from here This is the narrowest daily range in 7 sessions — classic pre-breakout compression Peak Turn Zone
16
/ 100
▼ -0.2
G1 event 11 · RS_PTZ RS 3 · G4 osc 1 · G5 inst 0 Top reasons Distribution phase confirmed — the topping sequence is intact bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3) This stock has been a chronic laggard versus Nifty — added weight to the distribution case
Institutional Quality
11
/ 100
Bot 5% in universe
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
41
/ 150
Bias votes:▲––▲–▼▼––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal
Valuation
23
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹81 221.8% above fair value
Momentum
20
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 20% of 89 Smallcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-15.5% below Weekly RSI40 Monthly ADX19 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.46 — random walk Weekly candleHammer NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.46) RSI 40 ⬆ GX 7d +3.1% Hammer: Sellers pushed price down sharply but buyers recovered by close — a classic bottom-reversal candle. Look for confirmation next week. Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.3% QoQ P/E 48.1× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 58% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹9K CrMargin 3v3yr -7.0ppP/E 48.1xP/B 4.8xROE 12%ROCE 16%D/E 0.0xRev 5yr +15%/yrPft 5yr +4%/yrRev QoQ +28.0%Pft QoQ +79.0%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 12% ROCE 16% Sales Growth (QoQ) +28% Debt / Equity 0.03x CFO/EBITDA 45% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 58% off ATH Max Drawdown (vs Index) -47% Revenue Growth Level +15%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 47% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +4% Rev 5yr CAGR +15% Margin 3v3yr -7.0pp Debt Trend +0.01x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 3.21x P/B Ratio 4.8x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GLAXO ▼ ₹2,08870%₹3,121 ₹2,816 -0.5% | Neutral | Markup · LATE Demand Taking Over — Price gaining strength Markup PhaseNo event⚠ SPRING FAILED | 28/150 FORMING | Mixed · 43 Neutral flow FII 4.8% ▲ +0.2% Jun'26 DII 7.8% ▲ +0.1% Jun'26 DII 1(+0) – | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 13/100 Expensive DY 1.9% FV ₹417 -575% above | 79.0% Fib ₹2,824 (+0.3%) Watch ₹3,091 (10%↑) DZ +25.8% SZ +9.2% | CAUTION Reversal test failed | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GLAXO
₹2,815.70
−13.50 (-0.5%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY PHARMA · Midcap · 🟡 14/39 accumulating — Partial Rotation ▼ RS vs Sector +11.7% SOS staleMF NEUTRAL 5mo
YTD +13.8%1Y +2.2%3Y +97.0%5Y +96.1%-19.9% from ATH
Market Cycle
Demand Taking Over
16dA 70dB 59dC 2d ▶DUptrend 2dE 70% of 52-week range
₹2,088 (52W Low)
₹3,121 (52W High)
Stage
MARKUP — LATE ◆ base: CONDITION★★☆
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 218dphase: MEDIUM✓ INST ALIGNED↻ FULL CYCLE✓ DEMAND CONFIRMED
⚠ Aged SC
⬇ RECOILING ★
Breakout 27d ago
⚠ THIN MARKUP
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 17✓/8✗
FII↔ DII↔ BUYING
Trend + Delivery: Bull
Mixed · IQ 43
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (3w)
↓ -4% · n=1
⚡ BOS (19b ago) · SS 3/5
AVWAP ✓ +11.2%
AVWAP↑ +2.2%
Sqz↓
W↑ 60
★ FII +0.17pp DII +0.13pp (QoQ)
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
Index: Watch
Trade & Risk
₹3,113 (+10.6%)
Stop ₹2,756 · 0.8× ATR · R:R 5.0
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Trend continuation·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 70% of 52W range (13/18 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Trail your stop to ₹2,479.00. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting · signals strengthening over the past month. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Stop = the low of the panic-selling bar (₹2,479.00) — this setup is invalidated if price closes below this.. UPTREND ACTIVEModerate Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.5% · Vol 0.2× This week-0.8% · Vol contracting Past month-7.2% · vs Nifty +24% (3mo) · 52W range: 70%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 28/150 ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 87/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 46 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.17✓ 8✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
17
⚡ Cycle Stage ✓Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 87/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. ✓SC-low tested 13× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 12.4% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year best (own-history percentile 93/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹2763, 1.9% below) — structural support — Confirming indicators 📈 Trend Momentum ✓Momentum Score 64/100 — trend intact vs Midcap peers, supports staying invested 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (6w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 60) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.2% -> 4.8%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.1% -> 7.8%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓ROE 46% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern ✓Operating margin expanding +7.7pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — within the common range for genuine improvement
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
8
RS: Bottom 11% ⚠⚠ SPRING FAILED · 55d ago ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗⚠ Price barely above base resistance — at risk of slipping back into the base. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.3% above current price (at 2824). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 46 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.57 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 48.8x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~10M agoFresh (1%) Turn ZoneGolden CrossHH+HL Trend LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 20% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹2,648.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
45.4%
-1.0σ
-8.4 vs 54% med
±1σ band 45–64%
Weekly delivery ▼
62.3%
+0.8σ
+5.0 vs 57% med
±1σ band 50–64%
Monthly delivery ▼
48.6%
-0.4σ
-8.1 vs 57% med
±1σ band 42–64%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 43 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹2,820.14
Close -0.16% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹12,055
0.57x vs normal
Turnover
0.20x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
45.4%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z -0.8σ
Open Gap: -0.01%
▼ Supports bear case
Trade size only 0.6x normal — exclusively retail activity. No institutional conviction behind this move. Volume drying up (0.2x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII buying ↑
Promoter75.0%→ flat FII4.8% ↑0.2% DII7.8% ↑0.1% Public12.4% ↓0.3% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →stable
Sector MF: NEUTRAL · 5mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20261 inst. Total holders1 (+0) Unchanged 1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 43 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹2,820.14
Close -0.16% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹12,055
0.57x vs normal
Turnover
0.20x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
45.4%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z -0.8σ
Open Gap: -0.01%
▼ Supports bear case
Trade size only 0.6x normal — exclusively retail activity. No institutional conviction behind this move. Volume drying up (0.2x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹2,816 Base Low ₹2,756
Swing High ₹3,075
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹2,953
₹2,915
₹2,878
38.2% SUPPORT
₹2,953
50% MIDPOINT
₹2,915
61.8% GOLDEN
₹2,878
DEMAND ZONE ₹2,088 -25.8% ₹2,114…₹2,088 SUPPLY ZONE ₹3,075 +9.2% ₹3,032…₹3,075 Critical Level
₹2,755.90(-2.1%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹3,075.00 (+9.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹2,088.10 (-25.8%) ■ RIDE STOP₹2,725.41 (-3.2%) ₹3,091+9.8% ₹2,925+3.9%
⚠ Overhead resistance at ₹3,075 (+9.2%) — supply zone sits between current price and the projected target; price must absorb this zone on the way up.
⚠ INVALIDATION: Stop = the low of the panic-selling bar (₹2,479.00) — this setup is invalidated if price closes below this.
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.57 (trending) · ADX 23 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
14/ 100 W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) RS_BTZ RS 5 · G6 setup 4 · BOS BOS 2 · G5 inst 1 · SC_BULL SC 1 · G1 event 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events The base is narrow or volume is drying up inside it This is the narrowest daily range in 7 sessions — classic pre-breakout compression
Continuation Watch Zones
₹3,0919.8%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, SUPPLY_ZONE · MEDIUM ₹2,9253.9%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW ₹3,51624.9%↑ · PIVOT · LOW Prior decline ₹1,385 → ₹1,624
Institutional Quality
43
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
28
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––▼––▼––0↑ 3↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history Volatility is actively tightening further, right now Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day
Valuation
13
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹417 575.1% above fair value
Momentum
64
/ 100
Above Average
Top 36% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Mixed vs EMA 200+8.4% above Weekly RSI46 Monthly ADX23 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.57 — trending LONG Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Trending momentum (H=0.57) RSI 46 ⬆ GX 30d +5.5% Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.2% QoQ DII +0.1% QoQ P/E 48.8× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 20% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹51K CrMargin 3v3yr +7.7ppP/E 48.8xP/B 21.0xROE 46%ROCE 61%D/E 0.0xRev 5yr +5%/yrPft 5yr +15%/yrRev QoQ -5.7%Pft QoQ -14.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 46% ROCE 61% Sales Growth (QoQ) -6% Debt / Equity 0.01x CFO/EBITDA 64% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 20% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -34% Revenue Growth Level +5%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 34% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +15% Rev 5yr CAGR +5% Margin 3v3yr +7.7pp Debt Trend -0.00x Cash-Flow Stage Shake-out CFO / CFI / CFF + / + / − Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 3-4% Justified P/E 10-12x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.95x P/B Ratio 21.0x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ACMESOLAR ▼ LT OPP · ~5M ago ₹19688%₹477 ₹443 -0.8% | LT Accumulation ⚡ HiVol 8% | Consolidation Uptrend in Progress — Trail your stop RangeNo event | 23/150 FORMING | Moderate Inst. · 56 Neutral flow FII 4.4% ▲ +0.8% Jun'26 DII 19.1% ▲ +12.1% Jun'26 DII 7(+5) ▲ ↑1 +6new −1ex | — | 19/100 Expensive DY 0.1% FV ₹133 -233% above | 38.0% Fib ₹444 (+0.1%) DZ +12.0% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position Bullish Eng | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ACMESOLAR
₹442.90
−3.75 (-0.8%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY ENERGY · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +23.9% SOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 7f · UNKNOWN
YTD +86.5%1Y +45.8%-7.1% from ATH
Market Cycle
Uptrend in Progress
16dA 15dB 29dC 1dD 28d ▶EUptrend 87% of 52-week range
₹196 (52W Low)
₹477 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
⏳ AGING BASE
ACCUMULATING 2/4
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 16✓/11✗
★ LT Accumulation
Moderate Inst. · IQ 56
Pattern
Established (4w)
⚡ BOS (3b ago) · SS 3/5
AVWAP ✓ +19.5%
AVWAP↑ +41.2%
Sqz↑
W↑ 71
R-Wedge
★ FII +0.79pp DII +12.05pp (QoQ)
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 8% big days
Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 88% of 52W range (12/20 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Breaks down below ₹389.60. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bullish — BTZ stronger, watch for breakout above range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.8% · Vol 1.1×delivery well above its 3-month average — real buyers, not traders This week+1.8% · Vol expanding Past month+11.9% · vs Nifty +21% (3mo) · 52W range: 88%mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 23/150 · structure break 3 sessions ago · long-term accumulation window open ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 63 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✗ MACD Histogram Divergence (Class A (strong)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.16✓ 11✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
16
⌄ EARLY ABSORPTION▲ Bullish Eng. (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested once (secondary test) — support validated once; additional tests strengthen the floor 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹432, 2.6% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Money flow is positive (MFI 71, CMF +0.24) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✓CMF +0.237 — money flowing in, institutional buying ✓Up/Down vol ratio 2.53× — buyers committing 2.5× more capital than sellers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 63 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓TTM Squeeze firing ↑ 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (24w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 71) 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.8% -> 4.4%) ✓DII buying QoQ (+12.1% -> 19.1%) 📋 Fundamentals ✓Profit QoQ +70% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Bullish Engulfing — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
11
RS: Bottom 13% ⚠ 📊 Price & Structure ✗52W range 88% — near annual highs, distribution risk 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% above current price (at 444). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗MACD Histogram Divergence (Class A (strong)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗MFI 71 — overbought, distribution setup likely ✗MACD histogram div (bear) (5d ago) — momentum diverging bearishly, caution on bounces 🏛 Institutional ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 47.1x — elevated valuation; limited margin of safety at bottom ✗P/E is 1.21x its own 5yr median (39x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗Debt/Equity 3.9x — high leverage; debt stress risk at bottom 🕯 Pattern ✗Rising wedge
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LT OPPORTUNITYUNDERWAYSC · ~5M agoSporadic (23%) Turn ZoneGolden CrossHH+HL Trend ▲ Smart Money Signal(recent daily data) Genuine Institutional Support: Professional investors are adding positions at this level. Delivery z-score +2.4σ — significantly above average. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹431.50 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹378.15 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
65.1%
+2.3σ
+18.4 vs 47% med
±1σ band 39–55%
Weekly delivery ▲
51.7%
+1.2σ
+5.9 vs 46% med
±1σ band 36–50%
Monthly delivery ▲
46.0%
+0.2σ
-0.3 vs 46% med
±1σ band 36–53%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 56 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹440.59
Close +0.52% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹24,002
1.37x vs normal
Turnover
1.11x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
65.1%
z-score +2.4σ
mth z —
Open Gap: +0.06%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.5% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII buying ↑
Promoter71.4% ↓11.9% FII4.4% ↑0.8% DII19.1% ↑12.1% Public4.9% ↓1.0% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders7 ↑5↑1 +6new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 7 inst. Total holders7 (+5) Increasing stake↑ 1 New entrants+ 6 Full exits− 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 56 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹440.59
Close +0.52% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹24,002
1.37x vs normal
Turnover
1.11x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
65.1%
z-score +2.4σ
mth z —
Open Gap: +0.06%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.5% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹443 Base Low ₹390
Swing High ₹477
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹444
₹433
₹423
38.2% SUPPORT
₹444
50% MIDPOINT
₹433
61.8% GOLDEN
₹423
DEMAND ZONE ₹390 -12.0% ₹397…₹390 SUPPLY ZONE No zone identifiedCritical Level
₹389.60(-12.0%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹389.60 (-12.0%) SUPPLY ZONEINSIDE ₹444+0.1% DEMAND ZONE band ₹397…390 ₹390-12.0%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.47 (random walk) · ADX 33 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
14/ 100 W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) G1 event 11 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · G5 inst 1 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons The panic-selling peak bar has a long lower shadow — the sell-off was rejected within the same session Delivery % is running well above its 60-day average (ultra-high conviction) — a strong institutional-buying footprint Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
7
/ 100
Bot 17% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -11.0
G3 div 10 · G1 event 0 · RS RS -3 Top reasons MACD is diverging bearishly from price — momentum is quietly weakening beneath the surface deliv_div_bear ClassA (+2.7, rm=0.89, tv=1.00) A buying frenzy peak — exhaustion buying at an elevated level
Institutional Quality
56
/ 100
Top 12% in universe
Moderate Inst.
Coil Energy Score
23
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––––▲▲––2↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet
Valuation
19
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹133 233.2% above fair value
Momentum
97
/ 100
Strong Momentum
Top 3% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+34.3% above Weekly RSI63 Monthly ADX33 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.47 — random walk Weekly candleBullish Engulfing NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH No clear momentum (H=0.47) RSI 63 ⬆ GX 118d +59.8% Bullish Engulfing: A strong green candle completely swallowed the prior red candle — bulls overpowered bears decisively. High-conviction reversal signal. MACD Div ▼ (5d ago) Vol & Turn Zone ▸SC: 2.4× vol · AR: 4.7× — strong Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII +0.8% QoQ DII +12.1% QoQ PROM ↓ -11.9% P/E 47.1× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹28K CrMargin 3v3yr -2.3ppP/E 47.1xP/B 5.3xROE 10%ROCE 9%D/E 3.9xRev 5yr +4%/yrPft 5yr +51%/yrRev QoQ +56.6%Pft QoQ +70.3%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 10% ROCE 9% Sales Growth (QoQ) +57% Debt / Equity 3.93x CFO/EBITDA 48% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +51% Rev 5yr CAGR +4% Margin 3v3yr -2.3pp Debt Trend -1.49x Cash-Flow Stage Shake-out CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / + Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.21x P/B Ratio 5.3x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CHOICEIN ▼ ₹56962%₹860 ₹751 +0.2% | Neutral | Markup · LATE ★☆☆☆☆ Possible to exit · Final Shakeout Test — Awaiting confirmation Markup PhaseNo event | 26/150 FORMING | Mixed · 39 Neutral flow FII 10.1% ▼ -1.3% Jun'26 DII 0.3% – -0.1% Jun'26 | A · Mild Shallow decline — weak turnaround signal | 4/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹128 -486% above | 79.0% Fib ₹750 (-0.1%) Watch ₹845 (12%↑) DZ +3.9% SZ +13.8% | HOLD Markup running — trail stop | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CHOICEIN
₹751.05
+1.55 (+0.2%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY FIN SERVICE · Midcap · 🟡 34/70 accumulating — Partial Rotation RS vs Sector +6.8% SOS staleMF BUILDING 5mo · 18f
YTD -10.2%1Y -8.4%3Y +301.5%-12.7% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
16dA 3dB 74d ▶CTesting 5dD 132dE 62% of 52-week range
₹569 (52W Low)
₹860 (52W High)
Stage
MARKUP — LATE ◆ base: NONE★★☆
TURNAROUND · MILD
D↑ MARKUP⏲ 386dphase: MEDIUM
⚠ Aged SC
⬇ RECOILING ★
Rally Fail 1d ago
✓ MARKUP FIRM
Evidence
LOW · capped
Evidence 11✓/7✗
Mixed · IQ 39
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (2w)
↑ +48% · n=1
⚡ BOS (4b ago) · SS 2/5
AVWAP ✓ +3.1%
AVWAP↑ +0.5%
Sqz
W= 51
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
Uptrend Active·Accumulation cycle complete · trend running·Trend continuation·Watch: pullback retest before adding ◯ Uptrend Intact — Protect Your Gains · 62% of 52W range (7/13 indicators aligned) This stock is breaking out into an uptrend, with buyers clearly in control. It has pulled back modestly (<30%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a mild correction — watch for deeper structural evidence before sizing up. This stock is in an established uptrend — the base-building phase is behind it and price is advancing. Not a bottom-buying opportunity; if you're holding, let the trend run and tighten your stop on weakness. This uptrend is maturing (over 6 months old) — tighten your stop and watch for signs of smart money exiting. This uptrend stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 76% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 6263 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹854.30. UPTREND ACTIVEFading Uptrend active — accumulation base complete, price in advancing phase. Panic-selling low is legacy (>2yr) — apply wider stops. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.2% · Vol 0.8×delivery collapsed — buying interest thin This week-1.7% · Vol normalLPSY 1 session ago Past month-3.9% · vs Nifty +4% (3mo) · 52W range: 62%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkMARKUP · LATEconfidence MEDIUM · CES 26/150 · structure break 4 sessions ago ✓ Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 44 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✗ Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally. ✗ CLV(5d) -0.35 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet11✓ 7✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Setup Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹746, 0.7% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹750, 0.1% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 44 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓EMA200 rising and price holding above — uptrend intact through the pullback ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (11w ago) — trend intact 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 45% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern ✓Operating margin expanding +5.3pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — within the common range for genuine improvement
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
7
RS: Bottom 41%▲ DIST RISK EARLY ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗SC-low not yet retested — Phase B support floor unvalidated; risk of a deeper shakeout to test lows 📊 Price & Structure ✗Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗CLV(5d) -0.35 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet — Confirming indicators 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-1.3% -> 10.1%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 77.2x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗P/E is 1.60x its own 5yr median (48x) — expensive relative to its own trading history
Key watch: Markup phase running — monitor for overextension and distribution signals at supply zones.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1.5Y agoFresh (2%) Turn ZoneGolden Cross LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Mild decline · 13% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹750.50 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹745.15 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
9.8%
-2.2σ
-19.8 vs 30% med
±1σ band 21–40%
Weekly delivery ▼
21.6%
-1.2σ
-8.4 vs 30% med
±1σ band 23–37%
Monthly delivery ▼
29.6%
-0.5σ
-1.9 vs 32% med
±1σ band 27–37%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 39 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹753.90
Close -0.38% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹31,906
0.95x vs normal
Turnover
0.82x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
9.8%
z-score -2.0σ
mth z -0.8σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter53.7%→ flat FII10.1% ↓1.3% DII0.3% →0.1% Public36.0% ↑1.4% Pledge0.1%→ flat
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 39 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹753.90
Close -0.38% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹31,906
0.95x vs normal
Turnover
0.82x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
9.8%
z-score -2.0σ
mth z -0.8σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Extension
Near full recovery (84%) — approaching prior resistance; break above confirms new markup
₹751 Decline Low ₹186
Target ₹1,535
100% 127.2% 161.8% 200%
₹860 ₹1,044 ₹1,278 ₹1,535 FULL RECOVERY ₹860 +14.6% 127.2% TARGET ₹1,044 +39.0% 161.8% TARGET ₹1,278 +70.1% DEMAND ZONE ₹722 -3.9% ₹730…₹722 SUPPLY ZONE ₹854 +13.7% ₹845…₹854 Critical Level
₹721.60(-3.9%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹854.30 (+13.7%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹721.60 (-3.9%) ₹845+12.5% ₹797+6.2%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.52 (random walk) · ADX 17 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
4/ 100Bot 11% of D_MARKUP (n=9) W: NEUTRAL G6 setup 4 · BOS BOS 3 · SC_BULL SC 2 · G3 div 0 · RS RS -4 Top reasons bos_confirmed bars_ago=4 mult=0.87 (+2.6) The last 3 structural swing lows each occurred on progressively lower volume — sellers are losing conviction at support, a classic supply exhaustion pattern Bollinger Bands are squeezed tight — a volatility contraction that often precedes a breakout
Continuation Watch Zones
₹84512.5%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER, FIB_1.000 · HIGH ₹7976.2%↑ · PIVOT_CLUSTER · LOW ₹1,04439.0%↑ · FIB_1.272 · LOW Prior decline ₹186 → ₹860
Institutional Quality
39
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
26
/ 150
Bias votes:–––▲–▼–––1↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days The trading range is unusually wide — more room for a big move once it resolves
Valuation
4
/ 100
Expensive
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹128 486.2% above fair value
Momentum
58
/ 100
Average
Top 42% of 288 Midcap
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200+0.9% above Weekly RSI44 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX17 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.52 — random walk Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL No clear momentum (H=0.52) RSI 44 ⬆ GX 56d -2.3% Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down business, but not yet at the depth the framework validates as an optimal entry point. FII -1.3% QoQ DII -0.1% QoQ P/E 77.2× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Mild decline, 13% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹18K CrMargin 3v3yr +5.3ppP/E 77.2xP/B 10.0xROE 16%ROCE 18%D/E 0.5xRev 5yr +45%/yrPft 5yr +67%/yrRev QoQ +1.0%Pft QoQ -10.3%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 16% ROCE 18% Sales Growth (QoQ) +1% Debt / Equity 0.54x Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Mild) Currently Unloved 13% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -17% Revenue Growth Level +45%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Only a mild prior decline: 17% peak-to-trough — ~0% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest — not a real turnaround setup at this depth Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +67% Rev 5yr CAGR +45% Margin 3v3yr +5.3pp Debt Trend +0.13x Cash-Flow Stage Startup CFO / CFI / CFF − / − / + Forward Case Est. Fwd Growth 12-15% Justified P/E 34-52x Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.60x P/B Ratio 10.0x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KAYNES ▼ ₹2,99514%₹7,705 ₹3,650 +4.0% | Conflicted ⚡ HiVol 8%⚠ Circuit 1.6% | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 31/150 BUILDING | Weak Money Flow · 20 Neutral flow FII 5.8% ▼ -1.5% Jun'26 DII 11.8% ▼ -3.4% Jun'26 DII 3(-1) ▼ ↓3 −1ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 14/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹872 -319% above | 62.0% Fib ₹3,684 (+0.9%) DZ +9.8% SZ +12.8% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KAYNES
₹3,650.00
+140.50 (+4.0%)
25-Sep-26
INDUSTRIALS · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD -9.0%1Y -49.5%3Y +81.2%-53.3% from ATH
13% of 52-week range
₹2,995 (52W Low)
₹7,705 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 14 vs PTZ 11Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 11✓/12✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — weakening -1.9
Weak Money Flow · IQ 20
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
↑ +23% / ↓ -2% · n=4
Sqz
VCP Q2 · Forming
W= 46
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (4 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 8% big days
⚠ CIRCUIT RISK · 1.6% sessions
F&O BAN
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 14% of 52W range (7/15 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (11/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹4,032.00. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+4.0% · Vol 1.2× · gap +0.6% This week+3.8% · Vol expanding Past month-9.5% · vs Nifty +20% (3mo) · 52W range: 14%monthly trend bearish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 31/150 ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 53 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a lower low but the MACD histogram made a less-negative trough — selling pressure is decelerating before price confirms the turn. ✓ Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✗ Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗ Monthly Trend (bearish): The monthly EMA-12 is below EMA-26 and close is below EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is down. Long-term structural headwind in force.11✓ 12✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
↔ BLOCK BUY/SELL ₹144Cr — MATCHED 📊 Price & Structure ✓Near 52W Low (14% of range, down 53% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹3630, 0.5% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Block deal present but facilitated (same entity on both sides) — no net institutional direction — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 53 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a lower low but the MACD histogram made a less-negative trough — selling pressure is decelerating before price confirms the turn. ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze: BB bandwidth has contracted inside the Keltner Channel — volatility coiling to multi-week lows. Squeezes historically precede sharp directional expansions; in a bullish/neutral regime the resolution bias is to the upside. ✓MACD histogram div (bull) (8d ago) — momentum recovering before price turns; leads by 2–5 bars 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 54% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.2x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
12
RS: Bottom 14% ⚠ ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📊 Price & Structure ✗Relative Strength (lagging): Underperforming Nifty 50 by 45.0% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year low (own-history percentile 17/100). Institutions have been avoiding or distributing this stock — bearish setups on chronic laggards carry higher downside probability. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Monthly MACD (bearish): MACD histogram is negative and the monthly trend is bearish (hist=-376.857) — macro momentum is deteriorating. Institutional sellers are in control at the macro level. 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗EMA200 falling — price -7% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (64w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Monthly Trend (bearish): The monthly EMA-12 is below EMA-26 and close is below EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is down. Long-term structural headwind in force. ✗FII selling QoQ (-1.5% -> 5.8%) ✗DII selling QoQ (-3.4%) ✗F&O ban period active 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 76.5x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗Profit QoQ -38% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 53% off ATH ◆ Facilitated Trade1 block/bulk deal · last 20 days · ₹144.3 Cr — no confirmed institutional buyer — GRAVITON RESEARCH CAPITAL LLP ↔ MatchedSame entity on buy & sell: GRAVITON RESEARCH CAPITAL LLP — facilitated/arbitrage, no directional intent ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹3,261.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹2,995.00 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
29.4%
+0.4σ
+3.3 vs 26% med
±1σ band 20–33%
Weekly delivery ▼
23.3%
-0.3σ
-1.7 vs 25% med
±1σ band 20–29%
Monthly delivery ▲
24.1%
-0.2σ
+0.5 vs 24% med
±1σ band 19–31%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
↔ BLOCK BUY/SELL ₹144Cr — MATCHED NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 20 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹3,612.80
Close +1.03% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹64,155
1.19x vs normal
Turnover
1.19x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
29.4%
z-score +0.6σ
mth z -0.2σ
Open Gap: +0.58%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +1.0% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII selling ↓
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter53.5%→ flat FII5.8% ↓1.5% DII11.8% ↓3.4% Public28.9% ↑4.8% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders3 ↓1↓3 −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▼ 3 inst. Total holders3 (-1) Decreasing stake↓ 3 Full exits− 1 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 20 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹3,612.80
Close +1.03% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹64,155
1.19x vs normal
Turnover
1.19x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
29.4%
z-score +0.6σ
mth z -0.2σ
Open Gap: +0.58%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +1.0% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹3,650 Base Low ₹3,415
Swing High ₹4,118
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹3,850
₹3,767
₹3,684
38.2% SUPPORT
₹3,850
50% MIDPOINT
₹3,767
61.8% GOLDEN
₹3,684
DEMAND ZONE ₹3,293 -9.8% ₹3,361…₹3,293 SUPPLY ZONE ₹4,118 +12.8% ₹4,047…₹4,118 Critical Level
₹3,535.00(-3.2%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your SC low — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹4,032.00 (+10.5%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹3,293.00 (-9.8%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹4,047…4,118 ₹4,118+12.8% DEMAND ZONE band ₹3,361…3,293 ₹3,293-9.8%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateDown Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.50 (random walk) · ADX 17 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
14/ 100 W: NEUTRAL G3 div 6 · G6 setup 6 · G1 event 5 · G4 osc 2 · RS RS -4 Top reasons MACD is diverging bullishly from price — momentum is quietly improving beneath the surface Price is forming a Volatility Contraction Pattern — a series of tightening pullbacks that often precedes a breakout A capitulation-style selling event Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
11
/ 100
▲ +3.4
G2 zone 3 · RS_PTZ RS 3 · G4 osc 2 · G3 div 1 · G5 inst 1 · G6 setup 1 Top reasons Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant This stock has been a chronic laggard versus Nifty — added weight to the distribution case A Death Cross (50-day EMA crossing below 200-day) fired recently — a classic long-term trend-breakdown signal
Institutional Quality
20
/ 100
Bot 19% in universe
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
31
/ 150
Bias votes:–––––––––0↑ 0↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days A large institutional block trade bought shares recently A large institutional block trade sold shares recently
Valuation
14
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹872 318.7% above fair value
Momentum
23
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 23% of 288 Midcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-7.3% below Weekly RSI53 Monthly ADX17 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.50 — random walk Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL No clear momentum (H=0.50) RSI 53 ⬇ DX 379d -15.7% MACD Div ▲ (8d ago) Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -1.5% QoQ DII -3.4% QoQ P/E 76.5× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 53% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹27K CrMargin 3v3yr +2.3ppP/E 76.5xP/B 5.2xROE 9%ROCE 13%D/E 0.2xRev 5yr +54%/yrPft 5yr +104%/yrRev QoQ -23.9%Pft QoQ -38.5%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 9% ROCE 13% Sales Growth (QoQ) -24% Debt / Equity 0.19x Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 53% off ATH Max Drawdown (vs Index) -52% Revenue Growth Level +54%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 52% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +104% Rev 5yr CAGR +54% Margin 3v3yr +2.3pp Debt Trend -0.51x Cash-Flow Stage Startup CFO / CFI / CFF − / − / + Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.95x P/B Ratio 5.2x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HAVELLS ▼ ₹1,0813%₹1,610 ₹1,096 +0.6% | Conflicted | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 29/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 22 RC↑ FII 15.9% ▼ -1.0% Jun'26 DII 18.0% ▲ +0.5% Jun'26 DII 3(+0) – ↑1 +1new −1ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 11/100 Expensive DY 0.8% FV ₹279 -292% above | 89.0% Fib ₹1,106 (+0.9%) SZ +23.1% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated Hammer | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HAVELLS
₹1,096.50
+6.50 (+0.6%)
25-Sep-26
CONSUMER ELECTRICALS · Largecap · 🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD -23.0%1Y -31.2%3Y -20.8%5Y +9.1%-47.9% from ATH
Market Cycle
Declining Demand
16dA 1dB 1dC 5d ▶DDeclining Demand 8dE 2% of 52-week range
₹1,081 (52W Low)
₹1,610 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 13 vs PTZ 22Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
DISTRIBUTING 2/4
Evidence
LOW · capped
Evidence 15✓/13✗
⇆ BTZ MIXED (decaying/wk+0.9)
⚠ 2 conflicts
Weak Money Flow · IQ 22
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↑ +22% / ↑ +26% · n=3
AVWAP✗ -9.8%
Falling Ch 38%
Sqz↓
W↓ 37
F-Wedge
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
LU↓
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 3% of 52W range (11/20 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (22/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹1,812.70. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bearish — PTZ stronger, watch for breakdown below range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.6% · Vol 0.4× · gap -0.4% This week-3.2% · Vol contractingSign of Weakness today Past month-12.9% · vs Nifty -2% (3mo) · 52W range: 3%monthly trend bearish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 29/150 ✓ Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✓ Price within 5% of 52-week low (3% of annual range) with regime not in active downtrend — deeply depressed price levels indicate washed-out supply. Historically this zone precedes strong mean-reversion bounces when selling pressure subsides. ✓ Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Money flow is negative (MFI 8, CMF -0.07) — selling pressure is dominant on volume.15✓ 13✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
15
★ RC REVERSALRS: Top 38%▲ Hammer (pattern) 📊 Price & Structure ✓Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✓Near 52W Low (3% of range, down 32% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹1085, 1.0% below) — structural support — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Price within 5% of 52-week low (3% of annual range) with regime not in active downtrend — deeply depressed price levels indicate washed-out supply. Historically this zone precedes strong mean-reversion bounces when selling pressure subsides. ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓Williams %R Oversold: -80 (below −80). Williams %R at extreme lower band confirms price is at the low end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of oversold conditions alongside RSI and MACD. ✓MFI 8 — deeply oversold, seller exhaustion ✓Stochastic 14 — deeply oversold; confirms RSI bottom context 🌡 Regime ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 37) 🏛 Institutional ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.5% -> 18.0%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓P/E is 0.75x its own 5yr median (64x) — cheap relative to its own trading history ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 17% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Hammer — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
13
⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 8, CMF -0.07) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.33× — sellers committing 3.0× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Monthly MACD (bearish): MACD histogram is negative and the monthly trend is bearish (hist=-31.810) — macro momentum is deteriorating. Institutional sellers are in control at the macro level. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 📈 Trend Momentum ✗Momentum Score 4/100 — still lagging vs Largecap peers, no confirmed relative strength yet 🌡 Regime ✗EMA200 falling — price -14% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (64w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗Monthly Trend (bearish): The monthly EMA-12 is below EMA-26 and close is below EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is down. Long-term structural headwind in force. ✗FII selling QoQ (-1.0% -> 15.9%) 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 47.7x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗Profit QoQ -60% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 48% off ATH ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹1,166.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
48.8%
-0.8σ
-9.3 vs 58% med
±1σ band 47–67%
Weekly delivery ▲
59.7%
+0.5σ
+4.1 vs 56% med
±1σ band 49–63%
Monthly delivery ▲
60.7%
+0.8σ
+2.8 vs 58% med
±1σ band 52–62%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 22 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹1,092.37
Close +0.38% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹15,227
0.66x vs normal
Turnover
0.38x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.8%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z +0.7σ
Open Gap: -0.44%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter59.4% →0.0% FII15.9% ↓1.0% DII18.0% ↑0.5% Public6.5% ↑0.5% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders3 →↑1 +1new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20263 inst. Total holders3 (+0) Increasing stake↑ 1 New entrants+ 1 Full exits− 1 Unchanged 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 22 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹1,092.37
Close +0.38% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹15,227
0.66x vs normal
Turnover
0.38x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.8%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z +0.7σ
Open Gap: -0.44%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹1,096 Base Low ₹1,081
Swing High ₹1,302
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹1,217
₹1,191
₹1,165
38.2% SUPPORT
₹1,217
50% MIDPOINT
₹1,191
61.8% GOLDEN
₹1,165
DEMAND ZONE No zone identifiedSUPPLY ZONE ₹1,349 +23.0% ₹1,331…₹1,349 ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹1,812.70 (+65.3%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹1,331…1,349 ₹1,349+23.0% DEMAND ZONE ₹1,081-1.4%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.46 (random walk) · ADX 38 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
13/ 100 W: NEUTRAL G1 event 7 · G6 setup 4 · G2 zone 3 · G3 div 2 · G4 osc 1 · RS RS -4 Top reasons A probable panic-selling peak — a large-volume reversal bar consistent with capitulation Price is at its 52-week low The last 3 structural swing lows each occurred on progressively lower volume — sellers are losing conviction at support, a classic supply exhaustion pattern Peak Turn Zone
22
/ 100
Top 10% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ +0.0
G1 event 12 · RS_PTZ RS 3 · G2_RETEST ZR 2 · G3 div 2 · G5 inst 1 · G6 setup 1 · G4 osc 1 Top reasons Distribution phase confirmed — the topping sequence is intact ADX confirms a strong directional trend is already in force bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3)
Institutional Quality
22
/ 100
Bot 21% in universe
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
29
/ 150
Bias votes:▲––▲–▼▼––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet
Valuation
11
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹279 292.4% above fair value
Momentum
4
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 4% of 146 Largecap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-13.9% below Weekly RSI34 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX38 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.46 — random walk Weekly candleHammer NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.46) RSI 34 Hammer: Sellers pushed price down sharply but buyers recovered by close — a classic bottom-reversal candle. Look for confirmation next week. Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -1.0% QoQ DII +0.5% QoQ P/E 47.7× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 48% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹79K CrMargin 3v3yr -2.7ppP/E 47.7xP/B 7.3xROE 19%ROCE 25%D/E 0.0xRev 5yr +17%/yrPft 5yr +11%/yrRev QoQ -2.8%Pft QoQ -59.9%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 19% ROCE 25% Sales Growth (QoQ) -3% Debt / Equity 0.03x CFO/EBITDA 60% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 48% off ATH Max Drawdown (vs Index) -36% Revenue Growth Level +17%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 36% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +11% Rev 5yr CAGR +17% Margin 3v3yr -2.7pp Debt Trend -0.04x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.75x P/B Ratio 7.3x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ABLBL ▼ ₹781%₹151 ₹79 +0.2% | Neutral | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 32/150 BUILDING | Weak Money Flow · 12 Neutral flow FII 12.7% – -0.1% Jun'26 DII 20.8% ▲ +0.6% Jun'26 DII 4(-1) ▼ ↑2 −1ex | — | 11/100 Expensive DY 0.6% FV ₹20 -286% above | 100.0% Fib ₹84 (+6.7%) SZ +11.0% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ABLBL
₹78.72
+0.13 (+0.2%)
25-Sep-26
YTD -38.3%1Y -46.2%-53.1% from ATH
Market Cycle
Downtrend in Progress
16dA 1dB C 20dD 33d ▶EDowntrend 1% of 52-week range
₹78 (52W Low)
₹151 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 14✓/13✗
Weak Money Flow · IQ 12
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
AVWAP✗ -22.0%
Sqz↓
W↓ 28
F-Wedge
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 1% of 52W range (10/19 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹87.40. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.2% · Vol 1.0× · gap -0.5% This week-3.0% · Vol normalSign of Weakness today Past month-8.5% · vs Nifty -15% (3mo) · 52W range: 1% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 32/150 ✓ Multiple bullish signals — RSI 25 (oversold), MACD below signal, Stoch 7 (oversold, turning up). ✓ Bollinger %B Reversal (bottom): Price pierced below the lower Bollinger Band (BB %B = 0.05) then closed back inside — statistical overextension rejected. Classic mean-reversion entry signal after a capitulation move. ✓ Price within 5% of 52-week low (1% of annual range) with regime not in active downtrend — deeply depressed price levels indicate washed-out supply. Historically this zone precedes strong mean-reversion bounces when selling pressure subsides. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Money flow is negative (MFI 28, CMF -0.28) — selling pressure is dominant on volume.14✓ 13✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
14
RS: Top 3% ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Near 52W Low (1% of range, down 48% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹78, 1.2% below) — structural support — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Multiple bullish signals — RSI 25 (oversold), MACD below signal, Stoch 7 (oversold, turning up). ✓Bollinger %B Reversal (bottom): Price pierced below the lower Bollinger Band (BB %B = 0.05) then closed back inside — statistical overextension rejected. Classic mean-reversion entry signal after a capitulation move. ✓Price within 5% of 52-week low (1% of annual range) with regime not in active downtrend — deeply depressed price levels indicate washed-out supply. Historically this zone precedes strong mean-reversion bounces when selling pressure subsides. ✓Williams %R Oversold: -90 (below −80). Williams %R at extreme lower band confirms price is at the low end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of oversold conditions alongside RSI and MACD. ✓RSI 24.5 — deeply oversold ✓MFI 28 — deeply oversold, seller exhaustion ✓BB %B reversal from oversold — price pierced below lower band and recovered; mean-reversion trigger ✓Stochastic 7 — deeply oversold; confirms RSI bottom context 🌡 Regime ✓ATR 1th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 28) 🏛 Institutional ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.6% -> 20.8%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
13
📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 28, CMF -0.28) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. ✗CMF -0.277 — severe selling pressure, not yet turning ✗CLV(5d) -0.41 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.51× — sellers committing 2.0× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗EMA200 Overextension: price is -0.2% above EMA200 — exceeds the historical 95th-percentile stretch. Adaptive mean-reversion risk is at its highest; statistically, extended moves this far above the long-run trend attract aggressive supply. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 📈 Trend Momentum ✗Momentum Score 1/100 — still lagging vs Smallcap peers, no confirmed relative strength yet 🌡 Regime ✗EMA200 falling — price -24% below, structural downtrend 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 49.3x — elevated valuation; limited margin of safety at bottom ✗Profit QoQ -47% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry ✗Debt/Equity 2.1x — high leverage; debt stress risk at bottom
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹87.68 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
52.0%
-0.7σ
-5.5 vs 58% med
±1σ band 49–67%
Weekly delivery ▲
60.3%
+0.2σ
+1.9 vs 58% med
±1σ band 48–68%
Monthly delivery ▲
67.7%
+0.8σ
+8.9 vs 59% med
±1σ band 46–70%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 12 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹78.71
Close +0.01% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹6,205
0.88x vs normal
Turnover
0.90x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
52.0%
z-score -0.7σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.53%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026DII buying ↑
Promoter46.6%→ flat FII12.7% →0.1% DII20.8% ↑0.6% Public19.4% ↓0.5% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders4 ↓1↑2 −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▼ 4 inst. Total holders4 (-1) Increasing stake↑ 2 Full exits− 1 Unchanged 2 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 12 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹78.71
Close +0.01% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹6,205
0.88x vs normal
Turnover
0.90x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
52.0%
z-score -0.7σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.53%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹79 Base Low ₹84
Swing High ₹87
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹86
₹86
₹85
38.2% SUPPORT
₹86
50% MIDPOINT
₹86
61.8% GOLDEN
₹85
DEMAND ZONE No zone identifiedSUPPLY ZONE ₹87 +11.0% ₹86…₹87 Critical Level
₹77.78(-1.2%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹87.40 (+11.0%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹86…87 ₹87+11.0%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.50 (random walk) · ADX 27 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
13/ 100 W: COUNTER ↓ G6 setup 6 · G2 zone 3 · G3 div 3 · G4 osc 1 Top reasons Price is at its 52-week low Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Price touched the lower Bollinger Band and is reversing back inside it Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
9
/ 100
▼ -0.7
G1 event 11 · G5 inst 1 · G3 div 0 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons Distribution phase confirmed — the topping sequence is intact bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3) Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm selling pressure
Institutional Quality
12
/ 100
Bot 7% in universe
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
32
/ 150
Bias votes:▲––––▼▼––1↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet
Valuation
11
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹20 285.7% above fair value
Momentum
1
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 1% of 89 Smallcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-24.4% below Weekly RSI25 Monthly ADX27 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.50 — random walk NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.50) RSI 25 Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII -0.1% QoQ DII +0.6% QoQ P/E 49.3× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹11K CrP/E 49.3xP/B 6.8xROE 15%ROCE 15%D/E 2.1xRev QoQ -5.9%Pft QoQ -47.3%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 15% ROCE 15% Sales Growth (QoQ) -6% Debt / Equity 2.14x CFO/EBITDA 55% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/B Ratio 6.8x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SCHAEFFLER ▼ ₹3,51852%₹4,468 ₹4,008 -0.4% | Conflicted | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 21/150 FORMING | Mixed · 44 Neutral flow FII 4.4% ▲ +0.1% Jun'26 DII 16.2% ▼ -0.1% Jun'26 DII 5(+0) – ↑1 ↓3 | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 11/100 Expensive DY 0.9% FV ₹844 -375% above | 50.0% Fib ₹4,014 (+0.2%) Darvas Box: ₹3,811 (tested 3×) – ₹4,445 (tested 2×) DZ +4.7% SZ +5.3% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated Bullish Eng | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SCHAEFFLER
₹4,007.70
−16.50 (-0.4%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY AUTO · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation RS vs Sector -4.1% SOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 16f
YTD +3.3%1Y -3.1%3Y +31.3%5Y +197.6%-19.1% from ATH
51% of 52-week range
₹3,518 (52W Low)
₹4,468 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 12 vs PTZ 11Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
DISTRIBUTING 2/4
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 11✓/6✗
Mixed · IQ 44
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (3w)
↓ -9% / ↑ +169% · n=2
Sqz
W= 56
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 52% of 52W range (7/10 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (11/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹4,219.00. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.4% · Vol 0.4×delivery collapsed — buying interest thin This week-5.0% · Vol contracting Past month-0.1% · vs Nifty +1% (3mo) · 52W range: 52%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 21/150 ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 48 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Bullish Engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✗ Death Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed below EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet fully aligned bearish — cross present, watch for confirmation. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.11✓ 6✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
RS: Top 48%▲ Bullish Eng. (pattern) 📊 Price & Structure ✓Bullish Engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. ✓Price just above prior swing low (₹4013, 0.1% away) — watching for break vs hold — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 48 (neutral), MACD above signal. 🌡 Regime ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (28w ago) — trend intact ✓Hurst 0.39 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓Relative Strength improving: Quarterly RS vs Nifty 50 is +1.4% and the 20-day RS slope is rising — institutional rotation INTO this stock is underway. Accelerating RS typically leads price breakouts by several weeks. ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.1% -> 4.4%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓ROE 20% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Bullish Engulfing (confirming pair — high conviction) — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
6
📦 Volume & Flow ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.2% above current price (at 4014). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed below EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet fully aligned bearish — cross present, watch for confirmation. 🏛 Institutional ✗DII selling QoQ (-0.1%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 49.8x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 19% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹3,912.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹3,835.80 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it ⚠ Delivery Signal SuppressedNear ex-dividend date (±3 bars) — delivery SM signal not counted (SM-DIV-1) Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
43.4%
-1.7σ
-17.1 vs 61% med
±1σ band 51–70%
Weekly delivery ▼
62.2%
+0.2σ
+2.9 vs 59% med
±1σ band 53–68%
Monthly delivery ▲
64.1%
+0.8σ
+5.6 vs 58% med
±1σ band 49–66%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 44 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹3,997.53
Close +0.25% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹14,423
0.95x vs normal
Turnover
0.40x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
43.4%
z-score -1.7σ
mth z +0.9σ
Open Gap: +0.22%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII selling ↓
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter74.1%→ flat FII4.4% ↑0.1% DII16.2% ↓0.1% Public5.3% →0.0% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders5 →↑1 ↓3
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20265 inst. Total holders5 (+0) Increasing stake↑ 1 Decreasing stake↓ 3 Unchanged 1 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 44 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹3,997.53
Close +0.25% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹14,423
0.95x vs normal
Turnover
0.40x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
43.4%
z-score -1.7σ
mth z +0.9σ
Open Gap: +0.22%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Testing 50% — midpoint; balance zone between bulls and bears
₹4,008 Base Low ₹3,818
Swing High ₹4,210
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹4,060
₹4,014
₹3,968
38.2% SUPPORT
₹4,060
50% MIDPOINT
₹4,014
61.8% GOLDEN
₹3,968
DEMAND ZONE ₹3,818 -4.7% ₹3,861…₹3,818 SUPPLY ZONE ₹4,219 +5.3% ₹4,168…₹4,219 Critical Level
₹3,818.10(-4.7%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹4,219.00 (+5.3%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹3,818.10 (-4.7%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹4,168…4,219 ₹4,219+5.3% DEMAND ZONE band ₹3,861…3,818 ₹3,818-4.7%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateUp Mid-termDown (weakening) Long-termUp (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting) · ADX 15 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Darvas Box — 20wk range
INSIDE BOX
Top: ₹4,445 (2× tested)
Bottom: ₹3,811 (3× tested)
Width: 16.6%
Classic read: accumulate near the box bottom (₹3,811), wait for a confirmed close above the box top (₹4,445) before treating a breakout as validated — the box alone is a range description, not an entry signal.
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
12/ 100Bot 25% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) G1 event 7 · G6 setup 3 · G3 div 2 Top reasons A probable panic-selling peak — a large-volume reversal bar consistent with capitulation Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Bollinger Bands are squeezed tight — a volatility contraction that often precedes a breakout Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
11
/ 100
▲ +1.4
G4 osc 5 · G5 inst 2 · G3 div 2 · G6 setup 2 Top reasons mth_macd_bear (+3.0) Delivery % is running below its 60-day average — a distribution footprint On-balance volume has fallen below its own trend average — a sign distribution is underway
Institutional Quality
44
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
21
/ 150
Bias votes:–––▲–––––1↑ 0↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Multiple compression signals are confirming together
Valuation
11
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹844 375.1% above fair value
Momentum
34
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 34% of 288 Midcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down (weakening)
Long: Up (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-0.3% below Weekly RSI48 Monthly ADX15 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.39 — mean-reverting Weekly candleBullish Engulfing Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Mean-reverting (H=0.39) RSI 48 ⬇ DX 77d +0.0% Bullish Engulfing: A strong green candle completely swallowed the prior red candle — bulls overpowered bears decisively. High-conviction reversal signal. Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.1% QoQ DII -0.1% QoQ P/E 49.8× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 19% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹62K CrP/E 49.8xP/B 10.2xROE 20%ROCE 27%D/E 0.0xRev QoQ +6.8%Pft QoQ +3.2%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 20% ROCE 27% Sales Growth (QoQ) +7% Debt / Equity 0.01x CFO/EBITDA 57% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 19% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -37% Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 37% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.92x P/B Ratio 10.2x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BERGEPAINT ▼ ₹39133%₹595 ₹458 +2.0% | Conflicted | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 24/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 26 Neutral flow FII 4.8% ▲ +0.1% Jun'26 DII 11.8% – +0.1% Jun'26 DII 2(+0) – ↓1 | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 11/100 Expensive DY 0.8% FV ₹112 -308% above | 89.0% Fib ₹458 (-0.1%) DZ +14.7% SZ +23.5% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BERGEPAINT
₹458.35
+8.95 (+2.0%)
25-Sep-26
CONSUMER DURABLES · Largecap · 🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD -14.6%1Y -14.4%3Y -36.2%5Y -35.4%-47.5% from ATH
33% of 52-week range
₹391 (52W Low)
₹595 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 14 vs PTZ 14Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 11✓/10✗
⇆ BTZ MIXED (decaying/wk+4.5)
Weak Money Flow · IQ 26
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↑ +2% / ↑ +161% · n=1
Sqz↓
W↓ 40
★ FII +0.14pp DII +0.07pp (QoQ)
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
3/13 ACCUM · CONSUMER
📈 SC IN SECTOR
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 33% of 52W range (9/15 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (14/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹611.40. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+2.0% · Vol 0.6× · gap +0.6% This week-0.1% · Vol expanding Past month-9.0% · vs Nifty -8% (3mo) · 52W range: 33%monthly trend bearish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 24/150 ✓ Multiple bullish signals — RSI 39 (neutral), MACD above signal, Stoch 24 (oversold, turning up). ✓ Fibonacci Support: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% below current price (at 458). Price resting just above a Fibonacci retracement is a classic entry zone for trend continuation — institutions reference these levels when placing buy orders. ✓ FII buying QoQ (+0.1% -> 4.8%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions.11✓ 10✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
RS: Top 18% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹456, 0.6% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹458, 0.1% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Multiple bullish signals — RSI 39 (neutral), MACD above signal, Stoch 24 (oversold, turning up). 🌡 Regime ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 40) 🏛 Institutional ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.1% -> 4.8%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 12% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Profit QoQ +21% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis ✓Debt/Equity 0.1x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓CFO/EBITDA 67% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern 🕯 Pattern ✓Fibonacci Support: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% below current price (at 458). Price resting just above a Fibonacci retracement is a classic entry zone for trend continuation — institutions reference these levels when placing buy orders.
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
10
⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 36, CMF -0.11) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗EMA200 falling — price -8% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (2w ago) — macro bear structure ✗Hurst 0.57 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗Monthly Trend (bearish): The monthly EMA-12 is below EMA-26 and close is below EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is down. Long-term structural headwind in force. 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 48.5x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 47% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹448.10 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
44.0%
-0.5σ
-4.2 vs 48% med
±1σ band 39–60%
Weekly delivery ▲
60.3%
+1.8σ
+15.1 vs 45% med
±1σ band 35–53%
Monthly delivery ▲
46.0%
-0.2σ
-0.0 vs 46% med
±1σ band 38–59%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 26 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹456.01
Close +0.51% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,284
0.84x vs normal
Turnover
0.57x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
44.0%
z-score -0.5σ
mth z +0.0σ
Open Gap: +0.56%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.6x avg) — no conviction in the current direction. Close +0.5% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑
Promoter75.0%→ flat FII4.8% ↑0.1% DII11.8% →0.1% Public8.4% ↓0.2% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders2 →↓1
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20262 inst. Total holders2 (+0) Decreasing stake↓ 1 Unchanged 1 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 26 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹456.01
Close +0.51% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,284
0.84x vs normal
Turnover
0.57x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
44.0%
z-score -0.5σ
mth z +0.0σ
Open Gap: +0.56%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.6x avg) — no conviction in the current direction. Close +0.5% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹458 Base Low ₹444
Swing High ₹566
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹519
₹505
₹490
38.2% SUPPORT
₹519
50% MIDPOINT
₹505
61.8% GOLDEN
₹490
DEMAND ZONE ₹391 -14.7% ₹398…₹391 SUPPLY ZONE ₹566 +23.5% ₹557…₹566 ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹611.40 (+33.4%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹391.10 (-14.7%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹557…566 ₹566+23.5% DEMAND ZONE band ₹398…391 ₹391-14.7%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateDown Mid-termDown Long-termDown
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.57 (trending) · ADX 35 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
14/ 100 W: NEUTRAL G1 event 5 · G4 osc 4 · SC_BULL SC 2 · RS_BTZ RS 2 · G5 inst 1 Top reasons A capitulation-style selling event Monthly MACD has turned bullish This bar closed in the upper part of its range — buyers were in control by the close Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
14
/ 100
▲ +1.0
G3 div 4 · G6 setup 4 · G2 zone 3 · G5 inst 2 Top reasons ADX confirms a strong directional trend is already in force Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm selling pressure
Institutional Quality
26
/ 100
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
24
/ 150
Bias votes:––––––▼––0↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet
Valuation
11
/ 100
Expensive
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹112 308.2% above fair value
Momentum
49
/ 100
Average
Bot 49% of 146 Largecap
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-8.4% below Weekly RSI39 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX35 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.57 — trending NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH Trending momentum (H=0.57) RSI 39 ⬇ DX 9d +0.1% Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.1% QoQ DII +0.1% QoQ P/E 48.5× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 47% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹60K CrMargin 3v3yr +0.7ppP/E 48.5xP/B 7.7xROE 17%ROCE 22%D/E 0.1xRev 5yr +12%/yrPft 5yr +10%/yrRev QoQ +25.0%Pft QoQ +20.9%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 17% ROCE 22% Sales Growth (QoQ) +25% Debt / Equity 0.09x CFO/EBITDA 67% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 47% off ATH Max Drawdown (vs Index) -46% Revenue Growth Level +12%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 46% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +10% Rev 5yr CAGR +12% Margin 3v3yr +0.7pp Debt Trend -0.12x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.99x P/B Ratio 7.7x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EXIDEIND ▼ ₹28765%₹496 ₹424 -0.7% | Neutral | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 18/150 FORMING | Mixed · 48 OBV↑ ▲ Smart money buying @ ₹422(bias only) FII 10.6% ▲ +0.3% Jun'26 DII 19.3% ▲ +0.2% Jun'26 DII 5(+2) ▲ ↓1 +3new −1ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 31/100 Pricey DY 0.5% FV ₹197 -115% above | 79.0% Fib ₹425 (+0.2%) DZ +4.4% SZ +17.2% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position Bullish Eng | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EXIDEIND
₹423.65
−2.90 (-0.7%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY AUTO · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ↗ RS vs Sector +7.4% SOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 16f
YTD +17.0%1Y -0.4%3Y +58.8%5Y +144.2%-31.7% from ATH
Market Cycle
Demand Taking Over
16dA 35dB 60dC 1d ▶DUptrend 1dE 65% of 52-week range
₹287 (52W Low)
₹496 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE↻ FULL CYCLE✓ DEMAND CONFIRMED
⚠ Aged SC
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 16✓/8✗
SM: ACCUM 2/5
Mixed · IQ 48
Pattern
Established (4w)
⚡ BOS (32b ago) · SS 2/5
AVWAP ✓ +9.4%
Sqz
W= 57
R-Wedge
★ FII +0.32pp DII +0.18pp (QoQ)
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
3/10 ACCUM · AUTO_COMPONENTS
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·Smart money Accumulating·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 65% of 52W range (12/18 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. Early evidence — 2 of 5 signals, low confidence · signals strengthening over the past month. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹496.40. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bullish — BTZ stronger, watch for breakout above range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.7% · Vol 0.8× This week-2.8% · Vol contractingsmart money accumulating Past month-4.6% · vs Nifty +13% (3mo) · 52W range: 65%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 18/150 ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Approaching a demand (support) zone 4.4% below at ₹405.10 — watch for a bounce. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 45 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✗ Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. ✗ Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.2% above current price (at 425). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume.16✓ 8✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
16
▲ Bullish Eng. (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested 15× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. ✓🏦 Smart money footprint: large investors actively buying — confirmed 1w ago (volume/delivery-based, not ownership data — FII/DII shareholding doesn't yet confirm this). 📊 Price & Structure ✓Bullish Engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹420, 0.8% below) — structural support — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 45 (neutral), MACD above signal. 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓Approaching a demand (support) zone 4.4% below at ₹405.10 — watch for a bounce. ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (33w ago) — trend intact 🏛 Institutional ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.3% -> 10.6%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.2% -> 19.3%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 12% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Profit QoQ +62% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis ✓Debt/Equity 0.1x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓CFO/EBITDA 95% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Bullish Engulfing — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
8
RS: Bottom 23% ⚠ 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.2% above current price (at 425). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. ✗CLV(5d) -0.33 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet — Confirming indicators 🏛 Institutional ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 40.4x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗P/E is 1.34x its own 5yr median (30x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗ROE 6% — low returns; quality concern at bottom 🕯 Pattern ✗Rising wedge
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1.6Y agoSporadic (21%) Turn ZoneGolden Cross LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 32% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹421.60 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹421.60 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
48.5%
+0.5σ
+3.3 vs 45% med
±1σ band 35–53%
Weekly delivery ▬
45.2%
+0.7σ
+3.8 vs 41% med
±1σ band 32–47%
Monthly delivery ▲
47.1%
+0.9σ
+7.2 vs 40% med
±1σ band 33–48%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 48 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹424.38
Close -0.17% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹25,171
1.17x vs normal
Turnover
0.74x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.5%
z-score +0.3σ
mth z +1.0σ
Open Gap: +0.07%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII buying ↑
Promoter46.0%→ flat FII10.6% ↑0.3% DII19.3% ↑0.2% Public24.1% ↓0.5% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders5 ↑2↓1 +3new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 5 inst. Total holders5 (+2) Decreasing stake↓ 1 New entrants+ 3 Full exits− 1 Unchanged 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 48 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹424.38
Close -0.17% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹25,171
1.17x vs normal
Turnover
0.74x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.5%
z-score +0.3σ
mth z +1.0σ
Open Gap: +0.07%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹424 Base Low ₹405
Swing High ₹496
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹462
₹451
₹440
38.2% SUPPORT
₹462
50% MIDPOINT
₹451
61.8% GOLDEN
₹440
DEMAND ZONE ₹405 -4.4% ₹411…₹405 SUPPLY ZONE ₹496 +17.2% ₹488…₹496 Critical Level
₹405.10(-4.4%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹496.40 (+17.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹405.10 (-4.4%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹488…496 ₹496+17.2% DEMAND ZONE band ₹411…405 ₹405-4.4%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.51 (random walk) · ADX 21 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
13/ 100 W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) RS_BTZ RS 5 · G6 setup 5 · G4 osc 2 · G5 inst 1 · G1 event 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
6
/ 100
Bot 12% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -1.0
G2 zone 3 · G4 osc 2 · G6 setup 2 · G5 inst 2 · RS RS -3 Top reasons Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant Monthly ADX confirms a strong uptrend is in force — top exhaustion is more likely from here ADX is easing off an uptrend — momentum is cooling, a caution flag near a top
Institutional Quality
48
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
18
/ 150
Bias votes:▼▲–▲▲––––3↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Multiple compression signals are confirming together
Valuation
31
/ 100
Slightly Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹197 115.4% above fair value
Momentum
76
/ 100
Above Average
Top 24% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200+6.6% above Weekly RSI45 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX21 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.51 — random walk Weekly candleBullish Engulfing Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL No clear momentum (H=0.51) RSI 45 ⬆ GX 163d +31.9% Bullish Engulfing: A strong green candle completely swallowed the prior red candle — bulls overpowered bears decisively. High-conviction reversal signal. Vol & Turn Zone ▸SC: 3.0× vol · AR: 0.9× — weak Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.3% QoQ DII +0.2% QoQ P/E 40.4× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 32% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹38K CrMargin 3v3yr -1.3ppP/E 40.4xP/B 2.6xROE 6%ROCE 9%D/E 0.1xRev 5yr +12%/yrPft 5yr +1%/yrRev QoQ +16.8%Pft QoQ +61.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 6% ROCE 9% Sales Growth (QoQ) +17% Debt / Equity 0.11x CFO/EBITDA 95% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 32% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -48% Revenue Growth Level +12%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 48% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +1% Rev 5yr CAGR +12% Margin 3v3yr -1.3pp Debt Trend +0.06x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.34x P/B Ratio 2.6x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ADANIPORTS ▼ ₹1,29283%₹1,891 ₹1,788 +0.2% | Neutral | Consolidation Building the Base — Institutions accumulating RangeNo event | 16/150 FORMING | Moderate Inst. · 65 Neutral flow FII 15.6% ▲ +2.3% Jun'26 DII 13.6% ▼ -0.3% Jun'26 DII 2(+0) – ↓2 | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 28/100 Expensive DY 0.4% FV ₹753 -137% above | 24.0% Fib ₹1,756 (-1.8%) Darvas Box: ₹1,593 (tested 2×) – ₹1,891 (tested 2×) DZ +27.7% SZ +4.0% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position Hanging Man | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ADANIPORTS
₹1,788.00
+2.70 (+0.2%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY INFRA · Largecap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +5.5% SOS staleMF REDUCING 5mo · 1f⚠ Conflict
YTD +21.6%1Y +26.6%3Y +125.7%5Y +160.2%-5.5% from ATH
82% of 52-week range
₹1,292 (52W Low)
₹1,891 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE👁 BTZ WATCH · 15
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 14✓/9✗
Moderate Inst. · IQ 65
Pattern
Established (4w)
↑ +10% / ↑ +14% · n=6
Sqz↑
W↑ 64
F-Wedge
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (5 spikes)
Cov 20/20
0/7 ACCUM · INFRA
Index: Consolidation
📈 SC IN SECTOR
Trade & Risk
SC↑
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 83% of 52W range (10/16 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹1,859.70. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bullish — BTZ stronger, watch for breakout above range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.2% · Vol 0.3× · gap +0.4% This week-2.0% · Vol contracting Past month+5.7% · vs Nifty +4% (3mo) · 52W range: 83%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 16/150 ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Money flow is positive (MFI 65, CMF +0.11) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✗ Hanging Man pattern on the weekly chart. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.14✓ 9✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
14
📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹1783, 0.3% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹1756, 1.8% away) — confluence with technical level 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Money flow is positive (MFI 65, CMF +0.11) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✓CMF +0.109 — money flowing in, institutional buying — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+11.497) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✓TTM Squeeze firing ↑ 🌡 Regime ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (64w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 64) 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+2.3% -> 15.6%) 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 25% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓CFO/EBITDA 69% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
9
RS: Bottom 42%▲ Hanging Man (pattern) 📊 Price & Structure ✗Hanging Man pattern on the weekly chart. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.56 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗DII selling QoQ (-0.3%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh ✗MF sector conviction: REDUCING 5 months, 1 funds — diversified funds reducing sector weight (AMFI disclosure) ✗⚠ Catalyst vs MF conflict — manual sector catalyst signal contradicts MF positioning direction; review catalyst rationale before trading 🕯 Pattern ✗Weekly candle: Hanging Man (bearish — sellers still in control)
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 5% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹1,744.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹1,806.30 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
46.9%
-0.8σ
-7.6 vs 55% med
±1σ band 45–65%
Weekly delivery ▲
66.7%
+1.9σ
+16.4 vs 50% med
±1σ band 42–59%
Monthly delivery ▲
63.5%
+2.8σ
+17.6 vs 46% med
±1σ band 40–52%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 65 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹1,788.43
Close -0.02% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹43,202
0.80x vs normal
Turnover
0.37x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
46.9%
z-score -0.8σ
mth z +2.3σ
Open Gap: +0.36%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.4x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII selling ↓
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter66.0% ↓2.0% FII15.6% ↑2.3% DII13.6% ↓0.3% Public4.8% →0.1% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders2 →↓2
Sector MF: REDUCING · 1 funds · 5mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20262 inst. Total holders2 (+0) Decreasing stake↓ 2 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 65 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹1,788.43
Close -0.02% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹43,202
0.80x vs normal
Turnover
0.37x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
46.9%
z-score -0.8σ
mth z +2.3σ
Open Gap: +0.36%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.4x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹1,788 Base Low ₹1,640
Swing High ₹1,791
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹1,734
₹1,716
₹1,698
38.2% SUPPORT
₹1,734
50% MIDPOINT
₹1,716
61.8% GOLDEN
₹1,698
DEMAND ZONE ₹1,294 -27.7% ₹1,317…₹1,294 SUPPLY ZONE ₹1,860 +4.0% ₹1,840…₹1,860 Critical Level
₹1,593.10(-10.9%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹1,859.70 (+4.0%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹1,293.50 (-27.7%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹1,840…1,860 ₹1,860+4.0% DEMAND ZONE band ₹1,317…1,294 ₹1,294-27.7%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.56 (trending) · ADX 21 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Darvas Box — 20wk range
INSIDE BOX
Top: ₹1,891 (2× tested)
Bottom: ₹1,593 (2× tested)
Width: 18.7%
Classic read: accumulate near the box bottom (₹1,593), wait for a confirmed close above the box top (₹1,891) before treating a breakout as validated — the box alone is a range description, not an entry signal.
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
15/ 100 W: ALIGNED ↑ (2w) G1 event 5 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · G5 inst 3 · ZONE_TEST ZT 2 · G6 setup 0 · G4 osc 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired bullish — the compression is releasing A capitulation-style selling event Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
2
/ 100
Bot 3% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -9.0
G2 zone 3 · G6 setup 1 · G4 osc 1 · RS RS -3 Top reasons Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history Stochastic is overbought and turning down
Institutional Quality
65
/ 100
Top 3% in universe
Moderate Inst.
Coil Energy Score
16
/ 150
Bias votes:––––––▲––1↑ 0↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Repeated high-volume, price-holds-steady bars recently — buyers/sellers absorbing supply in a cluster, not just once
Valuation
28
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹753 137.4% above fair value
Momentum
95
/ 100
Strong Momentum
Top 5% of 146 Largecap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+8.8% above Weekly RSI57 Monthly ADX21 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.56 — trending Weekly candleHanging Man NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH Trending momentum (H=0.56) RSI 57 Hanging Man: Same shape as a Hammer but appearing after a rally — buyers failed to hold gains, suggesting the uptrend may be exhausting itself. Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +2.3% QoQ DII -0.3% QoQ PROM ↓ -2.0% P/E 29.5× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 5% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹3.9L CrMargin 3v3yr +0.0ppP/E 29.5xP/B 4.3xROE 16%ROCE 14%D/E 0.7xRev 5yr +25%/yrPft 5yr +21%/yrRev QoQ +0.8%Pft QoQ +10.3%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 16% ROCE 14% Sales Growth (QoQ) +1% Debt / Equity 0.66x CFO/EBITDA 69% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 5% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -46% Revenue Growth Level +25%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 46% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +21% Rev 5yr CAGR +25% Margin 3v3yr +0.0pp Debt Trend -0.36x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.15x P/B Ratio 4.3x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ELGIEQUIP ▼ ₹40879%₹653 ₹603 -1.0% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 5% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 18/150 FORMING | Mixed · 49 Neutral flow FII 21.9% ▼ -0.3% Jun'26 DII 10.1% ▲ +1.0% Jun'26 DII 2(+0) – | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 11/100 Expensive DY 0.4% FV ₹151 -300% above | 79.0% Fib ₹602 (-0.2%) DZ +5.6% SZ +6.4% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ELGIEQUIP
₹603.00
−5.80 (-1.0%)
25-Sep-26
INDUSTRIALS · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD +27.3%1Y +19.2%3Y +22.9%5Y +174.5%-24.5% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
2dA 30dB 115d ▶CTesting 20dD 2dE 79% of 52-week range
₹408 (52W Low)
₹653 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 11✓/5✗
Mixed · IQ 49
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↑ +22% · n=1
AVWAP↑ +12.4%
Sqz
W↑ 58
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (5 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 5% big days
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 79% of 52W range (7/9 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹641.40. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bullish — BTZ stronger, watch for breakout above range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-1.0% · Vol 0.5× This week-1.1% · Vol contracting Past month-2.4% · vs Nifty +3% (3mo) · 52W range: 79%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 18/150 ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+10.647) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✓ Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 33.5% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year best (own-history percentile 95/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 46 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.11✓ 5✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 33.5% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year best (own-history percentile 95/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹603, 0.0% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹602, 0.2% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+10.647) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. 🌡 Regime ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 58) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓Relative Strength improving: Quarterly RS vs Nifty 50 is +2.6% and the 20-day RS slope is rising — institutional rotation INTO this stock is underway. Accelerating RS typically leads price breakouts by several weeks. ✓DII buying QoQ (+1.0% -> 10.1%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 15% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.2x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
5
RS: Bottom 46% 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 46 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.3% -> 21.9%) 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 42.0x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 25% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹475.05 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹472.00 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
43.2%
-0.7σ
-8.7 vs 52% med
±1σ band 40–59%
Weekly delivery ▼
49.8%
-0.2σ
-3.4 vs 53% med
±1σ band 42–62%
Monthly delivery ▼
35.1%
-0.5σ
-7.8 vs 43% med
±1σ band 28–53%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 49 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹602.17
Close +0.14% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,654
0.78x vs normal
Turnover
0.48x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
43.2%
z-score -0.9σ
mth z -1.4σ
Open Gap: +0.24%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.5x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
Promoter31.2%→ flat FII21.9% ↓0.3% DII10.1% ↑1.0% Public36.3% ↓0.7% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders2 →stable
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20262 inst. Total holders2 (+0) Unchanged 2 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 49 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹602.17
Close +0.14% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,654
0.78x vs normal
Turnover
0.48x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
43.2%
z-score -0.9σ
mth z -1.4σ
Open Gap: +0.24%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.5x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹603 Base Low ₹596
Swing High ₹624
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹613
₹610
₹607
38.2% SUPPORT
₹613
50% MIDPOINT
₹610
61.8% GOLDEN
₹607
DEMAND ZONE ₹569 -5.6% ₹577…₹569 SUPPLY ZONE ₹641 +6.4% ₹632…₹641 Critical Level
₹585.00(-3.0%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹641.40 (+6.4%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹569.45 (-5.6%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹632…641 ₹641+6.4% DEMAND ZONE band ₹577…569 ₹569-5.6%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.47 (random walk) · ADX 13 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
14/ 100 W: NEUTRAL G1 event 7 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · G6 setup 1 · G4 osc 1 · SC_BULL SC 0 Top reasons A probable panic-selling peak — a large-volume reversal bar consistent with capitulation Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
8
/ 100
Bot 19% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -5.0
G1 event 5 · G2 zone 3 · G3 div 2 · G5 inst 1 · RS RS -3 Top reasons bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3) Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant A resistance-holding rally formed recently — supply stepping in on the rally after weakness
Institutional Quality
49
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
18
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––––▼–––0↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility is actively tightening further, right now OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Multiple compression signals are confirming together
Valuation
11
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹151 299.9% above fair value
Momentum
70
/ 100
Above Average
Top 30% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Mixed vs EMA 200+7.2% above Weekly RSI46 Monthly ADX13 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.47 — random walk Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL No clear momentum (H=0.47) RSI 46 Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -0.3% QoQ DII +1.0% QoQ P/E 42.0× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 25% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹19K CrMargin 3v3yr +2.7ppP/E 42.0xP/B 8.6xROE 19%ROCE 22%D/E 0.2xRev 5yr +15%/yrPft 5yr +31%/yrRev QoQ -4.6%Pft QoQ -19.5%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 19% ROCE 22% Sales Growth (QoQ) -5% Debt / Equity 0.24x CFO/EBITDA 64% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 25% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -43% Revenue Growth Level +15%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 43% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +31% Rev 5yr CAGR +15% Margin 3v3yr +2.7pp Debt Trend -0.14x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.97x P/B Ratio 8.6x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RKFORGE ▼ ₹46078%₹773 ₹704 -0.7% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 7% | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 16/150 FORMING | Mixed · 36 Neutral flow FII 20.4% ▼ -1.3% Jun'26 DII 5.1% ▲ +0.6% Jun'26 DII 2(+1) ▲ +2new −1ex | A · Severe Deep past decline — re-rating story | 38/100 Pricey DY 0.1% FV ₹159 -344% above | 62.0% Fib ₹703 (-0.3%) DZ +6.4% SZ +9.7% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position Hammer | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RKFORGE
₹704.50
−5.05 (-0.7%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY AUTO · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +23.5% SOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 16f
YTD +34.7%1Y +22.1%3Y -1.2%5Y +476.8%-33.8% from ATH
78% of 52-week range
₹460 (52W Low)
₹773 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
★ TURNAROUND · SEVERE
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 12✓/9✗
Mixed · IQ 36
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↑ +108% / ↑ +3% · n=2
Sqz
W↑ 66
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (3 spikes)
Cov 20/20
3/10 ACCUM · AUTO_COMPONENTS
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 7% big days
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 78% of 52W range (8/15 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has suffered a severe drawdown (55–70%+), qualifying as a turnaround setup — historically 57–65% of setups in this range reached 10x+ over 5–7 years. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹772.80. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bullish — BTZ stronger, watch for breakout above range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.7% · Vol 0.4× This week-2.7% · Vol contracting Past month-3.8% · vs Nifty +30% (3mo) · 52W range: 78%mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 16/150 ✓ Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✓ Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 88/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+7.879) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 48 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases.12✓ 9✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
12
▲ Hammer (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 88/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 33.7% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year best (own-history percentile 97/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹702, 0.4% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹703, 0.3% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+7.879) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. 🌡 Regime ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 66) 🏛 Institutional ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.6% -> 5.1%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 27% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓CFO/EBITDA 80% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Hammer — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
9
RS: Bottom 6% ⚠ 📦 Volume & Flow ✗CLV(5d) -0.36 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 48 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-1.3% -> 20.4%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 114.0x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗P/E is 2.57x its own 5yr median (44x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗ROE 3% — low returns; quality concern at bottom ✗Operating margin contracting -3.7pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — profitability weakening
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Severe decline · 34% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹562.55 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹547.95 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
48.3%
-0.3σ
-1.5 vs 50% med
±1σ band 42–60%
Weekly delivery ▲
53.3%
+0.2σ
+3.2 vs 50% med
±1σ band 43–59%
Monthly delivery ▼
46.8%
+0.5σ
+1.4 vs 45% med
±1σ band 32–52%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 36 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹703.91
Close +0.08% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹15,305
0.75x vs normal
Turnover
0.43x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.3%
z-score -0.2σ
mth z -0.5σ
Open Gap: -0.08%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
Promoter43.4% →0.1% FII20.4% ↓1.3% DII5.1% ↑0.6% Public30.9% ↑0.5% Pledge0.2% -0.0% DII Holders2 ↑1+2new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 2 inst. Total holders2 (+1) New entrants+ 2 Full exits− 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 36 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹703.91
Close +0.08% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹15,305
0.75x vs normal
Turnover
0.43x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.3%
z-score -0.2σ
mth z -0.5σ
Open Gap: -0.08%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹704 Base Low ₹659
Swing High ₹773
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹729
₹716
₹703
38.2% SUPPORT
₹729
50% MIDPOINT
₹716
61.8% GOLDEN
₹703
DEMAND ZONE ₹659 -6.4% ₹672…₹659 SUPPLY ZONE ₹773 +9.7% ₹761…₹773 Critical Level
₹659.10(-6.4%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹772.80 (+9.7%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹659.10 (-6.4%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹761…773 ₹773+9.7% DEMAND ZONE band ₹672…659 ₹659-6.4%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.54 (random walk) · ADX 20 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
14/ 100 W: ALIGNED ↑ (2w) RS_BTZ RS 5 · G1 event 3 · G4 osc 3 · G6 setup 2 · SC_BULL SC 0 · G5 inst 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events A capitulation-style selling event Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
0
/ 100
Bot 1% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -0.5
G3 div 2 · RS RS -3 Top reasons On-balance volume has fallen below its own trend average — a sign distribution is underway
Institutional Quality
36
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
16
/ 150
Bias votes:–––––––––0↑ 0↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Multiple compression signals are confirming together
Valuation
38
/ 100
Slightly Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹159 344.1% above fair value
Momentum
84
/ 100
Strong Momentum
Top 16% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Mixed vs EMA 200+13.3% above Weekly RSI48 Monthly ADX20 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.54 — random walk Weekly candleHammer Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL No clear momentum (H=0.54) RSI 48 Hammer: Sellers pushed price down sharply but buyers recovered by close — a classic bottom-reversal candle. Look for confirmation next week. Long-Term Compounding Case A severely beaten-down quality business. Deep declines like this historically create the strongest long-term recovery opportunities over a 5–7 year horizon. FII -1.3% QoQ DII +0.6% QoQ P/E 114.0× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Severe decline, 34% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹13K CrMargin 3v3yr -3.7ppP/E 114.0xP/B 3.9xROE 3%ROCE 6%D/E 0.7xRev 5yr +27%/yrPft 5yr +30%/yrRev QoQ +0.0%Pft QoQ -16.1%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 3% ROCE 6% Debt / Equity 0.74x CFO/EBITDA 80% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Severe) Currently Unloved 34% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -75% Revenue Growth Level +27%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 75% peak-to-trough (Severe) — 57-65% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest, median ultimate multiple 12-16x Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +30% Rev 5yr CAGR +27% Margin 3v3yr -3.7pp Debt Trend -0.67x Cash-Flow Stage Growth CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / + Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 2.57x P/B Ratio 3.9x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JSWCEMENT ▼ ₹10720%₹152 ₹115 -0.2% | Neutral | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event⚠ UTAD FAILED | 51/150 BUILDING | Weak Money Flow · 26 VSA Absorb FII 3.7% ▲ +0.8% Jun'26 DII 11.5% ▲ +2.8% Jun'26 DII 3(+1) ▲ +3new −2ex | — | 50/100 Fair DY 0.4% FV ₹76 -53% above | 100.0% Fib ₹115 (-0.4%) DZ +7.6% SZ +18.1% | CAUTION Reversal test failed | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JSWCEMENT
₹115.47
−0.24 (-0.2%)
25-Sep-26
CEMENT · Midcap
YTD -2.9%1Y -23.6%-28.8% from ATH
Market Cycle
Declining Demand
16dA 21dB 1dC 2d ▶DDeclining Demand E 19% of 52-week range
₹107 (52W Low)
₹152 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 13✓/10✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — bottom evidence weakening -2.0
Weak Money Flow · IQ 26
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
AVWAP✗ -12.0%
Sqz↓
W↓ 38
★ FII +0.77pp DII +2.75pp (QoQ)
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 20% of 52W range (9/16 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹136.40. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bearish — PTZ stronger, watch for breakdown below range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.2% · Vol 1.7× This week-1.7% · Vol expandingSign of Weakness today Past month-7.6% · vs Nifty -10% (3mo) · 52W range: 20% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 51/150 ✓ Multiple bullish signals — RSI 29 (oversold), MACD below signal, Stoch 20 (oversold, turning up). ✓ Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓ Fibonacci Support: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.4% below current price (at 115). Price resting just above a Fibonacci retracement is a classic entry zone for trend continuation — institutions reference these levels when placing buy orders. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions.13✓ 10✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
13
RS: Top 13% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹115, 0.4% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹115, 0.4% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Multiple bullish signals — RSI 29 (oversold), MACD below signal, Stoch 20 (oversold, turning up). ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓CCI Oversold: -113 (below −100). CCI under −100 places price in the lower 15% of its 20-bar typical-price distribution — statistically oversold and historically associated with mean-reversion bounces. ✓RSI 29.4 — deeply oversold ✓Stochastic 20 — deeply oversold; confirms RSI bottom context 🌡 Regime ✓ATR 4th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 38) 🏛 Institutional ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.8% -> 3.7%) ✓DII buying QoQ (+2.8% -> 11.5%) 📋 Fundamentals ✓CFO/EBITDA 75% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit 🕯 Pattern ✓Fibonacci Support: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.4% below current price (at 115). Price resting just above a Fibonacci retracement is a classic entry zone for trend continuation — institutions reference these levels when placing buy orders.
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
10
⚠ UTAD FAILED · 50d ago ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 38, CMF -0.15) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.62× — sellers committing 1.6× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗EMA200 falling — price -10% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (3w ago) — macro bear structure ✗Hurst 0.56 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. 📋 Fundamentals ✗Profit QoQ -58% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹124.36 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
47.7%
-1.0σ
-8.6 vs 56% med
±1σ band 48–67%
Weekly delivery ▼
57.4%
+0.6σ
+6.8 vs 51% med
±1σ band 37–63%
Monthly delivery ▲
56.3%
+0.6σ
+3.9 vs 52% med
±1σ band 36–61%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 26 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹115.15
Close +0.28% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹3,941
0.68x vs normal
Turnover
1.63x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
47.7%
z-score -0.9σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.16%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII buying ↑
Promoter72.0% →0.0% FII3.7% ↑0.8% DII11.5% ↑2.8% Public11.8% ↓2.8% Pledge0.0% -0.0% DII Holders3 ↑1+3new −2exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 3 inst. Total holders3 (+1) New entrants+ 3 Full exits− 2 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 26 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹115.15
Close +0.28% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹3,941
0.68x vs normal
Turnover
1.63x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
47.7%
z-score -0.9σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.16%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹115 Base Low ₹115
Swing High ₹136
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹128
₹126
₹123
38.2% SUPPORT
₹128
50% MIDPOINT
₹126
61.8% GOLDEN
₹123
DEMAND ZONE ₹107 -7.6% ₹109…₹107 SUPPLY ZONE ₹136 +18.1% ₹135…₹136 Critical Level
₹115.03(-0.4%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹136.40 (+18.1%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹106.65 (-7.6%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹135…136 ₹136+18.1% DEMAND ZONE band ₹109…107 ₹107-7.6%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.56 (trending) · ADX 37 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
9/ 100Bot 13% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: COUNTER ↓ G6 setup 4 · G4 osc 3 · SC_BULL SC 2 Top reasons biz_lifecycle_stage=GROWTH (+2) Volume has been drying up progressively inside the base — supply is thinning out Historical volatility is in the most compressed decile seen in this stock's recent history Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
15
/ 100
▲ +2.8
G1 event 13 · G6 setup 2 · G3 div 2 · G5 inst 1 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons Distribution phase confirmed — the topping sequence is intact ADX confirms a strong directional trend is already in force A buying frenzy peak — exhaustion buying at an elevated level
Institutional Quality
26
/ 100
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
51
/ 150
Bias votes:▲––▲–▼▼––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day persistent_compression: HV20_pct=2≤10 AND HV60_pct=2≤20 Wyckoff_PhaseB (+5)
Valuation
50
/ 100
Fair Value
VALUE TRAP RISK
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹76 52.7% above fair value
Momentum
24
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 24% of 288 Midcap
VALUE TRAP RISK
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-9.7% below Weekly RSI29 Monthly ADX37 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.56 — trending NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH Trending momentum (H=0.56) RSI 29 ⬇ DX 15d -6.4% Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII +0.8% QoQ DII +2.8% QoQ P/E 21.8× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹17K CrMargin 3v3yr -1.7ppP/E 21.8xP/B 2.4xROE 15%ROCE 11%D/E 0.7xRev 5yr +11%/yrPft 5yr +19%/yrRev QoQ +0.1%Pft QoQ -57.7%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 15% ROCE 11% Sales Growth (QoQ) +0% Debt / Equity 0.68x CFO/EBITDA 75% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +19% Rev 5yr CAGR +11% Margin 3v3yr -1.7pp Debt Trend -0.12x Cash-Flow Stage Growth CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / + Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/B Ratio 2.4x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JKCEMENT ▼ ₹4,67214%₹7,000 ₹5,000 -3.6% | Conflicted | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 34/150 BUILDING | Weak Money Flow · 19 Neutral flow FII 16.9% – -0.0% Jun'26 DII 23.7% – -0.0% Jun'26 DII 9(-1) ▼ ↑1 ↓2 +4new −5ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 21/100 Expensive DY 0.4% FV ₹1,566 -219% above | 38.0% Fib ₹5,018 (+0.4%) DZ +6.5% SZ +19.8% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JKCEMENT
₹5,000.00
−184.50 (-3.6%)
25-Sep-26
CEMENT · Midcap
YTD -9.6%1Y -26.5%3Y +51.7%5Y +74.9%-33.9% from ATH
Market Cycle
Declining Demand
16dA 5dB 79dC 1d ▶DDeclining Demand 2dE 14% of 52-week range
₹4,672 (52W Low)
₹7,000 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 12 vs PTZ 28Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
Rally Fail 20d ago
DISTRIBUTING 2/4
Evidence
MEDIUM · capped
Evidence 9✓/8✗
⇆ BTZ MIXED (building/wk-3.1)
⚠ 2 conflicts
Weak Money Flow · IQ 19
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
AVWAP✗ -7.7%
Sqz
W↓ 44
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 14% of 52W range (6/10 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (28/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. Medium confidence in this read · Buying pressure mixed — building over the past month, but pulled back last week (-3.1). This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹5,988.50. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bearish — PTZ stronger, watch for breakdown below range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-3.6% · Vol 0.5× · gap -0.4% This week-1.3% · Vol contractingSign of Weakness today Past month-5.2% · vs Nifty -3% (3mo) · 52W range: 14% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 34/150 ✓ Volume Profile Support: High-Volume Node within 3% below current price — institutional memory support. HVNs represent where the most historical volume traded; prior buyers absorbed selling at these levels and will likely do so again. ✓ Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze: BB bandwidth has contracted inside the Keltner Channel — volatility coiling to multi-week lows. Squeezes historically precede sharp directional expansions; in a bullish/neutral regime the resolution bias is to the upside. ✓ Market Structure: confirmed uptrend (HH+HL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Higher Highs and Higher Lows — structural price trend is bullish, supporting long positions. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions.9✓ 8✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
9
RS: Top 36% ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓▲ Accumulation strength growing week-over-week — buy pressure increasing. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Market Structure: confirmed uptrend (HH+HL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Higher Highs and Higher Lows — structural price trend is bullish, supporting long positions. ✓Near 52W Low (14% of range, down 29% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹4985, 0.3% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Volume Profile Support: High-Volume Node within 3% below current price — institutional memory support. HVNs represent where the most historical volume traded; prior buyers absorbed selling at these levels and will likely do so again. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Bollinger/Keltner Squeeze: BB bandwidth has contracted inside the Keltner Channel — volatility coiling to multi-week lows. Squeezes historically precede sharp directional expansions; in a bullish/neutral regime the resolution bias is to the upside. 🌡 Regime ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 44) 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 16% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
8
📊 Price & Structure ✗Relative Strength (lagging): Underperforming Nifty 50 by 19.2% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year low (own-history percentile 10/100). Institutions have been avoiding or distributing this stock — bearish setups on chronic laggards carry higher downside probability. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.67× — sellers committing 1.5× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗EMA200 falling — price -8% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (36w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 41.8x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 34% off ATH ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹4,972.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
45.1%
-0.5σ
-5.5 vs 51% med
±1σ band 39–65%
Weekly delivery ▲
49.7%
-0.8σ
-4.8 vs 55% med
±1σ band 48–65%
Monthly delivery ▼
50.6%
-0.5σ
-5.5 vs 56% med
±1σ band 47–61%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 19 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹5,035.24
Close -0.70% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹18,433
0.73x vs normal
Turnover
0.51x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
45.1%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z -1.5σ
Open Gap: -0.38%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.5x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing. Close -0.7% below VWAP — sellers dominated the session. Bearish intraday structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026
Promoter45.7%→ flat FII16.9% →0.0% DII23.7% →0.0% Public13.8% →0.0% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders9 ↓1↑1 ↓2 +4new −5exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▼ 9 inst. Total holders9 (-1) Increasing stake↑ 1 Decreasing stake↓ 2 New entrants+ 4 Full exits− 5 Unchanged 2 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 19 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹5,035.24
Close -0.70% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹18,433
0.73x vs normal
Turnover
0.51x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
45.1%
z-score -0.4σ
mth z -1.5σ
Open Gap: -0.38%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.5x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing. Close -0.7% below VWAP — sellers dominated the session. Bearish intraday structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹5,000 Base Low ₹4,676
Swing High ₹5,229
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹5,018
₹4,952
₹4,887
38.2% SUPPORT
₹5,018
50% MIDPOINT
₹4,952
61.8% GOLDEN
₹4,887
DEMAND ZONE ₹4,676 -6.5% ₹4,741…₹4,676 SUPPLY ZONE ₹5,988 +19.8% ₹5,892…₹5,988 Critical Level
₹4,676.00(-6.5%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹5,988.50 (+19.8%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹4,676.00 (-6.5%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹5,892…5,988 ₹5,988+19.8% DEMAND ZONE band ₹4,741…4,676 ₹4,676-6.5%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.54 (random walk) · ADX 29 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
12/ 100Bot 23% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: NEUTRAL G6 setup 4 · G3 div 4 · G4 osc 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 Top reasons The last 3 structural swing lows each occurred on progressively lower volume — sellers are losing conviction at support, a classic supply exhaustion pattern Monthly ADX confirms a strong downtrend is in force — exhaustion is more likely from here Bollinger Bands are squeezed tight — a volatility contraction that often precedes a breakout Peak Turn Zone
28
/ 100
Top 1% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▲ +5.6
G1 event 13 · G4 osc 4 · G2_RETEST ZR 4 · G2 zone 3 · RS_PTZ RS 3 · G3 div 2 · G5 inst 1 · G6 setup 1 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons Distribution phase confirmed — the topping sequence is intact This level has been tested and held multiple times — genuine support/resistance, not a one-off bounce This supply zone has already been tested and held
Institutional Quality
19
/ 100
Bot 16% in universe
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
34
/ 150
Bias votes:▲––▲–▼–––2↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Repeated high-volume, price-holds-steady bars recently — buyers/sellers absorbing supply in a cluster, not just once
Valuation
21
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹1,566 219.3% above fair value
Momentum
22
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 22% of 288 Midcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-7.5% below Weekly RSI45 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX29 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.54 — random walk Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.54) RSI 45 ⬇ DX 181d -9.6% Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -0.0% QoQ DII -0.0% QoQ P/E 41.8× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 34% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹41K CrMargin 3v3yr -1.7ppP/E 41.8xP/B 5.5xROE 16%ROCE 15%D/E 0.9xRev 5yr +16%/yrPft 5yr +7%/yrRev QoQ +3.7%Pft QoQ -16.9%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 16% ROCE 15% Sales Growth (QoQ) +4% Debt / Equity 0.88x CFO/EBITDA 62% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 34% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -35% Revenue Growth Level +16%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 35% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +7% Rev 5yr CAGR +16% Margin 3v3yr -1.7pp Debt Trend -0.05x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.00x P/B Ratio 5.5x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
POLYCAB ▼ ₹6,66350%₹10,126 ₹8,408 +0.5% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 23/150 FORMING | Moderate Inst. · 62 Neutral flow FII 19.0% ▲ +0.8% Jun'26 DII 7.6% ▼ -0.3% Jun'26 DII 2(+0) – +2new −2ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 11/100 Expensive DY 0.5% FV ₹1,774 -374% above | 79.0% Fib ₹8,355 (-0.6%) DZ +20.4% SZ +19.0% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
POLYCAB
₹8,408.50
+42.00 (+0.5%)
25-Sep-26
INDUSTRIALS · Largecap · 🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD +10.4%1Y +13.0%3Y +64.1%5Y +495.1%-17.0% from ATH
50% of 52-week range
₹6,663 (52W Low)
₹10,126 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 13✓/7✗
Moderate Inst. · IQ 62
Pattern
Established (4w)
↓ -3% / ↑ +170% · n=2
Rising Ch 26%
Sqz↓
VCP Q2 · Forming
W↓ 46
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (3 spikes)
Cov 20/20
0/5 ACCUM · CONSUMER_ELECTRICALS
Trade & Risk
LU↓
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 50% of 52W range (9/15 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹10,008.00. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.5% · Vol 0.7× · gap +0.3% This week+0.1% · Vol contracting Past month-7.2% · vs Nifty -11% (3mo) · 52W range: 50%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 23/150 ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 43 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+152.323) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✗ Williams %R Overbought: -14 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. ✗ Up/Down vol ratio 0.58× — sellers committing 1.7× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions13✓ 7✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
13
RS: Top 10% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 25.1% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is mid-range vs its own past year (own-history percentile 47/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹8355, 0.6% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 43 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+152.323) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. 🌡 Regime ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (61w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 46) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.8% -> 19.0%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓ROE 23% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 27% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓CFO/EBITDA 81% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
7
📊 Price & Structure ✗Williams %R Overbought: -14 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.58× — sellers committing 1.7× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.57 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗DII selling QoQ (-0.3%) 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 48.0x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗P/E is 1.24x its own 5yr median (39x) — expensive relative to its own trading history
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 17% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹9,085.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
53.3%
+0.5σ
+4.2 vs 49% med
±1σ band 42–57%
Weekly delivery ▲
53.2%
+1.0σ
+3.9 vs 49% med
±1σ band 43–53%
Monthly delivery ▲
51.0%
+0.7σ
+5.1 vs 46% med
±1σ band 39–53%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 62 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹8,398.64
Close +0.12% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹78,786
1.12x vs normal
Turnover
0.88x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
53.3%
z-score +0.5σ
mth z +0.2σ
Open Gap: +0.33%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII selling ↓
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter61.5% →0.0% FII19.0% ↑0.8% DII7.6% ↓0.3% Public11.9% ↓0.4% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders2 →+2new −2exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Sep 2025 → Dec 20252 inst. Total holders2 (+0) New entrants+ 2 Full exits− 2 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 62 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹8,398.64
Close +0.12% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹78,786
1.12x vs normal
Turnover
0.88x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
53.3%
z-score +0.5σ
mth z +0.2σ
Open Gap: +0.33%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹8,408 Base Low ₹8,072
Swing High ₹9,395
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹8,890
₹8,734
₹8,577
38.2% SUPPORT
₹8,890
50% MIDPOINT
₹8,734
61.8% GOLDEN
₹8,577
DEMAND ZONE ₹6,690 -20.4% ₹6,824…₹6,690 SUPPLY ZONE ₹10,008 +19.0% ₹9,880…₹10,008 Critical Level
₹8,072.00(-4.0%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹10,008.00 (+19.0%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹6,690.50 (-20.4%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹9,880…10,008 ₹10,008+19.0% DEMAND ZONE band ₹6,824…6,690 ₹6,690-20.4%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateDown Mid-termDown Long-termUp (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.57 (trending) · ADX 25 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
12/ 100Bot 23% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: NEUTRAL G6 setup 4 · G1 event 3 · G4 osc 3 · SC_BULL SC 2 Top reasons Price is forming a Volatility Contraction Pattern — a series of tightening pullbacks that often precedes a breakout A capitulation-style selling event Monthly MACD has turned bullish Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
10
/ 100
▼ -0.5
G3 div 5 · G4 osc 3 · G5 inst 2 Top reasons On-balance volume has fallen below its own trend average — a sign distribution is underway Monthly ADX confirms a strong uptrend is in force — top exhaustion is more likely from here Money Flow Index or Chaikin Money Flow confirms directional pressure
Institutional Quality
62
/ 100
Top 6% in universe
Moderate Inst.
Coil Energy Score
23
/ 150
Bias votes:––––––▼––0↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Price is showing an early-stage Volatility Contraction Pattern
Valuation
11
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹1,774 374.1% above fair value
Momentum
80
/ 100
Strong Momentum
Top 20% of 146 Largecap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-0.3% below Weekly RSI43 Monthly ADX25 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.57 — trending NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Trending momentum (H=0.57) RSI 43 Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.8% QoQ DII -0.3% QoQ P/E 48.0× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 17% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹1.4L CrMargin 3v3yr +1.7ppP/E 48.0xP/B 10.5xROE 23%ROCE 33%D/E 0.0xRev 5yr +27%/yrPft 5yr +24%/yrRev QoQ -7.4%Pft QoQ +1.4%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 23% ROCE 33% Sales Growth (QoQ) -7% Debt / Equity 0.02x CFO/EBITDA 81% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 17% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -31% Revenue Growth Level +27%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 31% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +24% Rev 5yr CAGR +27% Margin 3v3yr +1.7pp Debt Trend -0.02x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.24x P/B Ratio 10.5x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MAZDOCK ▼ ₹2,05714%₹3,061 ₹2,200 -0.1% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 9%⚠ Circuit 1.8% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 30/150 BUILDING | Weak Money Flow · 30 RC↑ FII 1.7% – -0.0% Jun'26 DII 5.0% – -0.1% Jun'26 DII 1(+0) – | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 11/100 Expensive DY 0.7% FV ₹574 -284% above | 89.0% Fib ₹2,223 (+1.1%) DZ +6.5% SZ +27.8% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position 3×Black Crows | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MAZDOCK
₹2,199.60
−2.40 (-0.1%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY INFRA · Smallcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▼ RS vs Sector -5.8% SOS staleMF REDUCING 5mo · 1f⚠ Conflict
YTD -11.7%1Y -26.3%3Y +142.8%5Y +1863.9%-41.7% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
16dA 1dB 122d ▶CTesting 1dD 113dE 14% of 52-week range
₹2,057 (52W Low)
₹3,061 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
Rally Fail 0d ago
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 14✓/19✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — weakening -2.0
Weak Money Flow · IQ 30
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↑ +37% / ↑ +71% · n=3
AVWAP✗ -21.7%
Falling Ch 39%
Sqz↓
W↓ 41
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (6 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 9% big days
⚠ CIRCUIT RISK · 1.8% sessions
LU↓
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 14% of 52W range (12/27 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹2,339.44. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bearish — PTZ stronger, watch for breakdown below range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.1% · Vol 0.7× This week-3.5% · Vol contractingLPSY today Past month-16.2% · vs Nifty -7% (3mo) · 52W range: 14% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 30/150 ✓ Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓ Williams %R Oversold: -93 (below −80). Williams %R at extreme lower band confirms price is at the low end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of oversold conditions alongside RSI and MACD. ✓ Near 52W Low (14% of range, down 28% from high) ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions.14✓ 19✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
14
★ RC REVERSAL⊙ DUAL DRIFTRS: Top 22% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Near 52W Low (14% of range, down 28% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹2186, 0.6% below) — structural support — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓Williams %R Oversold: -93 (below −80). Williams %R at extreme lower band confirms price is at the low end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of oversold conditions alongside RSI and MACD. ✓RSI 29.6 — deeply oversold ✓MFI 10 — deeply oversold, seller exhaustion ✓Stochastic 8 — deeply oversold; confirms RSI bottom context 🌡 Regime ✓ATR 7th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 41) 📋 Fundamentals ✓ROE 29% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 26% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern ✓Operating margin expanding +8.7pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — within the common range for genuine improvement
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
19
▲ 3×Black Crows (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📊 Price & Structure ✗Three Black Crows pattern on the weekly chart. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 10, CMF -0.27) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. ✗CMF -0.271 — severe selling pressure, not yet turning ✗CLV(5d) -0.39 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.40× — sellers committing 2.5× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 📈 Trend Momentum ✗Momentum Score 17/100 — still lagging vs Smallcap peers, no confirmed relative strength yet 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗EMA200 falling — price -11% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (39w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh ✗MF sector conviction: REDUCING 5 months, 1 funds — diversified funds reducing sector weight (AMFI disclosure) ✗⚠ Catalyst vs MF conflict — manual sector catalyst signal contradicts MF positioning direction; review catalyst rationale before trading 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 36.4x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗P/E is 1.78x its own 5yr median (20x) — expensive relative to its own trading history 💵 Cash-Flow Stage ✗Cash-flow stage: Decline — operating cash outflow, divesting assets 🕯 Pattern ✗Weekly candle: Three Black Crows (bearish — sellers still in control)
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 42% off ATH ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹2,351.10 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
36.0%
+0.5σ
+2.0 vs 34% med
±1σ band 27–39%
Weekly delivery ▼
35.0%
+1.2σ
+6.4 vs 29% med
±1σ band 23–34%
Monthly delivery ▲
31.7%
+1.7σ
+9.3 vs 22% med
±1σ band 17–28%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 30 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹2,197.05
Close +0.12% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹43,612
0.96x vs normal
Turnover
0.68x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
36.0%
z-score +0.4σ
mth z +1.8σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.7x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter81.2%→ flat FII1.7% →0.0% DII5.0% →0.1% Public12.0% →0.1% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →stable
Sector MF: REDUCING · 1 funds · 5mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20261 inst. Total holders1 (+0) Unchanged 1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 30 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹2,197.05
Close +0.12% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹43,612
0.96x vs normal
Turnover
0.68x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
36.0%
z-score +0.4σ
mth z +1.8σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.7x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹2,200 Base Low ₹2,176
Swing High ₹2,589
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹2,431
₹2,382
₹2,334
38.2% SUPPORT
₹2,431
50% MIDPOINT
₹2,382
61.8% GOLDEN
₹2,334
DEMAND ZONE ₹2,057 -6.5% ₹2,107…₹2,057 SUPPLY ZONE ₹2,810 +27.8% ₹2,765…₹2,810 Critical Level
₹2,176.00(-1.1%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹2,339.44 (+6.4%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹2,057.40 (-6.5%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹2,765…2,810 ₹2,810+27.8% DEMAND ZONE band ₹2,107…2,057 ₹2,057-6.5%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.48 (random walk) · ADX 33 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
8/ 100Bot 10% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: COUNTER ↓ G1 event 5 · G3 div 3 · G5 inst 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 · G4 osc 0 · RS RS -4 Top reasons A capitulation-style selling event Strong delivery-based divergence — real investors are buying even though price hasn't turned yet This bar closed in the upper part of its range — buyers were in control by the close Peak Turn Zone
18
/ 100
Top 25% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ +0.0
G1 event 9 · G4 osc 5 · RS_PTZ RS 3 · G3 div 2 · G5 inst 1 · G6 setup 1 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons A resistance-holding rally formed recently — supply stepping in on the rally after weakness bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3) Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm selling pressure
Institutional Quality
30
/ 100
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
30
/ 150
Bias votes:▲––▲–▼▼––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days The trading range is unusually wide — more room for a big move once it resolves Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day
Valuation
11
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹574 283.5% above fair value
Momentum
17
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 17% of 89 Smallcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-11.1% below Weekly RSI30 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX33 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.48 — random walk Weekly candleThree Black Crows NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.48) RSI 30 ⬇ DX 194d -10.9% Three Black Crows: Three consecutive strong red candles, each closing near the low. Sellers are firmly in control — sustained, organised selling pressure. Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -0.0% QoQ DII -0.1% QoQ P/E 36.4× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 42% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹1.0L CrMargin 3v3yr +8.7ppP/E 36.4xP/B 9.1xROE 29%ROCE 36%D/E 0.0xRev 5yr +26%/yrPft 5yr +33%/yrRev QoQ -23.6%Pft QoQ -18.4%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 29% ROCE 36% Sales Growth (QoQ) -24% Debt / Equity 0.05x Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 42% off ATH Max Drawdown (vs Index) -37% Revenue Growth Level +26%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 37% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +33% Rev 5yr CAGR +26% Margin 3v3yr +8.7pp Debt Trend +0.01x Cash-Flow Stage Decline CFO / CFI / CFF − / + / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.78x P/B Ratio 9.1x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBCC ▼ ₹7712%₹126 ₹83 +0.6% | Conflicted ⚡ HiVol 8% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event⚠ UTAD FAILED | 32/150 BUILDING | Weak Money Flow · 22 OBV↑ FII 4.8% ▼ -0.2% Jun'26 DII 11.3% ▲ +0.5% Jun'26 DII 3(+0) – ↓1 | A · Severe Deep past decline — re-rating story | 13/100 Expensive DY 1.1% FV ₹24 -241% above | 79.0% Fib ₹82 (-1.0%) DZ +3.8% SZ +9.2% | CONFLICT BTZ & PTZ both elevated | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBCC
₹82.86
+0.52 (+0.6%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY INFRA · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▼ RS vs Sector -16.8% SOS staleMF REDUCING 5mo · 1f⚠ Conflict
YTD -32.0%1Y -24.5%3Y +61.0%5Y +93.4%-60.5% from ATH
Market Cycle
Downtrend in Progress
16dA 11dB 29dC 20dD 10d ▶EDowntrend 11% of 52-week range
₹77 (52W Low)
₹126 (52W High)
Stage
⚡ CONFLICTED — BTZ 11 vs PTZ 17Bottom and top signals equally active — no actionable direction
★ TURNAROUND · SEVERE
RB RANGEphase: NONE
DISTRIBUTING 2/4
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 15✓/14✗
⇆ BTZ MIXED (decaying/wk+1.9)
⚠ 2 conflicts
Weak Money Flow · IQ 22
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
↓ -19% / ↓ -30% · n=2
AVWAP✗ -16.9%
Sqz↓
W↓ 35
F-Wedge
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (3 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 8% big days
LU↓
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 12% of 52W range (12/22 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has suffered a severe drawdown (55–70%+), qualifying as a turnaround setup — historically 57–65% of setups in this range reached 10x+ over 5–7 years. Watch for: PTZ also elevated (17/100) — mixed/conflicted read, not a clean bottom. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹90.50. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bearish — PTZ stronger, watch for breakdown below range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.6% · Vol 0.8× This week+0.6% · Vol normalSign of Weakness today Past month-7.1% · vs Nifty -18% (3mo) · 52W range: 12%monthly trend bearish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 32/150 ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 40 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓ Fibonacci Support: nearest Fibonacci level is 1.0% below current price (at 82). Price resting just above a Fibonacci retracement is a classic entry zone for trend continuation — institutions reference these levels when placing buy orders. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Money flow is negative (MFI 28, CMF -0.07) — selling pressure is dominant on volume.15✓ 14✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
15
RS: Top 1% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Near 52W Low (12% of range, down 34% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹83, 0.3% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹82, 1.0% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 40 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✓MFI 28 — deeply oversold, seller exhaustion 🌡 Regime ✓ATR 6th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 35) 🏛 Institutional ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.5% -> 11.3%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓ROE 20% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 13% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓CFO/EBITDA 65% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern 🕯 Pattern ✓Fibonacci Support: nearest Fibonacci level is 1.0% below current price (at 82). Price resting just above a Fibonacci retracement is a classic entry zone for trend continuation — institutions reference these levels when placing buy orders.
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
14
⚠ UTAD FAILED · 60d ago ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 28, CMF -0.07) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Monthly MACD (bearish): MACD histogram is negative and the monthly trend is bearish (hist=-3.028) — macro momentum is deteriorating. Institutional sellers are in control at the macro level. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗EMA200 falling — price -14% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (33w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗Monthly Trend (bearish): The monthly EMA-12 is below EMA-26 and close is below EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is down. Long-term structural headwind in force. ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.2% -> 4.8%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh ✗MF sector conviction: REDUCING 5 months, 1 funds — diversified funds reducing sector weight (AMFI disclosure) ✗⚠ Catalyst vs MF conflict — manual sector catalyst signal contradicts MF positioning direction; review catalyst rationale before trading 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 35.4x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗Profit QoQ -38% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Severe decline · 60% off ATH ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹82.40 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
37.1%
-0.1σ
+0.0 vs 37% med
±1σ band 30–45%
Weekly delivery ▲
42.0%
+1.4σ
+8.1 vs 34% med
±1σ band 29–40%
Monthly delivery ▲
39.8%
+2.0σ
+7.3 vs 32% med
±1σ band 29–36%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 22 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹82.42
Close +0.53% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹15,237
0.97x vs normal
Turnover
0.76x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
37.1%
z-score +0.0σ
mth z +2.2σ
Open Gap: -0.13%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.5% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter61.8%→ flat FII4.8% ↓0.2% DII11.3% ↑0.5% Public22.2% ↓0.3% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders3 →↓1
Sector MF: REDUCING · 1 funds · 5mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20263 inst. Total holders3 (+0) Decreasing stake↓ 1 Unchanged 2 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 22 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹82.42
Close +0.53% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹15,237
0.97x vs normal
Turnover
0.76x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
37.1%
z-score +0.0σ
mth z +2.2σ
Open Gap: -0.13%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.5% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹83 Base Low ₹80
Swing High ₹90
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹86
₹85
₹84
38.2% SUPPORT
₹86
50% MIDPOINT
₹85
61.8% GOLDEN
₹84
DEMAND ZONE ₹80 -3.8% ₹81…₹80 SUPPLY ZONE ₹90 +9.2% ₹90…₹90 Critical Level
₹79.72(-3.8%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹90.50 (+9.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹79.72 (-3.8%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹90…90 ₹90+9.2% DEMAND ZONE band ₹81…80 ₹80-3.8%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.55 (random walk) · ADX 34 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
11/ 100Bot 21% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: COUNTER ↓ G3 div 5 · G1 event 5 · G6 setup 3 · SC_BULL SC 2 · RS RS -4 Top reasons A capitulation-style selling event OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Modest delivery-based divergence — real investors are buying even though price hasn't turned yet Peak Turn Zone
17
/ 100
▼ -0.8
G1 event 10 · RS_PTZ RS 3 · G5 inst 1 · G3 div 1 · G4 osc 1 · G6 setup 1 Top reasons Distribution phase confirmed — the topping sequence is intact A buying frenzy peak — exhaustion buying at an elevated level Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm selling pressure
Institutional Quality
22
/ 100
Bot 21% in universe
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
32
/ 150
Bias votes:▲▲–––▼▼––2↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
BUILDING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days
Valuation
13
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹24 241.1% above fair value
Momentum
26
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 26% of 288 Midcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-13.9% below Weekly RSI40 Monthly ADX34 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.55 — random walk NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.55) RSI 40 Long-Term Compounding Case A severely beaten-down quality business. Deep declines like this historically create the strongest long-term recovery opportunities over a 5–7 year horizon. FII -0.2% QoQ DII +0.5% QoQ P/E 35.4× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Severe decline, 60% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹24K CrMargin 3v3yr +2.1ppP/E 35.4xP/B 7.4xROE 20%ROCE 29%D/E 0.0xRev 5yr +13%/yrPft 5yr +20%/yrRev QoQ -50.4%Pft QoQ -37.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 20% ROCE 29% Sales Growth (QoQ) -50% CFO/EBITDA 65% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Severe) Currently Unloved 60% off ATH Max Drawdown (vs Index) -84% Revenue Growth Level +13%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 84% peak-to-trough (Severe) — 57-65% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest, median ultimate multiple 12-16x Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +20% Rev 5yr CAGR +13% Margin 3v3yr +2.1pp Debt Trend -0.00x Cash-Flow Stage Shake-out CFO / CFI / CFF + / + / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.87x P/B Ratio 7.4x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SUZLON ▼ ₹3811%₹62 ₹41 +0.1% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 9%⚠ Circuit 1.7% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 23/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 29 RC↑ FII 24.1% ▲ +0.3% Jun'26 DII 11.1% ▲ +1.9% Jun'26 DII 1(+0) – +1new −1ex | A · Severe Deep past decline — re-rating story | 26/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹18 -130% above | 100.0% Fib ₹42 (+2.4%) DZ +6.4% SZ +49.4% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position 3×Black Crows | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SUZLON
₹40.80
+0.06 (+0.1%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY ENERGY · Largecap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▼ RS vs Sector -24.3% SOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 7f · UNKNOWN
YTD -22.5%1Y -30.9%3Y +416.5%5Y +662.6%-52.6% from ATH
Market Cycle
Downtrend in Progress
16dA 2dB 72dC 1dD 283d ▶EDowntrend 11% of 52-week range
₹38 (52W Low)
₹62 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
★ TURNAROUND · SEVERE
RB RANGEphase: NONE
DISTRIBUTING 2/4
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 15✓/14✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — weakening -6.3
Weak Money Flow · IQ 29
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↑ +2% / ↑ +303% · n=5
AVWAP✗ -28.5%
Sqz↓
W↓ 33
★ FII +0.30pp DII +1.94pp (QoQ)
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (32d)
⚠ Price data (13 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 9% big days
⚠ CIRCUIT RISK · 1.7% sessions
LU↓
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 11% of 52W range (12/22 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has suffered a severe drawdown (55–70%+), qualifying as a turnaround setup — historically 57–65% of setups in this range reached 10x+ over 5–7 years. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹58.39. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.1% · Vol 1.2× This week-5.4% · Vol expandingSign of Weakness today Past month-13.1% · vs Nifty -26% (3mo) · 52W range: 11%mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 23/150 ✓ Williams %R Oversold: -89 (below −80). Williams %R at extreme lower band confirms price is at the low end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of oversold conditions alongside RSI and MACD. ✓ CCI Oversold: -147 (below −100). CCI under −100 places price in the lower 15% of its 20-bar typical-price distribution — statistically oversold and historically associated with mean-reversion bounces. ✓ Market Structure: confirmed uptrend (HH+HL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Higher Highs and Higher Lows — structural price trend is bullish, supporting long positions. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions.15✓ 14✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
15
★ RC REVERSALRS: Top 0% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Market Structure: confirmed uptrend (HH+HL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Higher Highs and Higher Lows — structural price trend is bullish, supporting long positions. ✓Near 52W Low (11% of range, down 34% from high) ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹41, 0.7% below) — structural support — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Williams %R Oversold: -89 (below −80). Williams %R at extreme lower band confirms price is at the low end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of oversold conditions alongside RSI and MACD. ✓CCI Oversold: -147 (below −100). CCI under −100 places price in the lower 15% of its 20-bar typical-price distribution — statistically oversold and historically associated with mean-reversion bounces. ✓RSI 24.4 — deeply oversold ✓Stochastic 10 — deeply oversold; confirms RSI bottom context 🌡 Regime ✓ATR 11th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 33) 🏛 Institutional ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.3% -> 24.1%) ✓DII buying QoQ (+1.9% -> 11.1%) 📋 Fundamentals ✓P/E is 0.76x its own 5yr median (27x) — cheap relative to its own trading history ✓ROE 40% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 38% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.1x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
14
▲ 3×Black Crows (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📊 Price & Structure ✗Three Black Crows pattern on the weekly chart. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 32, CMF -0.23) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. ✗CLV(5d) -0.28 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.41× — sellers committing 2.4× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗EMA200 falling — price -19% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (7w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗Profit QoQ -73% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry ✗CFO/EBITDA 36% — weak cash conversion; earnings quality caution 🕯 Pattern ✗Weekly candle: Three Black Crows (bearish — sellers still in control)
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Severe decline · 53% off ATH ⚠ CLASSIFICATION CONFLICT Cycle state: Early Accumulation (accumulation-biased) vs phase bias: Distribution. The cycle-phase indicator and the temporal stage classifier are disagreeing — this typically occurs mid-transition. Treat the section assignment with caution until one signal confirms the other. ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹45.92 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
40.0%
-0.3σ
-1.8 vs 42% med
±1σ band 36–49%
Weekly delivery ▲
47.7%
+1.6σ
+10.6 vs 37% med
±1σ band 32–44%
Monthly delivery ▲
43.6%
+0.3σ
+0.9 vs 43% med
±1σ band 37–48%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 29 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹40.54
Close +0.64% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹20,994
0.89x vs normal
Turnover
0.99x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
40.0%
z-score -0.3σ
mth z +0.6σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.6% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII buying ↑
Promoter11.7% →0.0% FII24.1% ↑0.3% DII11.1% ↑1.9% Public53.0% ↓2.2% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →+1new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20261 inst. Total holders1 (+0) New entrants+ 1 Full exits− 1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 29 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹40.54
Close +0.64% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹20,994
0.89x vs normal
Turnover
0.99x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
40.0%
z-score -0.3σ
mth z +0.6σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.6% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹41 Base Low ₹42
Swing High ₹60
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹53
₹51
₹49
38.2% SUPPORT
₹53
50% MIDPOINT
₹51
61.8% GOLDEN
₹49
DEMAND ZONE ₹38 -6.4% ₹39…₹38 SUPPLY ZONE ₹61 +49.4% ₹60…₹61 ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹58.39 (+43.1%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹38.19 (-6.4%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹60…61 ₹61+49.4% DEMAND ZONE band ₹39…38 ₹38-6.4%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.54 (random walk) · ADX 39 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
8/ 100Bot 9% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: COUNTER ↓ G1 event 7 · G3 div 2 · G6 setup 2 · G4 osc 0 · RS RS -4 Top reasons A probable panic-selling peak — a large-volume reversal bar consistent with capitulation Modest delivery-based divergence — real investors are buying even though price hasn't turned yet Volume has been drying up progressively inside the base — supply is thinning out Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
12
/ 100
▲ +0.4
G1 event 7 · G2_RETEST ZR 2 · G6 setup 2 · G3 div 2 · G5 inst 1 · G4 osc 1 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons Distribution phase confirmed — the topping sequence is intact ADX confirms a strong directional trend is already in force bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3)
Institutional Quality
29
/ 100
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
23
/ 150
Bias votes:▲––––▼▼––1↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history
Valuation
26
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹18 130.5% above fair value
Momentum
27
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 27% of 146 Largecap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-19.1% below Weekly RSI24 Monthly ADX39 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.54 — random walk Weekly candleThree Black Crows NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.54) RSI 24 ⬇ DX 37d -15.0% Three Black Crows: Three consecutive strong red candles, each closing near the low. Sellers are firmly in control — sustained, organised selling pressure. Long-Term Compounding Case A severely beaten-down quality business. Deep declines like this historically create the strongest long-term recovery opportunities over a 5–7 year horizon. FII +0.3% QoQ DII +1.9% QoQ P/E 20.4× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Severe decline, 53% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹64K CrMargin 3v3yr +2.3ppP/E 20.4xP/B 5.9xROE 40%ROCE 34%D/E 0.1xRev 5yr +38%/yrPft 5yr +45%/yrRev QoQ -30.3%Pft QoQ -72.6%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 40% ROCE 34% Sales Growth (QoQ) -30% Debt / Equity 0.06x CFO/EBITDA 36% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Severe) Currently Unloved 53% off ATH Max Drawdown (vs Index) -91% Revenue Growth Level +38%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 91% peak-to-trough (Severe) — 57-65% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest, median ultimate multiple 12-16x Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +45% Rev 5yr CAGR +38% Margin 3v3yr +2.3pp Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.76x P/B Ratio 5.9x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OBEROIRLTY ▼ ₹1,39179%₹1,986 ₹1,858 +1.1% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 19/150 FORMING | Moderate Inst. · 56 OBV↑ FII 15.1% ▼ -0.3% Jun'26 DII 14.8% ▲ +0.2% Jun'26 DII 3(-1) ▼ ↑1 ↓1 −1ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 38/100 Pricey DY 0.4% FV ₹890 -109% above | 38.0% Fib ₹1,846 (-0.7%) DZ +10.7% SZ +5.5% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position Hammer | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OBEROIRLTY
₹1,858.50
+21.00 (+1.1%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY REALTY · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector -0.2% SOS staleMF NEUTRAL 1mo · 2f
YTD +11.2%1Y +12.1%3Y +65.8%5Y +183.2%-20.7% from ATH
78% of 52-week range
₹1,391 (52W Low)
₹1,986 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 15✓/7✗
Moderate Inst. · IQ 56
Pattern
Established (4w)
↑ +12% / ↑ +14% · n=2
Rising Ch 56%
Sqz↓
W↑ 52
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (2 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 79% of 52W range (11/16 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹1,960.70. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bullish — BTZ stronger, watch for breakout above range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+1.1% · Vol 1.3× This week+4.1% · Vol expanding Past month-0.6% · vs Nifty +10% (3mo) · 52W range: 79%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 19/150 ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 55 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✗ Williams %R Overbought: -12 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. ✗ Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally.15✓ 7✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
15
▲ Hammer (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 87/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Hammer pattern on the weekly chart. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹1829, 1.6% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹1846, 0.7% away) — confluence with technical level 📦 Volume & Flow ✓CMF +0.252 — money flowing in, institutional buying — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 55 (neutral), MACD above signal. 🌡 Regime ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (25w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 52) 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.2% -> 14.8%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 24% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.2x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern ✓Operating margin expanding +8.7pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — within the common range for genuine improvement 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Hammer — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
7
RS: Bottom 30% 📊 Price & Structure ✗Williams %R Overbought: -12 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. ✗Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.3% -> 15.1%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗Profit QoQ -23% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry ✗CFO/EBITDA 37% — weak cash conversion; earnings quality caution
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 21% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹1,721.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹1,695.00 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
40.2%
-0.6σ
-7.6 vs 48% med
±1σ band 35–58%
Weekly delivery ▲
62.5%
+1.8σ
+15.4 vs 47% med
±1σ band 37–55%
Monthly delivery ▲
41.7%
-1.2σ
-6.7 vs 48% med
±1σ band 43–54%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 56 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹1,860.52
Close -0.11% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹38,537
1.41x vs normal
Turnover
1.41x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
40.2%
z-score -0.6σ
mth z -0.3σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter67.7%→ flat FII15.1% ↓0.3% DII14.8% ↑0.2% Public2.4% →0.1% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders3 ↓1↑1 ↓1 −1exit
Sector MF: NEUTRAL · 2 funds · 1mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▼ 3 inst. Total holders3 (-1) Increasing stake↑ 1 Decreasing stake↓ 1 Full exits− 1 Unchanged 1 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 56 · Moderate Inst.
Session VWAP
₹1,860.52
Close -0.11% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹38,537
1.41x vs normal
Turnover
1.41x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
40.2%
z-score -0.6σ
mth z -0.3σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹1,858 Base Low ₹1,660
Swing High ₹1,961
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹1,846
₹1,810
₹1,775
38.2% SUPPORT
₹1,846
50% MIDPOINT
₹1,810
61.8% GOLDEN
₹1,775
DEMAND ZONE ₹1,660 -10.7% ₹1,684…₹1,660 SUPPLY ZONE ₹1,961 +5.5% ₹1,934…₹1,961 Critical Level
₹1,660.00(-10.7%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹1,960.70 (+5.5%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹1,660.00 (-10.7%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹1,934…1,961 ₹1,961+5.5% DEMAND ZONE band ₹1,684…1,660 ₹1,660-10.7%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateDown Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.51 (random walk) · ADX 16 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
12/ 100Bot 24% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: NEUTRAL G1 event 5 · RS_BTZ RS 5 · G4 osc 1 · G6 setup 0 · SC_BULL SC 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events A capitulation-style selling event OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
1
/ 100
Bot 3% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -2.0
G4 osc 3 · G5 inst 1 · RS RS -3 Top reasons Monthly ADX confirms a strong uptrend is in force — top exhaustion is more likely from here Williams %R confirms an extreme reading The options put-call ratio is signaling bearish positioning
Institutional Quality
56
/ 100
Top 13% in universe
Moderate Inst.
Coil Energy Score
19
/ 150
Bias votes:–▲–▼––▼––1↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet This is the narrowest daily range in 7 sessions — classic pre-breakout compression
Valuation
38
/ 100
Slightly Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹890 108.7% above fair value
Momentum
73
/ 100
Above Average
Top 27% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Mixed vs EMA 200+7.2% above Weekly RSI55 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX16 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.51 — random walk Weekly candleHammer NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH No clear momentum (H=0.51) RSI 55 Hammer: Sellers pushed price down sharply but buyers recovered by close — a classic bottom-reversal candle. Look for confirmation next week. Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -0.3% QoQ DII +0.2% QoQ P/E 26.0× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 21% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹69K CrMargin 3v3yr +8.7ppP/E 26.0xP/B 3.8xROE 15%ROCE 17%D/E 0.2xRev 5yr +24%/yrPft 5yr +27%/yrRev QoQ -25.7%Pft QoQ -22.6%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 15% ROCE 17% Sales Growth (QoQ) -26% Debt / Equity 0.16x CFO/EBITDA 37% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 21% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -37% Revenue Growth Level +24%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 37% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +27% Rev 5yr CAGR +24% Margin 3v3yr +8.7pp Debt Trend -0.07x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.01x P/B Ratio 3.8x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IGIL ▼ ₹28742%₹391 ₹331 +1.6% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 6% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 20/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 32 OBV↑ FII 9.5% ▲ +0.9% Jun'26 DII 5.5% ▼ -0.9% Jun'26 DII 1(+0) – +1new −1ex | — | 18/100 Expensive DY 0.7% FV ₹102 -224% above | 62.0% Fib ₹332 (+0.3%) DZ +7.1% SZ +11.9% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IGIL
₹330.55
+5.30 (+1.6%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY INFRA · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▼ RS vs Sector -1.1% SOS staleMF REDUCING 5mo · 1f⚠ Conflict
YTD -1.3%1Y -12.6%-48.5% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
5dA 41dB 6d ▶CTesting 6dD E 41% of 52-week range
₹287 (52W Low)
₹391 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
Rally Fail 17d ago
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 12✓/9✗
⇆ BTZ MIXED (decaying/wk+2.2)
Weak Money Flow · IQ 32
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
AVWAP✗ -2.3%
Rising Ch 29%
W↓ 46
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 6% big days
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 42% of 52W range (8/14 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹369.95. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+1.6% · Vol 1.0× This week-0.1% · Vol normalSign of Weakness 6 sessions ago Past month-5.0% · vs Nifty -2% (3mo) · 52W range: 42% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 20/150 ✓ Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 51 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✗ Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. ✗ Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.3% above current price (at 332). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume.12✓ 9✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
12
RS: Top 37% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹331, 0.0% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Volume Profile Support: High-Volume Node within 3% below current price — institutional memory support. HVNs represent where the most historical volume traded; prior buyers absorbed selling at these levels and will likely do so again. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 51 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓ATR 13th percentile — volatility compression; low-vol accumulation/distribution possible ✓Hurst 0.35 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 46) 🏛 Institutional ✓FII buying QoQ (+0.9% -> 9.5%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓ROE 56% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Debt/Equity 0.1x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓CFO/EBITDA 71% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
9
⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📊 Price & Structure ✗Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.3% above current price (at 332). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. — Confirming indicators 🌡 Regime ✗EMA200 falling — price -4% below, structural downtrend 🏛 Institutional ✗DII selling QoQ (-0.9%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh ✗MF sector conviction: REDUCING 5 months, 1 funds — diversified funds reducing sector weight (AMFI disclosure) ✗⚠ Catalyst vs MF conflict — manual sector catalyst signal contradicts MF positioning direction; review catalyst rationale before trading
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹342.65 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
58.6%
+0.1σ
+0.5 vs 58% med
±1σ band 50–65%
Weekly delivery ▼
50.8%
-0.2σ
-2.1 vs 53% med
±1σ band 44–62%
Monthly delivery ▲
61.9%
+2.3σ
+14.5 vs 47% med
±1σ band 41–53%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 32 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹327.81
Close +0.84% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,679
1.07x vs normal
Turnover
0.98x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
58.6%
z-score +0.1σ
mth z —
Open Gap: +0.25%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.8% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII selling ↓
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter76.5%→ flat FII9.5% ↑0.9% DII5.5% ↓0.9% Public8.4% →0.0% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →+1new −1exit
Sector MF: REDUCING · 1 funds · 5mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20261 inst. Total holders1 (+0) New entrants+ 1 Full exits− 1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 32 · Weak Money Flow
Session VWAP
₹327.81
Close +0.84% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹8,679
1.07x vs normal
Turnover
0.98x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
58.6%
z-score +0.1σ
mth z —
Open Gap: +0.25%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +0.8% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹331 Base Low ₹307
Swing High ₹371
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹347
₹339
₹332
38.2% SUPPORT
₹347
50% MIDPOINT
₹339
61.8% GOLDEN
₹332
DEMAND ZONE ₹307 -7.1% ₹312…₹307 SUPPLY ZONE ₹370 +11.9% ₹364…₹370 Critical Level
₹307.05(-7.1%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹369.95 (+11.9%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹307.05 (-7.1%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹364…370 ₹370+11.9% DEMAND ZONE band ₹312…307 ₹307-7.1%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateDown Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting) · ADX 21 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
9/ 100Bot 14% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: NEUTRAL G3 div 4 · G6 setup 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 · G5 inst 2 Top reasons OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions A Golden Cross (50-day EMA crossing above 200-day) fired recently — a classic long-term trend-confirmation signal Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
11
/ 100
▲ +1.2
G1 event 7 · G2 zone 3 · G2_RETEST ZR 2 · G5 inst 2 · G3 div 1 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons A resistance-holding rally formed recently — supply stepping in on the rally after weakness bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3) Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant
Institutional Quality
32
/ 100
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
20
/ 150
Bias votes:▲▲–––▼–––2↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days
Valuation
18
/ 100
Expensive
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹102 224.1% above fair value
Momentum
31
/ 100
Weak Momentum
Bot 31% of 288 Midcap
WEAK & EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-4.3% below Weekly RSI51 Monthly ADX21 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.35 — mean-reverting NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Mean-reverting (H=0.35) RSI 51 ⬆ GX 76d -11.2% Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII +0.9% QoQ DII -0.9% QoQ P/E 24.6× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹15K CrP/E 24.6xP/B 9.6xROE 56%ROCE 69%D/E 0.1xRev QoQ +0.5%Pft QoQ -7.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 56% ROCE 69% Sales Growth (QoQ) +1% Debt / Equity 0.10x CFO/EBITDA 71% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/B Ratio 9.6x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SBIN ▼ ₹84935%₹1,235 ₹983 +0.5% | Neutral | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event⚠ UTAD FAILED | 17/150 FORMING | Mixed · 49 Neutral flow FII 10.8% ▼ -0.6% Jun'26 DII 26.5% ▲ +0.4% Jun'26 DII 7(+0) – ↑3 ↓1 | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 77/100 Cheap DY 1.6% FV ₹1,134 +13% MoS | 50.0% Fib ₹984 (+0.1%) DZ +4.7% SZ +14.4% | CAUTION Reversal test failed | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SBIN
₹983.00
+4.50 (+0.5%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY BANK · Largecap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector -1.5% SOS stale
YTD +0.1%1Y +15.1%3Y +75.1%5Y +141.7%-20.4% from ATH
Market Cycle
Buying Frenzy Peak
16dA 279d ▶BBuying Frenzy 489dC 20dD 161dE 34% of 52-week range
₹849 (52W Low)
₹1,235 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 11✓/10✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — weakening -6.0
Mixed · IQ 49
Pattern
Established (6w)
↑ +51% / ↑ +52% · n=2
AVWAP✗ -2.1%
Sqz↓
W↓ 45
TF: 1/5
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
LU↓
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 35% of 52W range (7/13 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹1,124.50. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.5% · Vol 0.5× This week-1.3% · Vol contracting Past month-6.6% · vs Nifty -2% (3mo) · 52W range: 35%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 17/150 ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+0.475) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✓ Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 25.5% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the lower half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 36/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 39 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ Money flow is negative (MFI 36, CMF -0.18) — selling pressure is dominant on volume.11✓ 10✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
RS: Top 39% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 25.5% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the lower half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 36/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹968, 1.5% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Volume Profile Support: High-Volume Node within 3% below current price — institutional memory support. HVNs represent where the most historical volume traded; prior buyers absorbed selling at these levels and will likely do so again. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+0.475) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. 🌡 Regime ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (64w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 45) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+0.4% -> 26.5%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓P/E 11.6x — reasonably valued; supports bottom thesis ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 13% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Profit QoQ +22% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
10
⚠ UTAD FAILED · 5d ago ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Money flow is negative (MFI 36, CMF -0.18) — selling pressure is dominant on volume. ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% above current price (at 984). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.55× — sellers committing 1.8× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 39 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.56 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.6% -> 10.8%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 20% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹975.80 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹960.30 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it ⚠ Delivery Signal SuppressedNear ex-dividend date (±3 bars) — delivery SM signal not counted (SM-DIV-1) Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
44.7%
-1.0σ
-8.4 vs 53% med
±1σ band 45–62%
Weekly delivery ▼
57.1%
+1.1σ
+5.3 vs 52% med
±1σ band 48–57%
Monthly delivery ▼
50.1%
-0.4σ
-2.2 vs 52% med
±1σ band 47–57%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 49 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹980.93
Close +0.21% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹36,598
0.70x vs normal
Turnover
0.50x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
44.7%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z -0.3σ
Open Gap: +0.24%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.5x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
Promoter55.5% →0.1% FII10.8% ↓0.6% DII26.5% ↑0.4% Public7.1% ↑0.2% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders7 →↑3 ↓1
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20267 inst. Total holders7 (+0) Increasing stake↑ 3 Decreasing stake↓ 1 Unchanged 3 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 49 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹980.93
Close +0.21% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹36,598
0.70x vs normal
Turnover
0.50x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
44.7%
z-score -1.0σ
mth z -0.3σ
Open Gap: +0.24%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.5x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Testing 50% — midpoint; balance zone between bulls and bears
₹983 Base Low ₹968
Swing High ₹1,001
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹988
₹984
₹981
38.2% SUPPORT
₹988
50% MIDPOINT
₹984
61.8% GOLDEN
₹981
DEMAND ZONE ₹937 -4.7% ₹949…₹937 SUPPLY ZONE ₹1,124 +14.4% ₹1,114…₹1,124 Critical Level
₹968.00(-1.5%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹1,124.50 (+14.4%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹937.20 (-4.7%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹1,114…1,124 ₹1,124+14.4% DEMAND ZONE band ₹949…937 ₹937-4.7%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termUp (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.56 (trending) · ADX 29 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
6/ 100Bot 5% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: NEUTRAL G1 event 5 · G4 osc 3 · SC_BULL SC 2 · RS RS -4 Top reasons A capitulation-style selling event Monthly MACD has turned bullish This bar closed in the upper part of its range — buyers were in control by the close Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
10
/ 100
▲ +0.2
G3 div 4 · G5 inst 3 · G2 zone 3 · G4 osc 2 · G1 event 1 · MTF mtf -3 Top reasons bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3) Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm selling pressure
Institutional Quality
49
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
17
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––––▼▼––0↑ 3↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day
Valuation
77
/ 100
Undervalued
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹1,134 +13.3% margin of safety
Momentum
49
/ 100
Average
Bot 49% of 146 Largecap
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-2.6% below Weekly RSI39 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX29 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.56 — trending NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Trending momentum (H=0.56) RSI 39 Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -0.6% QoQ DII +0.4% QoQ P/E 11.6× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 20% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹9.8L CrP/E 11.6xP/B 1.5xROE 15%ROCE 6%Rev 5yr +13%/yrPft 5yr +30%/yrRev QoQ +3.9%Pft QoQ +22.5%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 15% ROCE 6% Sales Growth (QoQ) +4% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 20% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -44% Revenue Growth Level +13%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 44% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +30% Rev 5yr CAGR +13% Cash-Flow Stage Shake-out CFO / CFI / CFF + / + / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.15x P/B Ratio 1.5x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AIAENG ▼ ₹3,03441%₹5,180 ₹3,919 -0.9% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 16/150 FORMING | Mixed · 54 Neutral flow FII 16.9% – +0.1% Jun'26 DII 22.1% – +0.1% Jun'26 DII 6(+2) ▲ ↓2 +2new | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 28/100 Expensive DY 0.4% FV ₹1,554 -152% above | 89.0% Fib ₹3,904 (-0.4%) DZ +3.6% SZ +24.7% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AIAENG
₹3,919.40
−34.00 (-0.9%)
25-Sep-26
INDUSTRIALS · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD -2.4%1Y +25.0%3Y +6.1%5Y +111.1%-24.3% from ATH
41% of 52-week range
₹3,034 (52W Low)
₹5,180 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
LOW
Evidence 11✓/8✗
⇆ BTZ MIXED (decaying/wk+0.5)
Mixed · IQ 54
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
Sqz↓
W↓ 42
F-Wedge
★ FII +0.08pp DII +0.07pp (QoQ)
Diagnostics
⚠ Data gaps (29d)
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 41% of 52W range (7/13 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹4,885.90. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.9% · Vol 0.3× This week-1.4% · Vol expanding Past month-7.5% · vs Nifty -18% (3mo) · 52W range: 41%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 16/150 ✓ Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓ Approaching a demand (support) zone 3.6% below at ₹3,778.00 — watch for a bounce. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 35 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗ Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang.11✓ 8✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Structural Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
RS: Top 1% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹3844, 1.9% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹3904, 0.4% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 35 (neutral), MACD above signal. 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross (lagging): EMA_50 crossed EMA_200 but the shorter-term EMA stack is not yet aligned. Cross present but not yet structural — monitor. ✓Approaching a demand (support) zone 3.6% below at ₹3,778.00 — watch for a bounce. ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (42w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 42) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. 📋 Fundamentals ✓Debt/Equity 0.0x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern ✓Operating margin expanding +5.3pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — within the common range for genuine improvement
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
8
⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Volume Profile Resistance: High-Volume Node within 3% above current price. Traders who bought at this high-volume zone and are underwater will use any rally into it as a breakeven-exit opportunity — creating a structural ceiling until volume absorbs the overhang. ✗Up/Down vol ratio 0.37× — sellers committing 2.7× more capital than buyers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Hurst 0.58 — trending regime; mean-reversion bottom plays carry lower edge 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 31.4x — elevated due to earnings trough typical of turnaround setups; watch for normalization as earnings recover ✗Profit QoQ -23% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 24% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹3,912.40 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹3,852.30 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
55.1%
+0.2σ
+2.0 vs 53% med
±1σ band 44–63%
Weekly delivery ▼
54.9%
+0.3σ
+2.7 vs 52% med
±1σ band 43–61%
Monthly delivery ▲
46.5%
-1.3σ
-14.7 vs 61% med
±1σ band 50–74%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 54 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹3,918.59
Close +0.02% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹10,642
0.61x vs normal
Turnover
0.32x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
55.1%
z-score +0.2σ
mth z -0.9σ
Open Gap: +0.02%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026
Promoter58.5%→ flat FII16.9% →0.1% DII22.1% →0.1% Public2.5% ↓0.1% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders6 ↑2↓2 +2new
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 6 inst. Total holders6 (+2) Decreasing stake↓ 2 New entrants+ 2 Unchanged 2 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 54 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹3,918.59
Close +0.02% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹10,642
0.61x vs normal
Turnover
0.32x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
55.1%
z-score +0.2σ
mth z -0.9σ
Open Gap: +0.02%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.3x avg) — no conviction in the current direction.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹3,919 Base Low ₹3,778
Swing High ₹4,886
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹4,463
₹4,332
₹4,201
38.2% SUPPORT
₹4,463
50% MIDPOINT
₹4,332
61.8% GOLDEN
₹4,201
DEMAND ZONE ₹3,778 -3.6% ₹3,838…₹3,778 SUPPLY ZONE ₹4,886 +24.7% ₹4,817…₹4,886 Critical Level
₹3,778.00(-3.6%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹4,885.90 (+24.7%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹3,778.00 (-3.6%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹4,817…4,886 ₹4,886+24.7% DEMAND ZONE band ₹3,838…3,778 ₹3,778-3.6%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termUp (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.58 (trending) · ADX 24 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
11/ 100Bot 20% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: COUNTER ↓ G4 osc 3 · G5 inst 3 · G6 setup 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 · G3 div 1 Top reasons Monthly MACD has turned bullish Delivery % has been trending up recently A Golden Cross (50-day EMA crossing above 200-day) fired recently — a classic long-term trend-confirmation signal Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
8
/ 100
Bot 24% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ +0.0
G3 div 5 · G2 zone 3 · G4 osc 2 · G5 inst 2 · RS RS -3 Top reasons Price is near a high-volume node — a level where heavy past trading makes it structurally significant On-balance volume has fallen below its own trend average — a sign distribution is underway Monthly ADX confirms a strong uptrend is in force — top exhaustion is more likely from here
Institutional Quality
54
/ 100
Top 16% in universe
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
16
/ 150
Bias votes:––––––▼––0↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet Repeated high-volume, price-holds-steady bars recently — buyers/sellers absorbing supply in a cluster, not just once Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day
Valuation
28
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹1,554 152.2% above fair value
Momentum
64
/ 100
Above Average
Top 36% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up (flattening)
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-4.9% below Weekly RSI35 Monthly ADX24 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.58 — trending NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Trending momentum (H=0.58) RSI 35 ⬆ GX 210d +5.0% Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII +0.1% QoQ DII +0.1% QoQ P/E 31.4× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 24% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹40K CrMargin 3v3yr +5.3ppP/E 31.4xP/B 4.6xROE 17%ROCE 21%D/E 0.0xRev 5yr +9%/yrPft 5yr +19%/yrRev QoQ -7.7%Pft QoQ -23.4%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 17% ROCE 21% Sales Growth (QoQ) -8% Debt / Equity 0.00x CFO/EBITDA 43% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 24% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -33% Revenue Growth Level +9%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 33% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +19% Rev 5yr CAGR +9% Margin 3v3yr +5.3pp Debt Trend +0.00x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 1.09x P/B Ratio 4.6x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BELRISE ▼ LT OPP ₹14384%₹268 ₹248 +1.8% | LT Accumulation ⚡ HiVol 6% | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 24/150 FORMING | Mixed · 54 Neutral flow FII 12.1% ▲ +2.7% Jun'26 DII 13.1% ▲ +3.1% Jun'26 DII 3(+0) – ↓2 | — | 19/100 Expensive DY 0.2% FV ₹86 -187% above | 24.0% Fib ₹235 (-5.1%) DZ +10.2% SZ +8.2% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BELRISE
₹247.92
+4.29 (+1.8%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY AUTO · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +1.0% SOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 16f
YTD +33.8%1Y +60.6%-7.6% from ATH
83% of 52-week range
₹143 (52W Low)
₹268 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
NONE
Evidence 11✓/6✗
⇆ BTZ MIXED (decaying/wk+0.5)
★ LT Accumulation
Mixed · IQ 54
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (1w)
Rising Ch 44%
Sqz↑
W= 59
★ FII +2.69pp DII +3.12pp (QoQ)
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 6% big days
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 84% of 52W range (7/11 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹268.20. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+1.8% · Vol 1.0× · gap +0.6% This week+3.2% · Vol normal Past month+8.0% · vs Nifty +7% (3mo) · 52W range: 84%mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 24/150 · long-term accumulation window open ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Money flow is positive (MFI 64, CMF +0.10) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✗ Williams %R Overbought: -11 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. ✗ CCI Overbought: 131 (above +100). CCI over +100 places price in the upper 15% of its 20-bar typical-price distribution — statistically overbought and susceptible to pullback or consolidation.11✓ 6✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 75.8% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the lower half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 25/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Money flow is positive (MFI 64, CMF +0.10) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✓CMF +0.096 — money flowing in, institutional buying ✓Up/Down vol ratio 1.95× — buyers committing 1.9× more capital than sellers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓TTM Squeeze firing ↑ 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓Hurst 0.34 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓FII buying QoQ (+2.7% -> 12.1%) ✓DII buying QoQ (+3.1% -> 13.1%) 📋 Fundamentals ✓Debt/Equity 0.3x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
6
RS: Bottom 35% ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📊 Price & Structure ✗Williams %R Overbought: -11 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. ✗CCI Overbought: 131 (above +100). CCI over +100 places price in the upper 15% of its 20-bar typical-price distribution — statistically overbought and susceptible to pullback or consolidation. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Stochastic 87 — overbought, elevated distribution risk 🏛 Institutional ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 43.8x — elevated valuation; limited margin of safety at bottom
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LT OPPORTUNITYEARLYSporadic (26%) Turn ZoneGolden CrossHH+HL Trend ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹228.40 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹212.52 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
51.7%
+0.5σ
+3.8 vs 48% med
±1σ band 39–56%
Weekly delivery ▼
53.3%
+1.3σ
+10.7 vs 43% med
±1σ band 35–51%
Monthly delivery ▲
46.7%
+1.4σ
+8.3 vs 38% med
±1σ band 33–44%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 54 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹247.19
Close +0.30% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹19,671
1.13x vs normal
Turnover
0.98x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
51.7%
z-score +0.4σ
mth z —
Open Gap: +0.56%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Jul 2026 → Jun 2026FII buying ↑ · DII buying ↑
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter61.1% ↓5.3% FII12.1% ↑2.7% DII13.1% ↑3.1% Public13.6% ↓0.5% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders3 →↓2
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20263 inst. Total holders3 (+0) Decreasing stake↓ 2 Unchanged 1 Net Distribution — more institutions reducing than adding(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 54 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹247.19
Close +0.30% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹19,671
1.13x vs normal
Turnover
0.98x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
51.7%
z-score +0.4σ
mth z —
Open Gap: +0.56%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹248 Base Low ₹223
Swing High ₹239
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹233
₹231
₹229
38.2% SUPPORT
₹233
50% MIDPOINT
₹231
61.8% GOLDEN
₹229
DEMAND ZONE ₹223 -10.2% ₹226…₹223 SUPPLY ZONE ₹268 +8.2% ₹264…₹268 Critical Level
₹222.75(-10.2%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹268.20 (+8.2%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹222.75 (-10.2%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹264…268 ₹268+8.2% DEMAND ZONE band ₹226…223 ₹223-10.2%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting) · ADX 16 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
2/ 100Bot 3% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) G4 osc 2 · G6 setup 0 · G5 inst 0 Top reasons The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired bullish — the compression is releasing Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm buying pressure Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
4
/ 100
Bot 7% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ +0.0
G3 div 4 · G4 osc 0 Top reasons deliv_at_highs_rising: 3 swing highs on rising delivery (+3, w52=84%) Stochastic is overbought and turning down deliv_div_bear ClassB (+0.7, rm=0.49, tv=1.00)
Institutional Quality
54
/ 100
Top 18% in universe
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
24
/ 150
Bias votes:––––––▲––1↑ 0↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history Volatility is actively tightening further, right now Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day
Valuation
19
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹86 186.7% above fair value
Momentum
84
/ 100
Strong Momentum
Top 16% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+19.5% above Weekly RSI62 Monthly ADX16 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.34 — mean-reverting NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH Mean-reverting (H=0.34) RSI 62 ⬆ GX 131d +42.0% Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII +2.7% QoQ DII +3.1% QoQ PROM ↓ -5.3% P/E 43.8× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹22K CrP/E 43.8xP/B 4.2xROE 13%ROCE 14%D/E 0.3xRev QoQ -0.3%Pft QoQ -6.2%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 13% ROCE 14% Sales Growth (QoQ) -0% Debt / Equity 0.29x CFO/EBITDA 57% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Cash-Flow Stage Growth CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / + Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/B Ratio 4.2x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MANAPPURAM ▼ ₹24565%₹382 ₹334 +2.8% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 6% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 24/150 FORMING | Mixed · 49 Neutral flow FII 22.3% ▼ -0.9% Jun'26 DII 14.8% ▲ +1.9% Jun'26 DII 3(+1) ▲ ↑1 +2new −1ex | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | 50/100 Fair DY 0.5% FV ₹232 -44% above | 62.0% Fib ₹334 (-0.0%) DZ +7.2% SZ +11.5% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MANAPPURAM
₹334.00
+9.05 (+2.8%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY FIN SERVICE · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +12.2% SOS staleMF BUILDING 5mo · 18f
YTD +8.2%1Y +14.3%3Y +116.0%5Y +111.0%-12.5% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
4dA 7dB 283d ▶CTesting 1dD 171dE 65% of 52-week range
₹245 (52W Low)
₹382 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
△ TURNAROUND · MOD
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
NONE
Evidence 13✓/8✗
Mixed · IQ 49
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
↑ +27% / ↑ +11% · n=3
AVWAP↑ +12.2%
Sqz↓
W↓ 49
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (6 spikes)
Cov 20/20
Index: Consolidation
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 6% big days
F&O BAN
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 65% of 52W range (9/15 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has experienced a significant correction (30–55%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a meaningful drawdown that creates turnaround potential. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹372.55. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+2.8% · Vol 1.1× This week+4.7% · Vol normal Past month-8.6% · vs Nifty +10% (3mo) · 52W range: 65%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) · mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 24/150 ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 52 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+5.241) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. ✗ Williams %R Overbought: -4 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. ✗ Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally.13✓ 8✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
13
📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 24.8% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is in the lower half of its 1-year range (own-history percentile 21/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price just above prior swing low (₹336, 0.7% away) — watching for break vs hold ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹334, 0.0% away) — confluence with technical level 📦 Volume & Flow ✓CMF +0.086 — money flowing in, institutional buying ✓CLV(5d) +0.34 — buyers closing in upper range consistently, bar-level absorption — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 52 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓Monthly MACD (bullish): MACD histogram is positive on the monthly chart (hist=+5.241) — macro momentum is building upward. Institutional buying is accelerating at the macro level. 🌡 Regime ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (64w ago) — trend intact ✓Hurst 0.42 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 49) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+1.9% -> 14.8%) 📋 Fundamentals ✓Profit QoQ +44% — earnings recovering; supports bottom thesis
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
8
RS: Bottom 30% 📊 Price & Structure ✗Williams %R Overbought: -4 (above −20). Williams %R at the extreme upper band confirms price is at the high end of its 14-bar range — secondary oscillator confirmation of overbought conditions. ✗Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.9% -> 22.3%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh ✗F&O ban period active 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E is 3.31x its own 5yr median (7x) — expensive relative to its own trading history ✗ROE 7% — low returns; quality concern at bottom
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Moderate decline · 12% off ATH ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹357.30 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
38.8%
-0.3σ
-1.8 vs 41% med
±1σ band 33–49%
Weekly delivery ▲
47.1%
+1.1σ
+6.0 vs 41% med
±1σ band 36–46%
Monthly delivery ▲
42.7%
+0.5σ
+3.0 vs 40% med
±1σ band 33–46%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 49 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹329.83
Close +1.26% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹37,399
1.09x vs normal
Turnover
1.20x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
38.8%
z-score -0.3σ
mth z +0.6σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +1.3% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
Promoter41.7% ↑9.9% FII22.3% ↓0.9% DII14.8% ↑1.9% Public21.2% ↓10.8% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders3 ↑1↑1 +2new −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▲ 3 inst. Total holders3 (+1) Increasing stake↑ 1 New entrants+ 2 Full exits− 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 49 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹329.83
Close +1.26% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹37,399
1.09x vs normal
Turnover
1.20x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
38.8%
z-score -0.3σ
mth z +0.6σ
Open Gap: —
◆ Neutral / mixed
Close +1.3% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹334 Base Low ₹310
Swing High ₹373
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹349
₹341
₹334
38.2% SUPPORT
₹349
50% MIDPOINT
₹341
61.8% GOLDEN
₹334
DEMAND ZONE ₹310 -7.2% ₹315…₹310 SUPPLY ZONE ₹373 +11.5% ₹367…₹373 Critical Level
₹310.00(-7.2%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹372.55 (+11.5%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹310.00 (-7.2%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹367…373 ₹373+11.5% DEMAND ZONE band ₹315…310 ₹310-7.2%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateDown Mid-termDown Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.42 (mean-reverting) · ADX 28 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
10/ 100Bot 16% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: COUNTER ↓ G1 event 5 · G4 osc 2 · ZONE_TEST ZT 2 · G6 setup 2 · SC_BULL SC 2 · G5 inst 1 · RS RS -4 Top reasons A capitulation-style selling event Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Monthly MACD has turned bullish Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
10
/ 100
▼ -5.6
G4 osc 3 · RS_PTZ RS 3 · G1 event 2 · G5 inst 2 Top reasons This stock has been a chronic laggard versus Nifty — added weight to the distribution case Monthly ADX confirms a strong uptrend is in force — top exhaustion is more likely from here A resistance-holding rally formed recently — supply stepping in on the rally after weakness
Institutional Quality
49
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
24
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––––▼▼––0↑ 3↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility is actively tightening further, right now Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet
Valuation
50
/ 100
Fair Value
SWEET SPOT
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹232 43.7% above fair value
Momentum
68
/ 100
Above Average
Top 32% of 288 Midcap
SWEET SPOT
EMA Trend Regime
↔
Mixed
Mid: Down
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200+7.1% above Weekly RSI52 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX28 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.42 — mean-reverting NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend NEUTRAL Mean-reverting (H=0.42) RSI 52 Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down quality business. This level of derating has historically offered good long-term risk-reward for patient investors. FII -0.9% QoQ DII +1.9% QoQ PROM ↑ +9.9% P/E 23.8× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: A-Turnaround (Moderate decline, 12% off ATH) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹35K CrP/E 23.8xP/B 1.9xROE 7%ROCE 8%Rev 5yr +8%/yrPft 5yr -10%/yrRev QoQ +16.1%Pft QoQ +44.4%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 7% ROCE 8% Sales Growth (QoQ) +16% Preconditions Archetype A-Turnaround (Moderate) Currently Unloved 12% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -51% Revenue Growth Level +8%/yr Structural Tailwind Not assessed Real prior derating: 51% peak-to-trough (Moderate) — 27-47% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR -10% Rev 5yr CAGR +8% Cash-Flow Stage Startup CFO / CFI / CFF − / − / + Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 3.31x P/B Ratio 1.9x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IKS ▼ LT OPP · ~8M ago ₹1,26278%₹1,970 ₹1,816 -2.8% | LT Accumulation ⚡ HiVol 5% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 19/150 FORMING | Mixed · 50 Neutral flow FII 8.0% ▼ -0.2% Jun'26 DII 7.5% ▲ +1.1% Jun'26 DII 1 – | — | 9/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹371 -390% above | 24.0% Fib ₹1,817 (+0.1%) DZ +5.7% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IKS
₹1,815.80
−52.50 (-2.8%)
25-Sep-26
HEALTHCARE · Midcap · 🟡 Partial RotationSOS staleMF BUILDING 1mo · 13f
YTD +9.5%1Y +17.8%-17.0% from ATH
Market Cycle
Building the Base
16dA 1d ▶BBuilding Base 3dC 3dD E 78% of 52-week range
₹1,262 (52W Low)
₹1,970 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
⚠ Aged SC
Breakout 59d ago · Pullback Hold 9d ago · MODERATE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
NONE
Evidence 11✓/8✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — aging clock -1.9
★ LT Accumulation
Mixed · IQ 50
Pattern
Established (4w)
⚡ BOS (2b ago) · SS 3/5
AVWAP ✓ +11.6%
AVWAP↑ +11.1%
Rising Ch 72%
Sqz
W= 54
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 5% big days
Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 78% of 52W range (7/13 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Breaks down below ₹1,712.70. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bullish — BTZ stronger, watch for breakout above range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-2.8% · Vol 1.0× This week+2.0% · Vol expandingLast Point of Support 9 sessions ago Past month+4.3% · vs Nifty +11% (3mo) · 52W range: 78%mutual funds accumulating the sector Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 19/150 · Last Point of Support 9 sessions ago · long-term accumulation window open ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 52 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗ Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% above current price (at 1817). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume.11✓ 8✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
11
⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested 10× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹1805, 0.6% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Money flow is positive (MFI 73, CMF +0.05) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✓Up/Down vol ratio 2.24× — buyers committing 2.2× more capital than sellers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 52 (neutral), MACD above signal. 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (37w ago) — trend intact 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+1.1% -> 7.5%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓ROE 40% — high-quality business; bottom entry justified ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 42% — growing business; supports accumulation
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
8
RS: Bottom 28% ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% above current price (at 1817). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗MFI 73 — overbought, distribution setup likely 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.2% -> 8.0%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 38.9x — elevated valuation; limited margin of safety at bottom ✗Operating margin contracting -7.3pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — profitability weakening
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LT OPPORTUNITYEARLYSC · ~8M agoSporadic (44%) Turn ZoneGolden CrossHH+HL Trend ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹1,721.00 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹1,721.00 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
48.8%
-0.3σ
-1.5 vs 50% med
±1σ band 42–60%
Weekly delivery ▲
65.7%
+1.6σ
+14.0 vs 52% med
±1σ band 41–60%
Monthly delivery ▲
52.8%
+0.6σ
+2.7 vs 50% med
±1σ band 42–56%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 50 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹1,820.91
Close -0.28% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹13,779
0.74x vs normal
Turnover
0.93x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.8%
z-score -0.2σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.06%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter63.7%→ flat FII8.0% ↓0.2% DII7.5% ↑1.1% Public18.6% ↓0.8% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders1 →stable
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Jun 20261 inst. Total holders1 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 50 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹1,820.91
Close -0.28% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹13,779
0.74x vs normal
Turnover
0.93x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
48.8%
z-score -0.2σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.06%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Activity data present. No extreme readings in latest session.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹1,816 Base Low ₹1,713
Swing High ₹1,849
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹1,797
₹1,781
₹1,765
38.2% SUPPORT
₹1,797
50% MIDPOINT
₹1,781
61.8% GOLDEN
₹1,765
DEMAND ZONE ₹1,713 -5.7% ₹1,739…₹1,713 SUPPLY ZONE No zone identifiedCritical Level
₹1,712.70(-5.7%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹1,712.70 (-5.7%) SUPPLY ZONEINSIDE ₹1,817+0.1% DEMAND ZONE band ₹1,739…1,713 ₹1,713-5.7%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateUp Mid-termUp Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.54 (random walk) · ADX 16 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
8/ 100Bot 10% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) RS_BTZ RS 5 · G6 setup 1 · G1 event 1 · G5 inst 0 · SC_BULL SC 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm buying pressure Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
1
/ 100
Bot 2% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -13.8
G3 div 3 · G1 event 1 · RS RS -3 Top reasons deliv_div_bear ClassA (+2.9, rm=0.95, tv=1.00) A buying frenzy peak — exhaustion buying at an elevated level close_position=0.27≤0.30 seller_dominated_close (+0.2)
Institutional Quality
50
/ 100
Top 25% in universe
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
19
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––––––––0↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day OBV's underlying trend is turning up even though price is still flat or falling — an early, quiet accumulation signal
Valuation
9
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹371 389.5% above fair value
Momentum
77
/ 100
Above Average
Top 23% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+7.2% above Weekly RSI52 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX16 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.54 — random walk Bollinger BandsSqueeze forming NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH No clear momentum (H=0.54) RSI 52 ⬆ GX 186d +3.8% Vol & Turn Zone ▸SC: 3.4× vol · AR: 0.9× — weak Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII -0.2% QoQ DII +1.1% QoQ P/E 38.9× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹30K CrMargin 3v3yr -7.3ppP/E 38.9xP/B 13.9xROE 40%ROCE 37%D/E 0.3xRev 5yr +42%/yrPft 5yr +34%/yrRev QoQ +4.2%Pft QoQ -5.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 40% ROCE 37% Sales Growth (QoQ) +4% Debt / Equity 0.34x CFO/EBITDA 53% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +34% Rev 5yr CAGR +42% Margin 3v3yr -7.3pp Debt Trend +0.54x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.93x P/B Ratio 13.9x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JYOTICNC ▼ ₹58087%₹1,135 ₹1,065 -0.7% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 10% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event⚠ SPRING FAILED | 17/150 FORMING | Mixed · 51 Neutral flow FII 6.3% ▼ -2.7% Jun'26 DII 12.6% ▼ -1.1% Jun'26 DII 4(-1) ▼ ↑3 ↓1 −1ex | — | 4/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹174 -512% above | 24.0% Fib ₹1,028 (-3.5%) DZ +12.8% SZ +24.9% | CAUTION Reversal test failed Morning Star | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JYOTICNC
₹1,065.10
−7.45 (-0.7%)
25-Sep-26
INDUSTRIALS · Midcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD +7.7%1Y +13.3%-29.2% from ATH
Market Cycle
Demand Taking Over
16dA 135dB 6dC 6d ▶DUptrend 26dE 87% of 52-week range
₹580 (52W Low)
₹1,135 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
⚠ Aged SC
Pullback Hold 6d ago · MODERATE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
NONE
Evidence 14✓/8✗
Mixed · IQ 51
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (3w)
⚡ BOS (4b ago) · SS 2/5
AVWAP ✓ +29.2%
AVWAP↑ +19.8%
Sqz↑
W↑ 68
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 10% big days
Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 87% of 52W range (10/17 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹1,330.00. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.7% · Vol 0.6× This week+1.5% · Vol expandingLast Point of Support 6 sessions ago Past month+5.2% · vs Nifty +40% (3mo) · 52W range: 87% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 17/150 · Last Point of Support 6 sessions ago ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Mildly bullish signals — RSI 60 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✗ Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗ 52W range 87% — near annual highs, distribution risk14✓ 8✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
14
▲ Morning Star (pattern) ⚡ Cycle Stage ✓SC-low tested 10× during Phase B without breaking — multi-confirmed support floor 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹1055, 1.0% below) — structural support 📦 Volume & Flow ✓Money flow is positive (MFI 68, CMF +0.19) — institutions appear to be buying on volume. ✓CMF +0.192 — money flowing in, institutional buying ✓Up/Down vol ratio 2.36× — buyers committing 2.4× more capital than sellers over 20 sessions — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Mildly bullish signals — RSI 60 (neutral), MACD above signal. ✓TTM Squeeze firing ↑ 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (4w ago) — trend intact ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 68) 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 32% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern 🕯 Pattern ✓Weekly candle: Morning Star — bullish reversal pattern
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
8
RS: Bottom 2% ⚠⚠ SPRING FAILED · 35d ago 📊 Price & Structure ✗52W range 87% — near annual highs, distribution risk — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-2.7% -> 6.3%) ✗DII selling QoQ (-1.1%) 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 69.7x — expensive even at current price; falling knife risk ✗Profit QoQ -37% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry ✗CFO/EBITDA 9% — weak cash conversion; earnings quality caution ✗Operating margin up +17.1pp — unusually large for a 3yr window, check for a cyclical/commodity driver before trusting it as durable
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LT WAS ACTIVE · SC THIS YEARSC · ~1.1Y agoFresh (1%) Turn ZoneGolden Cross ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹822.40 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▲
54.1%
+1.5σ
+12.2 vs 42% med
±1σ band 34–50%
Weekly delivery ▼
35.0%
-0.7σ
-7.0 vs 42% med
±1σ band 33–48%
Monthly delivery ▼
37.0%
-0.3σ
-3.6 vs 41% med
±1σ band 28–55%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 51 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹1,067.71
Close -0.24% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹27,770
1.16x vs normal
Turnover
0.64x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
54.1%
z-score +1.5σ
mth z —
Open Gap: —
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.6x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII selling ↓
★ OWNERSHIP SCREEN PASSPromoter-high / institutional-low, all 8 filters met, pledge clean
Promoter62.5%→ flat FII6.3% ↓2.7% DII12.6% ↓1.1% Public18.6% ↑3.8% Pledge0.2% +0.1% DII Holders4 ↓1↑3 ↓1 −1exit
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 2026▼ 4 inst. Total holders4 (-1) Increasing stake↑ 3 Decreasing stake↓ 1 Full exits− 1 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 51 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹1,067.71
Close -0.24% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹27,770
1.16x vs normal
Turnover
0.64x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
54.1%
z-score +1.5σ
mth z —
Open Gap: —
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.6x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹1,065 Base Low ₹929
Swing High ₹1,059
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹1,009
₹994
₹978
38.2% SUPPORT
₹1,009
50% MIDPOINT
₹994
61.8% GOLDEN
₹978
DEMAND ZONE ₹929 -12.8% ₹948…₹929 SUPPLY ZONE ₹1,330 +24.9% ₹1,305…₹1,330 Critical Level
₹928.60(-12.8%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — also your demand-zone floor — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹1,330.00 (+24.9%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹928.60 (-12.8%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹1,305…1,330 ₹1,330+24.9% DEMAND ZONE band ₹948…929 ₹929-12.8%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.49 (random walk) · ADX 33 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
5/ 100Bot 4% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: ALIGNED ↑ (1w) RS_BTZ RS 5 · G5 inst 1 · G1 event 0 Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is weak — a discount applied to the evidence above because weak-RS stocks near-coinflip at climax events The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired bullish — the compression is releasing Money Flow Index and Chaikin Money Flow both confirm buying pressure Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
4
/ 100
Bot 7% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -13.4
G3 div 6 · G6 setup 1 · G1 event 0 · RS RS -3 Top reasons deliv_div_bear ClassA (+2.7, rm=0.91, tv=1.00) Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history A buying frenzy peak — exhaustion buying at an elevated level
Institutional Quality
51
/ 100
Top 23% in universe
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
17
/ 150
Bias votes:▼–––––▲––1↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet This is the narrowest daily range in 7 sessions — classic pre-breakout compression
Valuation
4
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹174 512.3% above fair value
Momentum
68
/ 100
Above Average
Top 32% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+23.0% above Weekly RSI60 Monthly ADX33 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.49 — random walk Weekly candleMorning Star NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH No clear momentum (H=0.49) RSI 60 ⬆ GX 21d +5.2% Morning Star: Three-candle bottom reversal: strong red, small indecision, then strong green. One of the most reliable candlestick reversal patterns. Vol & Turn Zone ▸SC: 2.3× vol · AR: 0.7× — weak Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII -2.7% QoQ DII -1.1% QoQ P/E 69.7× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹22K CrMargin 3v3yr +17.1pp ⚠P/E 69.7xP/B 12.1xROE 18%ROCE 21%D/E 0.4xRev 5yr +32%/yrPft 5yr +45%/yrRev QoQ -15.2%Pft QoQ -37.4%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 18% ROCE 21% Sales Growth (QoQ) -15% Debt / Equity 0.43x CFO/EBITDA 9% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +45% Rev 5yr CAGR +32% Margin 3v3yr +17.1pp ⚠ Debt Trend -11.79x Cash-Flow Stage Shake-out CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / + Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/E vs Own 5yr Med 0.90x P/B Ratio 12.1x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
THELEELA ▼ ₹38481%₹583 ₹546 +2.4% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 14/150 FORMING | Mixed · 38 Neutral flow FII 7.9% ▼ -0.8% Jun'26 DII 11.5% ▲ +1.0% Jun'26 DII 4(+0) – ↑1 ↓1 | — | 29/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹240 -128% above | 62.0% Fib ₹549 (+0.5%) DZ +15.6% SZ +6.7% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
THELEELA
₹546.15
+12.95 (+2.4%)
25-Sep-26
HOSPITALITY · Midcap
YTD +26.0%1Y +29.0%-6.3% from ATH
81% of 52-week range
₹384 (52W Low)
₹583 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
NONE
Evidence 9✓/7✗
Mixed · IQ 38
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
Rising Ch 71%
W= 65
Diagnostics
Cov 20/20
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 81% of 52W range (5/9 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹582.85. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (leaning bearish — PTZ stronger, watch for breakdown below range). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+2.4% · Vol 0.4× · gap -1.5% This week+1.0% · Vol contracting Past month-1.2% · vs Nifty +18% (3mo) · 52W range: 81% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 14/150 ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Gap Down in Uptrend: Price gapped down 1.5% at open but the long-term trend (rising 200 EMA) remains intact — this may be an entry opportunity if the gap fills during the session. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 54 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top.9✓ 7✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
9
⚡ Cycle Stage ✓Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 90/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. — Confirming indicators 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓Gap Down in Uptrend: Price gapped down 1.5% at open but the long-term trend (rising 200 EMA) remains intact — this may be an entry opportunity if the gap fills during the session. ✓Above EMA200 / Golden Cross (14w ago) — trend intact ✓Hurst 0.42 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+1.0% -> 11.5%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Debt/Equity 0.3x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓CFO/EBITDA 88% — strong cash conversion; earnings are real, not just accounting profit
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
7
RS: Bottom 17% ⚠ 📦 Volume & Flow ✗Fibonacci Resistance: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.5% above current price (at 549). Price approaching a Fibonacci extension or retracement from below attracts institutional supply — the level acts as a distribution zone until broken with volume. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 54 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗MACD histogram div (bear) (26d ago) — momentum diverging bearishly, caution on bounces 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-0.8% -> 7.9%) 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 41.1x — elevated valuation; limited margin of safety at bottom ✗Profit QoQ -72% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint ▲ Institutional Entry LevelPrice near institutional support ₹538.55 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended ▲▲ Repeatedly Defended Level₹406.70 — 2+ separate high-delivery sessions bottomed within 3% of this level, and price still holds above it ⚠ Delivery Signal SuppressedNear ex-dividend date (±3 bars) — delivery SM signal not counted (SM-DIV-1) Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
59.5%
+0.5σ
+6.5 vs 53% med
±1σ band 41–65%
Weekly delivery ▼
50.9%
-0.5σ
-5.8 vs 57% med
±1σ band 45–69%
Monthly delivery ▼
56.0%
-0.3σ
-4.3 vs 60% med
±1σ band 51–67%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 38 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹541.34
Close +0.89% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹5,769
0.70x vs normal
Turnover
0.45x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
59.5%
z-score +0.5σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -1.54%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction. Close +0.9% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
Promoter75.9%→ flat FII7.9% ↓0.8% DII11.5% ↑1.0% Public4.7% ↓0.2% Pledge0.7% +0.7%↑ DII Holders4 →↑1 ↓1
■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20264 inst. Total holders4 (+0) Increasing stake↑ 1 Decreasing stake↓ 1 Unchanged 2 Mixed — no clear institutional direction(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 1%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 38 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹541.34
Close +0.89% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹5,769
0.70x vs normal
Turnover
0.45x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
59.5%
z-score +0.5σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -1.54%
◆ Neutral / mixed
Volume contracting (0.4x avg) — no conviction in the current direction. Close +0.9% above VWAP — buyers were in control throughout the session. Bullish session structure.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹546 Base Low ₹528
Swing High ₹583
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹562
₹555
₹549
38.2% SUPPORT
₹562
50% MIDPOINT
₹555
61.8% GOLDEN
₹549
DEMAND ZONE ₹461 -15.6% ₹470…₹461 SUPPLY ZONE ₹583 +6.7% ₹573…₹583 Critical Level
₹513.15(-6.0%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹582.85 (+6.7%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹461.05 (-15.6%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹573…583 ₹583+6.7% DEMAND ZONE band ₹470…461 ₹461-15.6%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp (weakening) Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.42 (mean-reverting) · ADX 25 (weak/no trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
0/ 100Bot 2% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: NEUTRAL G6 setup 1 · G5 inst 0 · SC_BULL SC 0 Top reasons Delivery % has been trending up recently The base is narrow or volume is drying up inside it A Golden Cross (50-day EMA crossing above 200-day) fired recently — a classic long-term trend-confirmation signal Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
7
/ 100
Bot 18% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -1.4
G3 div 5 · G6 setup 2 Top reasons ADX is easing off an uptrend — momentum is cooling, a caution flag near a top MACD is diverging bearishly from price — momentum is quietly weakening beneath the surface deliv_div_bear ClassB (+0.8, rm=0.66, tv=0.86)
Institutional Quality
38
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
14
/ 150
Bias votes:–––▲–––––1↑ 0↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility is actively tightening further, right now Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Multiple compression signals are confirming together
Valuation
29
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹240 128.0% above fair value
Momentum
82
/ 100
Strong Momentum
Top 18% of 288 Midcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up (weakening)
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+16.0% above Weekly RSI54 Monthly ADX25 — weak trend Hurst exponent0.42 — mean-reverting NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH Mean-reverting (H=0.42) RSI 54 ⬆ GX 69d +19.4% MACD Div ▼ (26d ago) Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII -0.8% QoQ DII +1.0% QoQ P/E 41.1× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹18K CrP/E 41.1xP/B 2.8xROE 8%ROCE 9%D/E 0.3xRev QoQ -27.3%Pft QoQ -71.5%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 8% ROCE 9% Sales Growth (QoQ) -27% Debt / Equity 0.28x CFO/EBITDA 88% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/B Ratio 2.8x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 1% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SAILIFE ▼ LT OPP ₹78489%₹1,697 ₹1,592 -0.2% | LT Accumulation ⚡ HiVol 5% | Consolidation Distribution — Smart money exiting RangeNo event | 9/150 FORMING | Mixed · 45 Neutral flow FII 19.6% ▼ -1.5% Jun'26 DII 32.7% ▲ +1.2% Jun'26 DII 8(+0) – ↑2 +4new −4ex | — | 2/100 Expensive DY 0.0% FV ₹223 -615% above | 24.0% Fib ₹1,584 (-0.5%) DZ +23.6% SZ +6.6% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 100 · Cov 20/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SAILIFE
₹1,592.20
−2.70 (-0.2%)
25-Sep-26
NIFTY PHARMA · Smallcap · 🟡 Partial Rotation ▲ RS vs Sector +19.2% SOS staleMF NEUTRAL 5mo
YTD +75.3%1Y +78.0%-6.2% from ATH
Market Cycle
False Breakout Test — Not Yet Confirmed
4dA B 263d ▶CTesting D E 88% of 52-week range
₹784 (52W Low)
₹1,697 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
RB RANGEphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
NONE
Evidence 12✓/11✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — bottom evidence weakening +0.0
★ LT Accumulation
Mixed · IQ 45
Pattern
Forming ⚠ (0w)
AVWAP↑ +55.4%
W↑ 85
Diagnostics
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 20/20
Index: Watch
Trade & Risk
⚡ HIGH-MOVEMENT · 5% big days
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 89% of 52W range (8/16 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹1,697.00. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday-0.2% · Vol 0.3× · gap -0.3% This week-0.5% · Vol contracting Past month+9.0% · vs Nifty +32% (3mo) · 52W range: 89% Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 9/150 · long-term accumulation window open ✓ Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓ Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓ Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 95/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. ✗ Mildly bearish signals — RSI 59 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗ MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top.12✓ 11✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
12
⚡ Cycle Stage ✓Volatility Climax (ATR percentile 95/100): Current daily range is larger than 85% of all bars in the past year — panic-level volatility. Historically this marks exhaustion bottoms. 📊 Price & Structure ✓Relative Strength (leading): Outperforming Nifty 50 by 94.1% over the past year — its RS vs Nifty is near a 1-year best (own-history percentile 94/100). Institutions are actively accumulating this stock; leaders recover faster and deeper than the broad market at turn-zone bottoms. ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹1584, 0.5% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 🌡 Regime ✓Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA within the past year — confirmed macro bull signal (EMA stack aligned). Safe zone to scale into long-term core positions. ✓Hurst 0.44 — mean-reverting regime; bottom-fishing signals carry higher edge here ✓Weekly bullish (RSI 85) 🏛 Institutional ✓Price is above a rising 200-day EMA, with 21 and 63-day EMAs also above it — the full EMA stack is bullish. Structural long-term accumulation by institutional money is in force. ✓DII buying QoQ (+1.2% -> 32.7%) — modest, below smart-money flow threshold 📋 Fundamentals ✓Revenue 5yr CAGR 24% — growing business; supports accumulation ✓Debt/Equity 0.1x — clean balance sheet; no debt overhang ✓Debt stable/falling with profit stable/growing (3yr trend) — no re-leveraging pattern ✓Operating margin expanding +7.3pp (3yr vs prior 3yr) — within the common range for genuine improvement
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
11
RS: Bottom 5% ⚠ ⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📊 Price & Structure ✗52W range 89% — near annual highs, distribution risk 📦 Volume & Flow ✗CLV(5d) -0.51 — sellers dominating closes, no bottom pressure yet — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 59 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗MACD Histogram Divergence (Class B (moderate)): Price made a higher high but the MACD histogram made a smaller peak — buying pressure is exhausting itself. Early warning of a top. ✗Directed RC Breakdown: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed below the lower band (20th percentile) — price contraction is confirming bearish momentum. RC crossdowns frequently precede accelerated distribution phases. ✗MACD histogram div (bear) (17d ago) — momentum diverging bearishly, caution on bounces 🏛 Institutional ✗FII selling QoQ (-1.5% -> 19.6%) ✗Sector SOS data stale (>14 days) — copy sector_intelligence_cache.json to stock_engine/cache/ to refresh 📋 Fundamentals ✗P/E 84.6x — expensive even at current price; falling knife risk ✗Profit QoQ -30% — earnings deteriorating; caution on bottom entry
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position.
Smart Money Footprint LT OPPORTUNITYUNDERWAYSporadic (27%) Turn ZoneGolden CrossHH+HL Trend ▲ Institutional Entry LevelSmart money took position ₹1,453.20 — high-delivery up-bar that institutions defended Delivery % — Multi-Timeframe (volume-weighted)
Daily delivery ▼
51.8%
+0.1σ
+0.1 vs 52% med
±1σ band 42–60%
Weekly delivery ▲
55.2%
+0.7σ
+3.1 vs 52% med
±1σ band 44–57%
Monthly delivery ▲
47.1%
-0.3σ
-4.2 vs 51% med
±1σ band 41–59%
Each timeframe judged against its own trailing baseline (daily 60-bar, weekly 26-bar, monthly 24-bar).
Sparkline dashed line = period median. Volume-weighted so heavy-volume days dominate the aggregate.
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 45 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹1,596.74
Close -0.28% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹17,046
0.67x vs normal
Turnover
0.30x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
51.8%
z-score -0.0σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.31%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.3x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Shareholding Pattern Mar 2026 → Jun 2026FII selling ↓ · DII buying ↑
Promoter34.5% →0.1% FII19.6% ↓1.5% DII32.7% ↑1.2% Public13.1% ↑0.4% Pledge0.0%→ flat DII Holders8 →↑2 +4new −4exit
Sector MF: NEUTRAL · 5mo ■ Prom■ FII■ DII■ Pub Domestic Institutional Holders Mar 2026 → Jun 20268 inst. Total holders8 (+0) Increasing stake↑ 2 New entrants+ 4 Full exits− 4 Unchanged 2 Net Accumulation — more institutions adding than reducing(quarterly) Promoter Pledge 0%Low — promoter holdings are unpledged Block Deals
NSE Activity — Institutional FlowIQ 45 · Mixed
Session VWAP
₹1,596.74
Close -0.28% vs VWAP
Avg Trade Size
₹17,046
0.67x vs normal
Turnover
0.30x
vs 20-day avg
Delivery %
51.8%
z-score -0.0σ
mth z —
Open Gap: -0.31%
▼ Supports bear case
Volume drying up (0.3x avg) and close below VWAP — the rally is losing institutional backing.
Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹1,592 Base Low ₹1,216
Swing High ₹1,697
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹1,513
₹1,457
₹1,400
38.2% SUPPORT
₹1,513
50% MIDPOINT
₹1,457
61.8% GOLDEN
₹1,400
DEMAND ZONE ₹1,216 -23.6% ₹1,235…₹1,216 SUPPLY ZONE ₹1,697 +6.6% ₹1,671…₹1,697 Critical Level
₹1,453.20(-8.7%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹1,697.00 (+6.6%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹1,216.30 (-23.6%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹1,671…1,697 ₹1,697+6.6% DEMAND ZONE band ₹1,235…1,216 ₹1,216-23.6%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Up Mid-termUp Long-termUp
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.44 (mean-reverting) · ADX 31 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
0/ 100Bot 2% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208) W: ALIGNED ↑ (8w) Top reasons Relative strength versus Nifty is improving over the last 20 sessions A Golden Cross (50-day EMA crossing above 200-day) fired recently — a classic long-term trend-confirmation signal Volatility is unusually compressed versus its own recent history — energy is coiling for a move Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
4
/ 100
Bot 8% of RANGE_BOUND (n=208)
▼ -4.2
G1 event 4 · G3 div 3 · G6 setup 1 · RS RS -3 Top reasons bc_ar_weak: AR vol < 50% of BC — weak distribution follow-through (+3) MACD is diverging bearishly from price — momentum is quietly weakening beneath the surface Volatility is compressed versus its own recent history
Institutional Quality
45
/ 100
Mixed
Coil Energy Score
9
/ 150
Bias votes:▼––––▼–––0↑ 2↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Delivery has been consistently one-directional over the last 15 days Repeated high-volume, price-holds-steady bars recently — buyers/sellers absorbing supply in a cluster, not just once
Valuation
2
/ 100
Expensive
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
FAIR VALUE (GRAHAM NUMBER)ⓘ ₹223 615.3% above fair value
Momentum
88
/ 100
Strong Momentum
Top 12% of 89 Smallcap
MOMENTUM, BUT EXPENSIVE
EMA Trend Regime
↑↑↑
Bull-aligned
Mid: Up
Long: Up
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bullish vs EMA 200+33.4% above Weekly RSI59 Monthly ADX31 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.44 — mean-reverting NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BULLISH Mean-reverting (H=0.44) RSI 59 ⬆ GX 238d +86.1% MACD Div ▼ (17d ago) Long-Term Compounding Case Insufficient price history to assign a long-term compounding archetype. FII -1.5% QoQ DII +1.2% QoQ P/E 84.6× Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Archetype: Not classified (insufficient history) · Governance: clean
▸ FUNDAMENTALS
MCap ₹31K CrMargin 3v3yr +7.3ppP/E 84.6xP/B 13.6xROE 15%ROCE 20%D/E 0.1xRev 5yr +24%/yrPft 5yr +42%/yrRev QoQ -8.0%Pft QoQ -29.8%
Current Snapshot Return on Equity 15% ROCE 20% Sales Growth (QoQ) -8% Debt / Equity 0.12x CFO/EBITDA 61% Preconditions Archetype Not classified Trajectory Profit 5yr CAGR +42% Rev 5yr CAGR +24% Margin 3v3yr +7.3pp Debt Trend -0.47x Cash-Flow Stage Mature CFO / CFI / CFF + / − / − Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Valuation Context P/B Ratio 13.6x Governance Gate Promoter Pledge 0% Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SymbolName · Range · Price | Turn Zone SignalWatch Bottom · Exit · Neutral | StageVerdict · Phase · Track | CESCoil Energy | Smart MoneyIQ · delivery · ATS | Long-Term CaseArchetype · Decline | ValuationScore | Fib / S·RNear support or resistance | VerdictAction · Timing | CoverageUpdate · Sources | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty Auto ▼ LT OPP ₹23,56054%₹29,866 ₹26,968 +0.9% | Watch Bottom | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 19/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 23 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 89.0% Fib ₹27,063 (+0.3%) DZ +2.7% | WAIT Evidence fading — re-entry risk | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty Energy ▼ ₹32,89051%₹41,829 ₹37,440 +0.2% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 17/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 32 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Mild Shallow decline — weak turnaround signal | N/A | 100.0% Fib ₹37,505 (+0.2%) Darvas Box: ₹37,505 (tested 2×) – ₹41,829 (tested 2×) DZ +11.9% SZ +2.9% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty FinServ ▲ ₹23,37433%₹28,562 ₹25,095 +0.6% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 11/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 21 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Mild Shallow decline — weak turnaround signal | N/A | 100.0% Fib ₹25,057 (-0.1%) Darvas Box: ₹24,531 (tested 2×) – ₹27,127 (tested 2×) DZ +2.2% SZ +5.6% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Nifty FinServ
₹25,094.85
+140.70 (+0.6%)
25-Sep-26
🟡 Partial Rotation
YTD -9.1%1Y -6.0%3Y +28.1%5Y +46.3%-12.1% from ATH
33% of 52-week range
₹23,374 (52W Low)
₹28,562 (52W High)
Stage
CONSOLIDATION
TURNAROUND · MILD
RB RANGEINDEXphase: NONE
NEUTRAL
Evidence
NONE
Evidence 7✓/9✗
▼ BTZ DECAYING — bottom evidence weakening -1.9
Weak Money Flow · IQ 21
Pattern
Established (6w)
Sqz↓
W↓ 43
Diagnostics
DQ 40/100
⚠ Price data (1 spike)
Cov 10/20
Trade & Risk
◯ UNANCHOREDNo panic-selling anchor — stage labels and BTZ G1 are structural estimates only. Range-Bound — No Clear Setup·Consolidation in progress·No directional edge·Watch: breakout above range for entry ◆ Trading Sideways — No Clear Edge Either Way · 33% of 52W range (3/8 indicators aligned) This stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. It has pulled back modestly (<30%), qualifying as a turnaround setup — a mild correction — watch for deeper structural evidence before sizing up. No clear edge visible — this stock is trading in a neutral range, without confident signs of buying or selling pressure. Backdrop: consolidation. This sideways stage has historically lasted a median of 2 weeks; 78% chance it's still in this stage next week, based on 30182 similar cases. ⚠ Confirms above ₹26,494.90. CONSOLIDATION Neither accumulation nor distribution signals have crossed conviction thresholds (no clear directional edge — both sides below conviction thresholds). Wait for a breakout above resistance or breakdown below support to define the next move. Recent Movement Yesterday+0.6% · Vol 0.9× This week-1.6% · Vol normal Past month-4.9% · vs Nifty -2% (3mo) · 52W range: 33%monthly trend bullish (updated slowly) Stage checkCONSOLIDATIONCES 11/150 ✓ Approaching a demand (support) zone 2.2% below at ₹24,530.80 — watch for a bounce. ✓ Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. ✓ Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. ✗ Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. ✗ Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions.7✓ 9✗ — see full breakdown ↓
Market Alignment
— No Active Setup
SUPPORTING
7
RS: Top 37% 📊 Price & Structure ✓Price testing prior swing low (₹25057, 0.1% below) — structural support ✓Price near Fibonacci support (₹25057, 0.1% away) — confluence with technical level — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✓Directed RC Breakout: the 20-bar directed Range Classifier score crossed above the upper band (80th percentile) — price expansion is confirming a new bullish leg. RC momentum crossovers historically precede sustained trending moves by several bars. 🌡 Regime ✓Approaching a demand (support) zone 2.2% below at ₹24,530.80 — watch for a bounce. ✓Weekly bearish (RSI 43) 🏛 Institutional ✓Monthly Trend (bullish): The monthly EMA-12 is above EMA-26 and close is above EMA-12 — macro institutional trend is up. Long-term structural tailwind in force. 🕯 Pattern ✓Fibonacci Support: nearest Fibonacci level is 0.1% below current price (at 25057). Price resting just above a Fibonacci retracement is a classic entry zone for trend continuation — institutions reference these levels when placing buy orders.
CONTRADICTING / RISKS
9
⚡ Cycle Stage ✗▼ Accumulation strength fading — buy pressure declining. 📊 Price & Structure ✗Market Structure: confirmed downtrend (LH+LL). ATR-adaptive swing analysis shows Lower Highs and Lower Lows — structural price trend is bearish, adding resistance to any rally. — Confirming indicators 〰 Momentum ✗Mildly bearish signals — RSI 37 (neutral), MACD below signal. ✗TTM Squeeze firing ↓ 🌡 Regime ✗Death Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA — confirmed macro bear signal (EMA stack aligned). Review holdings, trim weaker positions. ✗EMA200 falling — price -4% below, structural downtrend ✗Death Cross active (25w ago) — macro bear structure 🏛 Institutional ✗Price is below a declining 200-day EMA — the long-term institutional baseline is pointing down. Avoid new long positions regardless of valuation; this is a distribution environment. 🕯 Pattern ✗Weekly candle: conflicting signals — both bull and bear patterns fired; no clear directional read
Key watch: No clear directional thesis. Monitor for a panic-selling peak or false breakdown (bottom) or a buying frenzy peak / rally losing steam (top) to establish a position. Macro backdrop: FII flows bullish over the last 5d (₹+5,950 Cr net); VIX 12.7 (normal).
Smart Money Footprint LONG-TERM COMPOUNDING CASEA-Turnaround · Mild decline · 12% off ATH Not ApplicableSmart Money delivery evidence does not apply to indices/ETFs — no NSE bhav-copy delivery data exists for a market composite. NOT APPLICABLE Turnover, ATS block-trade, and delivery % activity metrics do not apply to indices/ETFs — no NSE feed exists for a market composite. G5 Institutional Evidence = 0 pts by design. Block Deals NOT APPLICABLE Turnover, ATS block-trade, and delivery % activity metrics do not apply to indices/ETFs — no NSE feed exists for a market composite. G5 Institutional Evidence = 0 pts by design. Price & Critical Levels
Fibonacci Retracement
Above 38.2% — shallow pullback; momentum still strong
₹25,095 Base Low ₹25,057
Swing High ₹26,495
38.2%
50%
61.8%
₹25,946
₹25,776
₹25,606
38.2% SUPPORT
₹25,946
50% MIDPOINT
₹25,776
61.8% GOLDEN
₹25,606
DEMAND ZONE ₹24,531 -2.2% ₹24,745…₹24,531 SUPPLY ZONE ₹26,495 +5.6% ₹26,362…₹26,495 Critical Level
₹24,901.10(-0.8%) Your stop-loss / thesis invalidation — close below this and the setup is off. ► ENTRY TRIGGER₹26,494.90 (+5.6%) ▼ BREAKDOWN TRIGGER₹24,530.80 (-2.2%) SUPPLY ZONE band ₹26,362…26,495 ₹26,495+5.6% DEMAND ZONE band ₹24,745…24,531 ₹24,531-2.2%
Structural reference levels from real chart history, not a guaranteed
forecast — price can move well beyond, or reverse well before,
reaching any of these.
Support, Resistance & EMAs
Key Levels — tested support & resistance
ⓘ Tests = approach episodes counted from each zone's own formation date.
A deeper zone formed earlier can have more tests than a shallower zone formed recently — this is expected.
EMA Trend Regime — ribbon & dynamic levels
ImmediateStrong Down Mid-termDown Long-termDown
LOW CONFIDENCE
Hurst 0.52 (random walk) · ADX 25 (strong trend) — both required above threshold for HIGH confidence
Darvas Box — 20wk range
INSIDE BOX
Top: ₹27,127 (2× tested)
Bottom: ₹24,531 (2× tested)
Width: 10.6%
Classic read: accumulate near the box bottom (₹24,531), wait for a confirmed close above the box top (₹27,127) before treating a breakout as validated — the box alone is a range description, not an entry signal.
Turn Zone & Institutional Quality Scores
Bottom Turn Zone
3/ 100 W: COUNTER ↓ G2 zone 3 · G6 setup 1 Top reasons Price is near a known demand zone This base has been developing for a meaningful stretch — more time usually means a more genuine institutional cause Peak Turn Zone✓ Low = good
8
/ 100
▼ -2.1
G4 osc 4 · G3 div 2 · G6 setup 2 Top reasons mth_macd_bear (+2.2) [ptz_pos_mult=0.73] Monthly ADX confirms a strong uptrend is in force — top exhaustion is more likely from here A Death Cross (50-day EMA crossing below 200-day) fired recently — a classic long-term trend-breakdown signal
Institutional Quality
21
/ 71 eff.
Bot 19% in universe
Weak Money Flow
Coil Energy Score
11
/ 150
Bias votes:–▲––––▼––1↑ 1↓ → NEUTRAL
FORMING
Top reasons Volatility has stayed compressed for a sustained stretch, not just a single quiet day The TTM Squeeze indicator has just fired — the compression is releasing, direction unclear yet
EMA Trend Regime
↓↓↓
Bear-aligned
Mid: Down
Long: Down
LOW CONFIDENCE
Technical Signals EMA stack (10/21/63)Aligned bearish vs EMA 200-4.2% below Weekly RSI37 MACD (weekly)Bear cross Monthly ADX25 — strong trend Hurst exponent0.52 — random walk NEUTRAL Ranging / Sideways Trend BEARISH No clear momentum (H=0.52) RSI 37 ⬇ DX 123d +3.0% Long-Term Compounding Case A beaten-down business, but not yet at the depth the framework validates as an optimal entry point. Long-Term Compounding — Full Detail Historical decline pattern: Mild (12% off ATH) · Governance: clean Preconditions Archetype Historical Decline (Mild) Currently Unloved 12% — not a confirming signal Max Drawdown (vs Index) -20% Structural Tailwind Not assessed Only a mild prior decline: 20% peak-to-trough — ~0% eventually reached 10x+ in backtest — not a real turnaround setup at this depth Forward Case Not shown — track RANGE_BOUND: trough-period ROCE would mislead a forward-growth estimate for this track. Only shown for B_BOTTOM/D_MARKUP/C_REACCUMULATION. Note: this framework cannot detect governance failures (auditor resignation, related-party concerns, delayed filings) — DHFL, Jet Airways, Reliance Capital and PC Jeweller all matched a "beaten-down, real business" profile and went to zero. Verify manually. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Nifty FMCG ▼ ₹44,8269%₹57,445 ₹45,941 +0.4% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 15/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 4 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Mild Shallow decline — weak turnaround signal | N/A | 79.0% Fib ₹45,946 (+0.0%) DZ +2.4% SZ +14.1% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty Infra ▼ ₹8,42739%₹9,793 ₹8,957 +0.1% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 20/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 19 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Mild Shallow decline — weak turnaround signal | N/A | 62.0% Fib ₹8,965 (+0.1%) Darvas Box: ₹9,010 (tested 4×) – ₹9,573 (tested 2×) DZ +0.8% SZ +6.2% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty IT ▼ ₹25,69917%₹40,301 ₹28,161 -0.2% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 9/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 5 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 127.0% Fib ₹27,779 (-1.4%) DZ +4.1% SZ +13.1% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty Metal ▼ ₹9,86879%₹13,931 ₹13,087 +0.3% | Watch Exit | Watch · Exit Zone Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 16/150 FORMING | Mixed · 35 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 62.0% Fib ₹13,052 (-0.3%) DZ +6.0% SZ +2.7% | REDUCE Distribution active — reduce exposure | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty Pharma ▼ ₹21,15096%₹27,255 ₹27,003 -0.1% | Watch Exit | Watch · Exit Zone Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 17/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 32 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 24.0% Fib ₹26,874 (-0.5%) DZ +4.2% SZ +0.7% | REDUCE Distribution active — reduce exposure | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty Realty ▼ ₹63969%₹974 ₹869 +0.9% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 14/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 18 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 50.0% Fib ₹867 (-0.3%) DZ +7.3% SZ +6.7% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position Hammer | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty 500 ▼ ₹20,38659%₹24,144 ₹22,604 +0.2% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 18/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 22 OBV↑MFI↑ | B-Compounder No major past decline — quality compounder | N/A | 79.0% Fib ₹22,655 (+0.2%) DZ +1.1% SZ +6.8% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position Hammer | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bank Nifty ▼ ₹49,95548%₹61,765 ₹55,580 +0.3% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 13/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 19 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 100.0% Fib ₹55,699 (+0.2%) Darvas Box: ₹55,699 (tested 3×) – ₹58,706 (tested 2×) DZ +4.6% SZ +5.4% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Nifty 50 ▼ ₹22,18323%₹26,373 ₹23,140 +0.3% | Neutral | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 18/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 12 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Moderate Real past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 100.0% Fib ₹23,606 (+2.0%) Darvas Box: ₹23,070 (tested 2×) – ₹24,774 (tested 3×) DZ +4.1% SZ +14.0% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 25-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Crude Oil(Y) ▼ ₹5561%₹119 ₹95 +2.7% | Neutral ⚡ HiVol 5% | Consolidation Stopping the Decline — First signs of buying RangeNo event | 8/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 32 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Severe Deep past decline — re-rating story | N/A | 62.0% Fib ₹96 (+1.1%) DZ +29.1% SZ +12.8% | HOLD Range-bound — no new position | 24-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Gold(Y) ▼ ₹3,91423%₹5,586 ₹4,298 -0.5% | Watch Bottom | Accumulation · Forming Building the Base — Institutions accumulating RangeNo event | 24/150 FORMING | Weak Money Flow · 34 OBV↑MFI↑ | A · Mild Shallow decline — weak turnaround signal | N/A | 100.0% Fib ₹4,273 (-0.6%) IN DZ SZ +10.6% | CONFLICT Engine signal mismatch ↑ ACCELERATING Hammer | 24-Sep-26 Price Deliv FII Shp Fund DQ 40 · Cov 10/20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| SymbolName · Range · Price | Turn Zone SignalWatch Bottom · Exit · Neutral | StageVerdict · Phase · Track | CESCoil Energy | Smart MoneyIQ · delivery · ATS | Long-Term CaseArchetype · Decline | ValuationScore | Fib / S·RNear support or resistance | VerdictAction · Timing | CoverageUpdate · Sources |
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| SymbolName · Range · Price | Turn Zone SignalWatch Bottom · Exit · Neutral | StageVerdict · Phase · Track | CESCoil Energy | Smart MoneyIQ · delivery · ATS | Long-Term CaseArchetype · Decline | ValuationScore | Fib / S·RNear support or resistance | VerdictAction · Timing | CoverageUpdate · Sources |
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| SymbolName · Range · Price | Turn Zone SignalWatch Bottom · Exit · Neutral | StageVerdict · Phase · Track | CESCoil Energy | Smart MoneyIQ · delivery · ATS | Long-Term CaseArchetype · Decline | ValuationScore | Fib / S·RNear support or resistance | VerdictAction · Timing | CoverageUpdate · Sources |
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